GOP Plots New Trump Supreme Court Pick Before Midterms | Elie Mystal | TMR

There is strong speculation that Justice Samuel Alito is being pressured by Republicans to retire before the upcoming midterms. This is based on his age (76), his known dislike for Washington D.C., and his desire to be replaced by a like-minded conservative. The timing of his new book release (October 3rd, after the Supreme Court term begins) is seen as a significant indicator that he may not plan to be actively working in October. Public statements from Republican Senators like John Thune, explicitly stating the Senate's readiness to confirm a nominee before the midterms, are interpreted as direct signals to Alito.

Elie Mystal notes Alito is '76 years old and he notoriously does not like Washington DC,' and that his book release on 'October 3rd, 2026' is 'weird for a justice to release a book right at the beginning of the term.' Sam Seder highlights John Thune's public statements about being 'ready to appoint your successor' as a 'flag' to Alito. Mystal adds, 'Thoon doesn't have to come out and say, 'We're going to try to do this.'... The upside is putting pressure on Alita.'

Unlike Alito, Justice Clarence Thomas is highly unlikely to retire voluntarily. His motivation is rooted in a deep love for the power and attention of the job, and a personal ambition to become the longest-serving Supreme Court Justice in history, a record he could achieve by 2028. His personality suggests a focus on immediate self-interest rather than concern for his legacy or who replaces him.

Mystal states, 'I personally think Clarence Thomas is leaving a coffin. I don't think he will ever willingly retire from that job.' He adds that Thomas 'becomes the longest serving Supreme Court justice ever' if he 'hangs on to 2028,' and 'I believe that is a record he wants.'

Democrats need to proactively educate their caucus and the American public about potential Republican judicial nominees. The focus should be on exposing nominees' problematic legal records, particularly concerning corruption and extreme religiosity, rather than relying on personal conduct allegations (like sexual assault) which Republicans have shown they will disregard. Public outrage, if sufficiently mobilized, could still potentially derail a nomination, even with limited procedural power.

Mystal suggests Democrats should 'educate first my own caucus and then the American people about who these people are.' He notes that 'sexual assault is not going to be the thing because the Republicans have already onboarded that as an okay thing.' Instead, 'corruption still is fertile ground' and 'the religiosity is something that you can especially in this current environment that you can kind of bring out of them.'

Leaked memos reveal that the Supreme Court's 'shadow docket' – the use of emergency orders without full briefing or oral argument – originated from Chief Justice John Roberts' political and economic concerns. Specifically, Roberts sought an emergency stay on the Obama-era Clean Power Plan not due to legal arguments, but because he feared it would cause his 'rich buddies' to lose billions of dollars, even temporarily. This demonstrates a politicization of judicial process at its inception.

Mystal explains that the leaks show 'the very birth of the shadow docket that we are now all living with starts because John Roberts had a political problem with the Barack Obama policy.' He states, 'There's no law in there at all. It's all politics. It's all economics.' Roberts was 'so worried about his rich buddies losing some money in the interim that he changed the entire way the Supreme Court operates.'

Donald Trump's judicial appointments are increasingly influenced by personal loyalty and appearance rather than strict adherence to Federalist Society doctrine. Following a falling out with Leonard Leo, Trump is expected to prioritize nominees who demonstrate extreme personal loyalty and fit a specific aesthetic, such as 'square jaws' for men and a 'Mara Lago face' for women, rather than purely legal qualifications.

Mystal notes that the Federalist Society is 'kind of on the outs' with Trump. He identifies Mike Davis as a new key influencer. Emma Vigland jokes about Trump picking judges based on attractiveness, to which Mystal responds, 'You are not wrong to ask that question because that is a a legit question when it comes to Donald Trump. He wants a judge to look a certain way.' He specifically mentions Jennifer Mascot's 'makeover' as a potential factor.