LIVE: Israel Assassination Targets IRGC Leader - Iranian Missiles Launched At Kuwait
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a targeted assassination of an IRGC Quds Force commander, Ali Al-Husseini, in Beirut.
- ❖Iran's IRGC launched missiles and drones towards Kuwait, with one missile targeting a US airbase, in retaliation for US attacks in Bandar Abbas.
- ❖The US military intercepted Iranian drones targeting a commercial ship and pre-emptively struck an Iranian drone launching unit.
- ❖The US Treasury sanctioned Iran's newly created 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' (PGSA), linking it to the IRGC and discouraging international payments.
- ❖The US naval blockade is reportedly costing the Iranian regime $450 million daily, or $12-13 billion monthly, risking severe food shortages within 5-6 months.
- ❖Iran has deployed foreign mercenaries (from Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan) to patrol its cities, anticipating mass unrest due to economic hardship.
- ❖Mainstream media, particularly Axios, is criticized for consistently reporting 'imminent' or 'agreed' US-Iran deals that lack confirmation or presidential approval.
Insights
1Israeli Assassination of IRGC Commander in Beirut
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) carried out a targeted assassination of Ali Al-Husseini, the head of the missile unit of the IRGC's Imam Hussein division, in Beirut. This marks a significant escalation, as it is the first time clashes have broken out in Beirut since a previous ceasefire, and it occurred after the US president reportedly gave Israel 'green light' for such retaliatory attacks.
The IDF confirmed targeting Ali Al-Husseini, responsible for missile and rocket operations from the Beirut area. The host noted this was the first time clashes broke out in Beirut since the ceasefire.
2Iranian Retaliatory Attacks on Kuwait and US Assets
Following US military strikes in Bandar Abbas, Iran's IRGC launched a wave of missiles and drones from Iranian territory towards neighboring Kuwait. One missile targeted a US airbase in Kuwait, though no injuries were reported. Earlier, the IRGC also fired four suicide drones at a US commercial ship, which were intercepted by US forces, who then struck an Iranian drone launching unit pre-emptively.
IRGC missiles and drones launched towards Kuwait, with one missile targeting a US airbase. US Central Command reported Iran launched a ballistic missile towards Kuwait, intercepted by Kuwaiti forces, and five one-way attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz, intercepted by US forces.
3US Sanctions Cripple Iran's Strait of Hormuz Authority
The US Treasury imposed massive sanctions on Iran's newly formed 'Persian Gulf Strait Authority' (PGSA), adding it to the specially designated nationals list under counterterrorism authorities and explicitly linking it to the IRGC. This move aims to discourage international vessels from paying any fees to this new Iranian body, effectively freezing any money it might generate and further suffocating the regime's finances.
The US Treasury targeted the PGSA with massive sanctions, adding it to the specially designated nationals list and linking it to the IRGC. This discourages international vessels from paying fees to the new body.
4Economic Collapse and Internal Instability in Iran
The US naval blockade is inflicting severe economic damage on Iran, reportedly costing the regime $450 million per day, or $12-13 billion per month. This pressure could lead to severe food shortages within 5-6 months, potentially triggering mass unrest. In anticipation, the Iranian regime has deployed foreign mercenaries from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to patrol cities and suppress potential protests, as Iranian IRGC members are not being paid.
Political analyst Tommy Morak stated the blockade costs the IRGC $12-13 billion a month. Data suggests food shortages within 5-6 months. The host reported proxy militants from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan are patrolling Iranian streets with guns.
Bottom Line
The Iranian regime is prioritizing payment to foreign mercenaries over its own IRGC members, indicating a deep mistrust of its domestic forces and a desperate attempt to maintain control through external loyalty.
This strategy highlights the regime's internal fragility and reliance on external, less loyal forces, which could become a point of failure if funds for mercenaries dry up.
External actors seeking to destabilize the Iranian regime could exploit this dynamic by targeting the financial lifelines to these mercenary groups or by fostering dissent within unpaid domestic forces.
China's 'pick up the pieces' foreign policy in conflicts, as observed in Russia-Ukraine and Syria, suggests it will not strongly commit to allies like Iran if the regime appears to be failing, positioning itself to benefit from post-conflict reconstruction regardless of the victor.
This implies that Iran cannot rely on unwavering Chinese support in a prolonged conflict or internal collapse, as China's primary interest is economic opportunity rather than ideological alliance.
Western powers can leverage this Chinese pragmatism by presenting post-conflict economic opportunities that align with China's 'pick up the pieces' strategy, potentially influencing China's stance on supporting the current Iranian regime.
Lessons
- Monitor the Strait of Hormuz for real-time shipping traffic and disruptions, as it remains a critical choke point and indicator of regional tensions.
- Evaluate the reliability of mainstream media reports on US-Iran negotiations, especially those from outlets like Axios, by cross-referencing with official statements and observing actual policy changes.
- Analyze the economic indicators within Iran, such as inflation and food supply, as these are key drivers of potential mass unrest and regime instability, which could have regional spillover effects.
Quotes
"The Islamic occupation regime of Iran is losing up to a 450 million dollars a day under the US naval blockade as the pressure has become more damaging than renewed air strikes."
"The Chinese Communist Party are not loyal to anybody. So, even their so-called alliance and friendship with Russia and the Islamic Republic in Iran is always conditional, and it's always based on paranoia."
"If the Iranian people right now open the doors of their houses to come out to the streets, there are a bunch of people from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iraq who are standing outside the door on the streets with guns pointing it at anybody who's suspicious."
Q&A
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