Iran Experts: Fired. FBI Chief: Blacked Out. Good Luck, Y'all! (w/ Bill Kristol) | Bulwark Podcast
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Trump's 'unreliable narrator' approach to Iran diplomacy led to immediate instability and renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- ❖Senior military officials reportedly excluded Trump from critical meetings during the airmen rescue in Iran, fearing his impetuousness.
- ❖FBI Director Cash Patel is accused of severe alcohol abuse, including instances where his security detail needed 'breaching equipment' to access him.
- ❖The US's global standing is eroding, with key allies like Canada, Germany, France, and Britain showing a preference for China over the US under Trump.
- ❖The fight over Section 702 spy powers is complicated by concerns that a Trump administration, with figures like Cash Patel, could abuse such authority.
- ❖Speculation about Supreme Court retirements (Alito, Thomas) is high, with Democrats preparing for a potential 'Merrick Garland rule' if the Senate flips.
- ❖Democratic messaging, exemplified by Jon Ossoff, is effectively tying Trump's corruption and 'kleptocracy' to middle-class economic struggles.
Insights
1Trump's Unreliable Diplomacy and Iran Instability
Trump's public misrepresentations of an Iran deal, claiming the Strait of Hormuz was 'open forever,' were immediately contradicted by Iran's actions, including firing on merchant ships and re-closing the strait. This 'unreliable narrator' approach, as Bill Kristol describes it, has undermined US credibility and increased Iran's leverage, leading to escalating threats from Trump.
Trump's claim about the Strait of Hormuz being 'open forever' lasted less than 24 hours before Iran re-closed it and fired on ships. Trump later threatened to 'knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran.'
2Internal White House Dysfunction During Crisis
During a critical incident where airmen were shot down in Iran, senior military officials reportedly kept President Trump out of key decision-making meetings. This was due to concerns that his 'impatient and impetuous and reckless' presence would hinder sound judgment, highlighting a profound distrust in the Commander-in-Chief's ability to manage a crisis.
A Wall Street Journal piece reported that senior officials 'managed to keep Trump out of the meeting' during the airmen rescue, only providing him updates, because they believed his presence would make 'reasonable and sound decision-making impossible.'
3FBI Director's Alleged Alcohol Abuse and Security Risks
FBI Director Cash Patel is accused of severe alcohol abuse, frequently drinking to obvious intoxication at private clubs. This behavior has led to rescheduled meetings and, alarmingly, instances where his security detail struggled to wake him, even requiring 'breaching equipment' to access his locked room, raising serious national security and operational concerns.
Sarah Fitzpatrick's Atlantic report details Patel's drinking habits at Neds in Washington D.C. and the Poodle Room in Las Vegas. It states that 'members of his security detail had difficulty waking Patel because he was intoxicated' and 'a request for breaching equipment... was made last year because Patel had been unreachable behind locked doors.'
4Shifting Global Alliances and China's Growing Influence
The US's standing among its traditional allies is weakening under Trump, with polls indicating a preference for dependence on China over the US. This shift is also seen in Gulf States, who are reassessing investments and looking to China, which is strategically positioning itself as a stable global player in contrast to the US's erratic leadership.
A political poll revealed that citizens in Canada (57% to 23%), Germany (40% to 24%), France (34% to 25%), and Britain (42% to 34%) favor dependence on China over the US under Trump. China publicly called for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened, aiming to project stability.
5The Weaponization of Justice and Intimidation Tactics
The Department of Justice and FBI are increasingly being politicized, with figures like Todd Blanch and Joe DeGenova pursuing cases against Trump's perceived enemies. This includes appointing an 81-year-old lawyer who previously called for executions to prosecute a former DNI, signaling a clear intent to intimidate and run up legal bills, regardless of the legal merits.
Todd Blanch replaced Pam Bondi, and Joe DeGenova, who once called for the execution of Chris Krebs, was brought in as special assistant for the Miami prosecution of James Clapper. Patel's threat to sue The Atlantic for defamation is seen as an intimidation tactic.
6JD Vance's Condescending Critique of the Pope
JD Vance, a recent convert to Catholicism, publicly criticized the Pope for not being 'careful' enough when discussing 'just war theory,' despite the Pope's deep theological authority. This incident highlights Vance's perceived arrogance and tendency to lecture, even figures of immense moral and historical standing.
JD Vance stated, 'It's very, very important for the Pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology,' specifically regarding the Pope's comments on God not being on the side of those who wield the sword.
Bottom Line
The reported exclusion of Trump from critical military decision-making during a crisis sets a dangerous precedent, indicating a deep-seated distrust within the national security apparatus towards its own Commander-in-Chief. This could lead to a shadow government operating outside formal chains of command in future crises.
This informal circumvention of presidential authority, while potentially preventing immediate catastrophe, fundamentally undermines democratic principles and creates a system where unelected officials make critical decisions, potentially without accountability or transparency.
This situation highlights the urgent need for robust constitutional mechanisms or internal checks to manage an erratic executive, rather than relying on ad-hoc, extra-legal measures that could be abused by future administrations.
The alleged severe alcohol abuse by the FBI Director, coupled with his unreachability and the need for security to forcibly enter his residence, points to a profound vulnerability in national security leadership. This is not merely a personal issue but a systemic risk to the operational integrity and responsiveness of a critical agency.
Such conduct at the highest levels of law enforcement compromises the FBI's ability to respond to immediate threats, makes the director susceptible to blackmail or influence, and erodes public and internal trust in the institution's leadership.
This necessitates a review of fitness-for-duty standards and oversight mechanisms for top national security appointments, ensuring that personal conduct does not create unacceptable risks for the nation.
Lessons
- Pay close attention to the Virginia redistricting referendum and similar state-level efforts, as they represent critical battles for democratic fairness and partisan advantage.
- Monitor the reauthorization debate around Section 702 spy powers, advocating for safeguards like warrant requirements for American communications, especially given concerns about potential abuse by politicized agencies.
- Support political candidates and movements that explicitly tie government corruption and 'kleptocracy' to economic struggles, as this messaging strategy has proven effective in mobilizing diverse voter bases.
Quotes
"If Iran doesn't accept a deal, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran. No more Mr. Nice Guy."
"This is a crazy way to do diplomacy on something this consequential, and it has to be telling the Iranians that he's desperate for an off-ramp, which only increases their leverage."
"The US keeping the president... out of the meeting basically. Occasionally they gave him updates because senior officials... thought that Trump's presence there would make it impossible to have reasonable and sound decision-making."
"A request for breaching equipment normally used by SWAT and hostage rescue teams was made last year because Patel had been unreachable behind locked doors."
"When the Pope says that God is never on the side of those who wield the sword, there is a thousand-year more than a thousand-year tradition of just war theory... it's very, very important for the Pope to be careful when he talks about matters of theology."
Q&A
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