Pepe Escobar & Larry C. Johnson: Trump is LOSING Control - Iran WIPES OUT Strategic Military Targets
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖European and Australian allies rejected Trump's request for a flotilla to the Strait of Hormuz, citing it as 'not our war' and expressing concerns about a wider conflict.
- ❖Iran has established an 'invisible toll gate' in the Strait of Hormuz, granting free passage only to friendly nations (like China and Bangladesh) and blocking hostile interests (US, Israel, NATO).
- ❖The petrodollar, described as a 'mafia-style scheme' since 1974, is collapsing as Iran's control over the Strait disrupts global oil trade and insurance.
- ❖US and Israeli air defense missile inventories (THAAD, Patriot) are depleted, rendering them unable to effectively counter Iran's sustained missile barrages.
- ❖China has been 'gaming the chessboard' by building alternative financial systems (CIPS) and strategic partnerships, positioning itself to benefit from the petrodollar's decline.
- ❖Iran is not seeking a ceasefire or negotiations and is confident in its ability to sustain the war indefinitely, while the Trump administration lacks a clear end-game.
- ❖Trump's claims of Iranian military destruction and 'AI-generated' boats are dismissed as false, with evidence showing Iranian military capabilities and public support.
- ❖The conflict in Ukraine and West Asia are seen as parts of the 'same war' against the BRICS nations (Russia, Iran, China) by the US-led empire.
- ❖The US military 'protection umbrella' for GCC countries is perceived as dead, potentially leading these states to seek new security partners like Russia and China.
Insights
1Iran's 'Invisible Toll Gate' in Strait of Hormuz
Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz for any ship with US, Israeli, or hostile NATO interests, while allowing free passage for friendly nations like China and Bangladesh. This is achieved without a physical blockade, but through a system of negotiation and implied threat, turning the Strait into an 'invisible toll gate.'
Pepe Escobar details how Iran's IRGC monitors an 'exact line' that tankers cannot cross, threatening drones against violators. He cites Bangladesh and China as examples of countries that secured free passage through deals with Iran.
2Petrodollar's Demise Accelerated by Iran's Actions
The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz is a 'financially nuclear' blow to the petrodollar system, which has sustained US hegemony since 1974 by mandating oil trade in USD and reinvestment in the US economy. This move disrupts the global financial mechanism that funds US military and debt.
Pepe Escobar explains the petrodollar as a 'massive scam' () where GCC/OPEC countries were forced to trade oil in USD and invest profits in the US economy (). Iran's control over the Strait, where 20% of global oil moves, directly undermines this system ().
3Depletion of US/Israeli Air Defense Capabilities
US and Israeli air defense systems, specifically THAAD and Patriot missiles (Pack 3s), are depleted or nearly depleted. This leaves Israel and US interests in the region highly vulnerable to Iran's continuous ballistic and cruise missile attacks, which have been launched in over 52 waves.
Larry Johnson states that the US is 'out effectively out now of THAAD missiles and Patriot 3, the Pack 3es' (). He provides a detailed calculation of Patriot missile production (4,620 since 2015) versus consumption (at least 1,000 in Ukraine, 600 in Iran war's first 15 days), concluding they are depleted (). He also notes Iran's destruction of US radars in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan, 'blinding' Israel ().
4Global Allies Refuse US Military Intervention
Key US allies, including Germany, Australia, the UK, and France, have explicitly refused to send naval vessels to join a US-led flotilla to the Strait of Hormuz. Their reasons range from 'not our war' to unwillingness to be drawn into a wider conflict, indicating significant international isolation for the US.
The host, Nema, quotes statements from German, Australian, UK, and French governments rejecting Trump's request for military support in the Strait of Hormuz (). Pepe Escobar attributes this to allies understanding the risks and the 'massive black void' of casualties ().
5China's Strategic 'Gaming of the Chessboard'
China has been systematically building an alternative international system through multilateral organizations, the Belt and Road Initiative, and its CIPS payment system. This long-term strategy positions China to benefit from the current geopolitical shifts, especially the decline of the petrodollar, without direct military confrontation.
Pepe Escobar describes China's proactive diplomacy since Xi Jinping came to power, expanding BRICS, SCO, and BRI (). He highlights CIPS as an alternative payment system used by Iran and over 150 nations, enabling trade in yuan and bypassing the dollar ().
Bottom Line
The collapse of the petrodollar and US military hegemony creates a vacuum for new security umbrellas and financial systems, particularly for GCC states and the Global South.
GCC petro-monarchies, previously reliant on US protection, will need to re-evaluate their alliances. This could lead to a significant shift towards Russia and China for security and economic partnerships, further isolating the US.
Nations and businesses in the Global South can capitalize on the emergence of the petro-yuan and alternative payment systems (like CIPS) to conduct trade outside the US-dominated financial architecture, reducing exposure to US sanctions and economic leverage.
Iran's non-retaliation against water infrastructure attacks, despite its own desalination plant being hit, is rooted in Shia Islamic principles, contrasting with Western assumptions of indiscriminate warfare.
This reveals a moral and strategic restraint by Iran that is often misunderstood or ignored by Western analysts, who tend to dehumanize the enemy. This miscalculation can lead to flawed strategic planning and underestimation of Iran's resolve and principles.
Understanding these deeply held cultural and religious principles can inform more effective diplomatic and strategic engagement, potentially identifying areas for de-escalation or negotiation that align with Iran's moral framework, rather than purely military or economic pressure.
Key Concepts
Invisible Toll Gate
Iran has effectively installed a non-physical toll gate in the Strait of Hormuz, controlling passage based on a nation's relationship with Iran rather than a monetary fee. This concept illustrates a strategic, non-military control over a critical global choke point.
Gaming the Chessboard (Go Analogy)
China's long-term strategy involves building multilateral organizations, expanding the Belt and Road Initiative, and developing alternative payment systems (CIPS). This patient, systemic approach allows China to control the geopolitical 'chessboard' such that specific events, like Iran's actions in Hormuz, naturally benefit its broader objectives without direct intervention.
Petrodollar Scam
The petrodollar system is framed as a US-imposed scheme from 1974, forcing oil-producing nations to trade oil in US dollars and invest surpluses in the American economy. This props up the dollar, finances the military-industrial complex, and bails out US debt, making its disruption a 'financially nuclear' event.
Lessons
- Monitor the shift from petrodollar to petro-yuan and the growth of alternative payment systems like China's CIPS, as this will reshape global finance and trade.
- Re-evaluate geopolitical risk assessments, particularly in West Asia, considering the demonstrated limitations of US and Israeli air defenses and the increasing confidence of Iran and its allies.
- Diversify supply chains and financial instruments to reduce reliance on US-centric systems, preparing for a multipolar world with new trade routes and currency dynamics.
Quotes
"The Strait of Hormuz for all practical purposes is not blocked, but it's blocked for any ship that has US, Israeli or hostile, which means the whole of NATO interests against Iran. It's open for everybody else."
"This is the beginning of the end of the petro dollar and that means is the beginning of the end of unilateral hegemonic empire ruling over virtually most of the planet."
"Iran didn't need a nuclear bomb of thousands of Koramsh for missiles to change the rules of the game visa v the petro dollar. Just like that, if you block the most important choke point of trade on the planet where you have 20% of the planet's oil moving on an everyday basis… you change the rules of the game."
"No, we never asked for a ceasefire and we have never asked even for negotiation. We are ready to defend ourselves as long as it takes."
"They are out effectively out now of THAAD missiles and Patriot 3, the Pack 3es. They're out depleted."
Q&A
Recent Questions
Related Episodes
Bibi DEMANDS Ground Troops As Marines Rushed to Iran
"Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for US ground troops in Iran, framing air strikes as insufficient, while the US rushes Marines to the region and struggles to secure the Strait of Hormuz against surprisingly capable Iranian defenses."
BREAKING: U.S. Weighs INVADING Iran Oil Island; Gulf Energy Crisis Grows | TBN Israel
"As the US and Israel systematically dismantle Iran's military and leadership, the conflict escalates into an energy war, with the US considering ground invasion of Iran's critical Karag oil island to secure global oil routes."
BREAKING: Israel BOMBS Major Iran Gas Site; Top Mullah ELIMINATED; Iran Vows VENGEACE | TBN Israel
"Israel and the United States have escalated their 'Roaring Lion War' against Iran, striking its largest gas facilities, eliminating key intelligence and military figures, and disrupting missile production, while Iran threatens a broader energy war in the Gulf."
Mohammad Marandi & Larry C. Johnson: U.S. & Iran on the Brink as Critical Negotiations Unfold LIVE
"Two geopolitical analysts argue that the US and Israel are on the brink of a catastrophic war with Iran, driven by irrationality and miscalculation, which would lead to global economic collapse and US instability."