The Iran Escalation Trap; UK Green Party’s Historic Win w/ Robert Pape, Grace Blakeley | MR Live

Professor Robert Pape's research, spanning over a century of air campaigns since World War I, demonstrates a 0% success rate for air power alone in toppling governments. Instead, such interventions often fuse the target society and regime closer together by invoking nationalism, making it harder for internal opposition or moderates to challenge their own government without appearing as 'henchmen of a foreign military power.'

Pape's book 'Bombing to Win' and subsequent articles analyze 40+ air campaigns. He cites the example of a foreign power assassinating a US president: even if the president is unpopular, Americans would not thank the foreign power due to nationalism. The current Iran bombing is seen as infusing nationalism, making the regime more resilient.

The advent of precision-guided munitions (smart bombs) creates a 'smart bomb trap,' an illusion of control where military leaders believe they can achieve precise political outcomes, such as decapitating leadership, with minimal collateral damage. This technological capability leads to underestimating the strategic and political complexities, resulting in strategic failures despite tactical successes.

Pape explains that while precision bombs can hit targets within 5-15 feet, this tactical accuracy does not translate to strategic success. He references Ronald Reagan's 1986 attempt to decapitate Gaddafi, which failed and led to the Lockerbie bombing two years later, demonstrating delayed but severe retaliation.

Despite public opposition and a failed War Powers Resolution, key Senate Democrats, including Chuck Schumer and Chris Coons, are not ruling out supplemental funding for the 'criminal war' in Iran. Their stated need for 'more details' or 'making investments to keep US troops safe' is framed as a pretext to support the war, driven by the influence of the Zionist lobby and the military-industrial complex, and exacerbated by depleted US precision munition stockpiles.

Chuck Schumer's quote: 'Before you can feel satisfied about a supplemental... you need to know what the real goals are and what the endgame is.' Chris Coons' quote: 'make sure we are making all the investments we can... to keep US troops safe.' Senator Jack Reid, who introduced a War Powers Resolution, also did not rule out supplemental funding, citing 'our reliance on Israel.'

The UK Green Party achieved a historic parliamentary by-election victory, signaling a significant shift in British politics. This success is largely attributed to Keir Starmer's Labour Party moving sharply to the right, alienating its left-wing base. The Greens have successfully coalesced this disillusioned energy by focusing on popular policies like wealth redistribution and green economy investment, and by fielding relatable, working-class candidates.

Grace Blakeley details Starmer's purge of the left from Labour and the failure of Jeremy Corbyn's attempt to start a new party. She highlights Hannah Spencer's successful campaign, focusing on the cost of living crisis, a principled stance on Gaza, and effective grassroots mobilization.

DHS Secretary Christy Gnome is under scrutiny for a $220 million ad campaign featuring herself, awarded to a company, Safe America Media, that was formed just eight days before receiving the contract. This company reportedly lacks a headquarters or website and is linked to a political operative who is the husband of Gnome's former spokesperson, raising serious questions about cronyism and misuse of taxpayer funds.

Senator John Kennedy questioned Gnome about the $220 million contract. He stated his research showed the company was formed 11 days (later corrected to 8 days) before being picked, had no headquarters or website, and was linked to a political operative married to Gnome's former spokesperson. Gnome denied involvement in contractor selection.