Trump dealt NIGHTMARE NEWS amid ICE shootings
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Donald Trump's approval rating on immigration has plummeted by 18-27 points since he took office, now averaging around minus 10.
- ❖Public support for abolishing ICE has dramatically increased by 50 percentage points, moving from minus 50% net approval in 2018 to plus 5% today.
- ❖Polling indicates that only 20-30% of Americans approve of ICE's use of force in incidents like the killings of Renee Good and Alex Prey.
- ❖Demographic groups like young people and non-white voters, who showed some shift towards Trump in 2024, have now reversed course, becoming even more anti-Trump than in 2020.
- ❖The 'toxic brand' narrative, previously applied to Democrats, is now affecting Republicans due to Trump's weaponization of ICE, causing candidates like Chris Matt in Minnesota to withdraw.
- ❖Political conditions can change rapidly, and short-term trends should not be over-interpreted for long-term electoral strategies.
- ❖Public opinion dynamics involve both 'thermostatic backlash' (reversion to the mean) and potential 'tipping points' where public sentiment fundamentally shifts on an issue.
Insights
1Dramatic Decline in Trump's Immigration Approval
Donald Trump's approval rating on immigration has fallen significantly. From a plus 10 net approval when he took office, recent polling places him closer to minus 10, representing an 18 to 27-point drop. This indicates a broad public disapproval of his administration's immigration policies.
Polling data shows Trump's approval on immigration was +10 at the start of his term and is now closer to -10, with a New York Times poll showing -7. (-)
2Surge in 'Abolish ICE' Support
The idea of abolishing or defunding ICE, once considered a fringe progressive concept, has gained substantial mainstream support. Net approval for abolishing ICE has increased by approximately 50 percentage points, shifting from minus 50% in 2018 to plus 5% in recent polling.
Polling over the past six months shows a 50 percentage point increase in net approval for abolishing ICE, moving from -50% in 2018 to +5% today. (-)
3Public Rejection of ICE's Use of Force
The public overwhelmingly disapproves of ICE's use of force in specific incidents, such as the killings of Renee Good and Alex Prey. Only 20-30% of Americans consider these actions a proper use of force, signaling widespread discontent with aggressive enforcement tactics.
Polls show only 20-30% of Americans believe ICE's use of force against Renee Good and Alex Prey was proper. (-)
4Reversal of Trump's Demographic Gains
A New York Times poll indicates that demographic groups, specifically young people and non-white voters, who showed some movement towards Trump in the 2024 election, have now reversed course. These groups are currently more anti-Trump than they were in 2020, before his electoral loss.
A New York Times poll illustrates a 'dramatic U-turn' in support for Trump among young people and non-white voters, who are now 'even more anti-Trump than they were in 2020.' (-)
5Republican 'Toxic Brand' Due to ICE Policies
Republicans are now contending with a 'toxic brand' stemming from Donald Trump's weaponization of ICE. This phenomenon, previously associated with Democrats, is making it difficult for Republican candidates in competitive races, as exemplified by a Minnesota gubernatorial candidate withdrawing due to the national party's image.
Chris Matt, a Republican candidate for governor in Minnesota, dropped out, stating the 'national brand' made it impossible to run as a Republican, specifically citing the administration's weaponization of ICE. (-)
Key Concepts
Thermostatic Backlash
This political science concept describes how public opinion reacts to policy shifts. When policy moves too far in one direction (e.g., to the right), the public often pushes back, desiring a return to the center or the opposite direction, akin to a thermostat regulating temperature.
Tipping Point in Public Opinion
A 'tipping point' refers to a critical threshold where a small change can lead to a large, often irreversible, shift in public sentiment. While difficult to identify in real-time, it signifies a fundamental re-evaluation of an issue, such as the public's tolerance for aggressive immigration enforcement, potentially leading to lasting political consequences.
Lessons
- Political strategists should recognize the rapid and significant shifts in public opinion, particularly on immigration, and avoid over-reading short-term electoral trends as permanent realignments.
- Democratic candidates in competitive districts should consider adopting or supporting an 'anti-DHS' or 'anti-ICE' agenda, as public sentiment has moved significantly in that direction, potentially offering an electoral advantage.
- Republican candidates, especially in swing states or competitive districts, must distance themselves from the national party's stance on aggressive immigration enforcement to avoid being saddled with a 'toxic brand' that is demonstrably unpopular with key demographics.
Quotes
"There's been about a 50 percentage point increase in the net percent of Americans who approve of abolishing ICE. It's about plus 5 today, whereas it was minus 50 when Donald Trump won the last election."
"If you're Donald Trump and you're trying to figure out what your electoral coalition looks like... this is not a good position for him to be in. I'd be happy to be the Democrats right now."
"If you're a Democrat in 2024, you don't want to be running to the left of, you know, of Kla Harris. You're definitely not going to win... Now, Kla Harris, if he rerean the election, might win an AOC figure, could have a pretty good shot because of the where of where the public has gone on these key issues."
"We might be at a tipping point where the public says, 'We don't want this anymore. This level of force being used in American cities is getting people killed. We want a less forceful, a less violent immigration enforcement in America.'"
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