Trump & Hegseth Are Increasingly Delusional on Hormuz; TACO Incoming? | Morning Chaser
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to non-Iranian trade, with Iran charging tolls, leading to a 90%+ drop in oil flow.
- ❖The economic impact, initially hitting Asia with shortages, is projected to spread globally, with oil prices potentially reaching $200/barrel.
- ❖Trump's military strategy is seen as ineffective; even a 1% failure rate is unacceptable for billion-dollar oil tankers.
- ❖Administration officials like Pete Hegseth are accused of being 'delusional,' claiming 'regime change has occurred' in Iran and that the strait is reopening, despite evidence to the contrary.
- ❖Trump is reportedly seeking an 'exit' from the conflict, shifting his messaging from reopening the strait to blaming allies for not participating in military action.
- ❖The hosts argue that this situation is a 'humiliating defeat' for US foreign policy, empowering Iran and undermining trust with allies.
- ❖Trump's focus on his presidential library's 'ballroom' details over war strategy highlights his self-aggrandizing priorities.
Insights
1Strait of Hormuz Closure and Economic Catastrophe
The Strait of Hormuz has seen shipping slow to a near standstill, with only a trickle of non-Iranian vessels passing through daily, often after paying Iran a 'toll.' This has reduced global oil flow through the strait from 20% to 1-2%, creating the 'biggest supply-side shock in modern times.' The immediate impact includes shortages and high prices in Asia, with analysts warning of oil reaching $200 a barrel globally.
Shipping through Hormuz slowed to 181 vessels in March 2026, down from 138 a day previously (). Oil prices are over $100 a barrel, with warnings of $200 (). The direct shock is hitting Asia, but is 'heading west' ().
2Administration's 'Delusional' Rhetoric and Ineffective Strategy
The Trump administration, particularly Secretary Pete Hegseth, is portrayed as detached from reality regarding the Hormuz crisis. Hegseth claims 'many more vessels' are flowing and that 'regime change has occurred' in Iran, despite facts on the ground. Trump himself acknowledged the futility of a purely military approach, stating that a 1% failure rate (one missile hitting a ship) is unacceptable for billion-dollar vessels, yet the administration continues to trumpet military capabilities.
Hegseth states, 'many more vessels flowing through today' () and 'regime change has occurred' (). Trump said, '1% is unacceptable because 1% is a missile going into the hull of a ship that cost a billion dollars' ().
3Trump's Blame-Shifting and Alliance Erosion
As the crisis deepens, Trump is seen as preparing to shift blame away from his administration. A 'truth post' explicitly tells countries like the UK to 'take it' (the Strait) themselves, accusing them of refusing to get involved in the 'decapitation of Iran.' This signals a renunciation of US culpability and a further acceleration of the 'destruction of the post-WWII order and alliance structure,' as allies like Japan and the Gulf States question US reliability.
Trump's 'truth post' states, 'All of those countries that can't get jet fuel because of the straight of Hormuz... buy from the US... Go to the straight and just take it. You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself. The USA won't be there to help you anymore' (). Bill Crystal notes this accelerates 'destruction of the post-WWII World War II order and alliance structure' ().
4Political Consequences for Trump
The hosts predict severe political repercussions for Trump due to the war's economic impact and his handling of the crisis. Despite his attempts to blame allies, they believe voters will hold him accountable for starting the war and the resulting 'berserk' oil prices. His current low poll numbers are seen as connected to the ongoing conflict.
Bill Crystal asks, 'Don't you think [it's] disastrous for Trump politically too? I mean, I don't think these new low polls are totally unconnected from this war' (). Andrew Edgar adds, 'people are going to blame the president for this for the fact that he started this war and then oil prices went berserk' ().
Quotes
"The disconnect between the actual facts on the ground and the actual crisis that that is that is engendering in real time right now and this insane sort of lacadasical totally divorced from reality way that the administration talks about it is I mean it's it's unbelievable. It's striking."
"I mean Iran will have established the principle that it can close the strait and not pay a massive price... Very very bad precedent to take to make uh to to establish."
"The hard part is done. Go get your own oil. President Donald J. Trump."
"This has been kind of considered a core US interest now Trump doesn't seem to think it is... I think I think you're absolutely right to point to that his his wish to have a uh you know, someone to kick around to blame. And it's going to be the allies who are soon going to be our ex allies."
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