Nima R. Alkhorshid: BREAKING: Iran Deputy Commander: 'Beirut attack won't go unanswered
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Israel's recent attacks on Beirut's Dahieh district are seen as a direct challenge to Iran's announced red lines and an attempt to sabotage a US-Iran deal.
- ❖Iran is expected to retaliate against Israel, likely targeting its northern regions, to demonstrate resolve and avoid appearing weak.
- ❖The speaker asserts that Donald Trump's administration lacks control over Israel, which is pursuing its own agenda of regional expansion and destabilization.
- ❖Iran, alongside Oman, plans to control the Strait of Hormuz, implementing new service fees and excluding the US and Israel from its management.
- ❖Hezbollah is demonstrating increased military capabilities against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, including downing drones and destroying Merkava tanks.
- ❖The proposed US-Iran deal is viewed as strategically flawed for Iran, offering minimal benefits (like partial asset unfreezing) while failing to halt Israeli aggression or end the blockade.
Insights
1Israeli Attacks on Beirut and Iran's Expected Response
Israel conducted a second attack on Beirut's Dahieh district, following Iran's warning against such actions. The speaker claims the attack caused civilian casualties, contrary to Donald Trump's assertions. Iran is expected to retaliate against Israel, with discussions indicating a decision to strike Israeli targets, likely in the northern part of the country.
The speaker references the second attack on a building in Beirut, footage of the bombing, and reports from Israeli Channels 12 and 14 about Israel preparing for an Iranian attack.
2Israel's Sabotage of US-Iran Deal and Testing Iran's Resolve
The Israeli attacks are interpreted as a deliberate attempt to sabotage a potential agreement between Iran and the United States, which was reportedly close to being signed. The speaker also believes Israel is testing Iran's willingness to respond to provocations.
The timing of the Israeli attack coincided with reports of a US-Iran deal signing. Donald Trump's public statements asking Iran not to respond are cited as evidence of the deal's fragility.
3US as Israel's Proxy and Trump's Lack of Leverage
The speaker argues that Donald Trump's administration is dominated by pro-Israel elements and lacks the power to control Israeli actions. He asserts that the US has become a 'perfect proxy' for Israel, sacrificing its own strategic interests and allies for Israel's 'fantasies' of a 'Greater Israel'.
Trump's public plea to Iran not to respond to Israeli attacks, despite Israel's disregard for US concerns, is presented as proof of his weakness. The speaker also references Yair Lapid's criticism of Netanyahu's handling of US relations.
4Iran's Control over the Strait of Hormuz
Regardless of any deal with the US, Iran intends to control the Strait of Hormuz in cooperation with Oman. They plan to implement service or environmental fees for passage, asserting that there are no international waters in the strait due to overlapping territorial claims.
The Iranian Foreign Minister's statements on Iranian state media are cited, detailing plans for joint management with Oman and the imposition of new fees.
5Hezbollah's Growing Military Capabilities in Southern Lebanon
Hezbollah is demonstrating increasing effectiveness against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, inflicting significant losses. This includes downing advanced Israeli drones (Heron 1 male) with surface-to-air missiles and destroying Merkava tanks in ambushes.
Footage of a downed Israeli Heron 1 drone and images of destroyed Merkava tanks are mentioned, with claims of over 300 Merkava tanks destroyed in recent weeks.
6Skepticism Towards the US-Iran Deal
The speaker is highly pessimistic about any US-Iran deal, believing it offers no substantial benefits to Iran beyond potentially unfreezing some assets and waiving sanctions on the energy sector. Crucially, it fails to address Israel's aggression in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria, or the broader blockade, making it strategically worthless for Iran.
The speaker questions the benefits for Iran, stating that the deal doesn't address Lebanon, Gaza, or the blockade, and that past deals (like JCPOA) were easily discarded by the US.
Bottom Line
Israel's escalation of attacks on civilian areas in Beirut is a tactic born of weakness, not strength, as they are reportedly suffering significant losses against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and are unable to achieve military objectives there.
This suggests that Israel's strategy is shifting from direct military engagement to pressuring civilian populations and escalating the conflict to a broader regional level, potentially drawing in more powerful actors like Iran.
For regional powers, understanding this perceived weakness could inform counter-strategies that focus on sustained resistance in contested areas rather than being drawn into broader, retaliatory strikes that play into Israel's escalation tactics.
The global economy, particularly Europe and Asian allies like Japan and South Korea, is suffering significantly due to US-led blockades and conflicts in the Middle East, driven by Israeli interests.
This implies a growing divergence of economic interests between the US and its allies, potentially leading to increased pressure on the US to de-escalate or a shift in global alliances as countries seek more stable energy and trade routes.
Non-aligned nations or those seeking to challenge US hegemony could leverage this economic strain to build alternative trade networks and diplomatic blocs, reducing reliance on US-controlled global systems.
Lessons
- Regional powers, particularly Iran and the 'Axis of Resistance,' should prioritize military retaliation against Israeli aggression to avoid appearing weak and to force a reassessment of Israeli strategy.
- Iran should continue its efforts to control strategic choke points like the Strait of Hormuz, independent of US approval, to assert regional sovereignty and economic leverage.
- Leaders in the 'Axis of Resistance' must recognize that diplomatic negotiations with the US are unlikely to yield meaningful results if they do not directly address core issues like Israeli territorial expansion and military actions.
Quotes
"Donald Trump says nobody got was hurt, nobody was injured or killed. That's a total lie. At least from what we've heard so far, one we have one killed and four injured. And this is the reality of what's going on."
"Donald Trump is not is not running the show in my opinion. And his his influence and his his administration is dominated by Israelis who are supporting Israel. First Israel, second the United States."
"The problem is right now that Iran has changed the whole calculation in the Middle East."
"The Israeli picture has been shattered and destroyed. You remember before the attack on Iran, everybody was saying This is one of the After the United States, they have the best fighter jets, they have the best air force, and they're going to do this and that. Iran is nothing compared the military budget on the part of Iranians, and look what Israel has, what the United States is bringing to the region. Those days are gone."
"The Trump administration managed to turn the United States as a perfect proxy of Israel in the Middle East."
Q&A
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