Larry Johnson: UAE Missile Alert! Dubai & Persian Gulf Heat Up RIGHT NOW
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖UAE experienced drone and missile alerts, linked to IRGC activity in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating heightened regional tensions.
- ❖Marco Rubio's visit to Kuwait, Bahrain, and UAE is seen as a 'stupid political move' by the US to divide GCC states, violating existing agreements and threatening Iran.
- ❖The US faces a severe domestic energy crisis with 13-18 day reserves of diesel and aviation fuel, making it vulnerable to refinery disruptions.
- ❖The UAE's economy is in 'grave financial straits' due to halted oil shipments, relocated banking, dead trade, and collapsed real estate/tourism.
- ❖Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is 'virtually none,' impacting global oil supply and regional economies.
- ❖Damage to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain is estimated by Larry Johnson to be over $1 billion for a single classified satellite system, far exceeding Wall Street Journal reports.
- ❖Israel's continued aggression in southern Lebanon, despite an MOU, risks direct Iranian retaliation, potentially targeting Israeli air bases.
- ❖A new regional security group is forming, led by Pakistan, including Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Qatar, signaling a major realignment away from US influence.
- ❖Relocating US bases to Israel would make Israel a larger target and significantly increase operational distances for military aircraft.
- ❖US political parties are experiencing a breakdown of consensus, particularly regarding support for Israel, with growing bipartisan opposition to 'blind support'.
Insights
1US Policy Undermining Regional Stability and Alliances
Larry Johnson asserts that US foreign policy in the Middle East is 'schizophrenic' and counterproductive. Marco Rubio's visit to smaller Gulf states (Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE) while bypassing Saudi Arabia and Qatar is interpreted as an attempt to create division and threaten Iran, directly violating existing agreements. This approach is seen as driving key regional players like Saudi Arabia and Qatar towards a new security bloc with Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan, effectively isolating the US.
Rubio's visit to Kuwait, Bahrain, and UAE, excluding Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with a message that 'undermine[d] the MOU' (Memorandum of Understanding) rather than promoting peace. The formation of a Pakistan-led regional security group including Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Qatar.
2Strait of Hormuz Closure and UAE's Economic Collapse
The Strait of Hormuz is experiencing 'virtually no traffic,' which has crippled the UAE's economy. Its traditional income sources—oil shipments, banking, trade through Jebel Ali, real estate, and tourism—are 'dead,' leading to 'grave financial straits' for the nation. This situation is expected to persist until the US agrees to Iran's terms for settling the regional conflict.
UAE missile alerts, IRGC control of the Strait, 'virtually no traffic' reported on marinetraffic.com, and the relocation of banking to Singapore, with Jebel Ali trade, real estate, and tourism industries described as 'dead'.
3US Energy Vulnerability and Military Infrastructure Damage
The US faces a critical energy shortage, with only a 13-18 day buffer of diesel and aviation fuel reserves, making it highly susceptible to disruptions like hurricanes affecting coastal refineries. Concurrently, the US Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain sustained 'significant damage' from strikes, with one highly classified satellite system alone estimated by Johnson to cost over a billion dollars, far exceeding public reports.
US reserves for diesel and aviation fuel at 'lowest' 13-18 day buffer (). Wall Street Journal report on $400 million damage to Fifth Fleet, contradicted by Johnson's claim of 'well over a billion dollars' for one classified satellite system ().
4Israel's Defiance and Escalating Conflict in Lebanon
Israel continues to engage in conflict in southern Lebanon, with an Israeli minister openly stating they would not be dictated to by Donald Trump regarding territorial claims. This defiance, coupled with ongoing casualties and kidnappings, risks provoking a direct and significant 'blowback' from Iran, potentially involving strikes on Israeli air bases to neutralize air support for operations in Lebanon.
Ongoing fighting in Beit Yahoun with casualties on both sides (). Israeli minister stating 'we don't care about what Donald Trump is talking about' and 'we're going to keep' 100% of Gaza (). Iran's changing position to defend Lebanon and avoid Israeli attacks (). Four civilians kidnapped by Israeli forces in Lebanon ().
5US Internal Policy Conflicts and Waning Support for Israel
The Trump administration is characterized by internal 'split and division,' with figures like Marco Rubio undermining the MOU while others like J.D. Vance try to promote it. This 'schizophrenic mess' reflects a broader breakdown of consensus within both Republican and Democratic parties regarding foreign policy, especially 'blind support' for Israel, which is increasingly waning across the political spectrum.
Rubio's actions undermining the MOU () versus Vance's efforts to sell it as a success (). Ted Cruz's attack on Tucker Carlson for 'rising anti-Semitism' (). Primary election results in NYC where pro-Israel candidates were defeated (). The sentiment against Israel is 'bipartisan' and 'turning against Israel' ().
Bottom Line
The US's current diplomatic and military strategy in the Persian Gulf is inadvertently pushing traditional allies like Saudi Arabia and Qatar into a new regional security framework that includes Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan, effectively diminishing US influence.
This realignment could fundamentally alter the geopolitical balance of power in the Middle East, creating a more multipolar regional security architecture that excludes or significantly marginalizes the US and its interests.
For non-US powers, this presents an opportunity to forge new economic and security partnerships in the region, leveraging the vacuum created by US policy missteps to build alternative trade routes and defense alliances.
The economic collapse of the UAE, driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the relocation of financial and trade activities, demonstrates the immediate and severe economic consequences of regional conflict on seemingly stable economies.
This highlights the fragility of economies heavily reliant on transit trade and financial services in conflict zones, even for wealthy nations. It also underscores Iran's leverage over global energy choke points.
Nations and businesses seeking stable financial and trade hubs may accelerate diversification away from conflict-prone regions, potentially boosting alternative centers like Singapore, as already observed with UAE's banking sector.
Lessons
- Monitor the Strait of Hormuz for any changes in shipping traffic and Iranian policy, as its status directly impacts global energy prices and supply chains.
- Analyze the evolving alliances in the Middle East, particularly the Pakistan-led regional security group, to anticipate shifts in power dynamics and potential new trade corridors.
- Assess the stability and coherence of US foreign policy statements and actions, recognizing potential internal conflicts that could lead to unpredictable international outcomes.
Quotes
"United States wants to keep the war going. The The only good news is United States is now in a real dilemma that if they if they spark this war back off, they're going to create a major energy crisis for themselves here in the United States."
"So, there's there's virtually no traffic going through the Strait of Hormuz right now."
"When you live in a dependent relationship, when you're dependent upon others for your survival, going out of your way to piss them off is usually not a good strategy."
"The fastest a to get on Trump's uh bad side is to insult him. And just say we're not going to listen to you. You can't tell us what to do."
"If you had to lay side by side say which which area of the world is more likely to explode into violence and then expand the war is it in Iran and the Persian Gulf or is it Russia Ukraine and Europe? It's Russia Ukraine and Europe I believe."
"We are We are seeing a cancer on the right. It is rising anti-Semitism. Here is the scary thing. I I have seen more anti-Semitism on the right over the last 18 months than any time in my life. And it's spreading like a cancer. Tucker Carlson is the most damn dangerous demagogue in the United States."
"The support for Israel is waning. It used to be a bipartisan thing. It's in It's going to become increasingly partisan."
Q&A
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