Is Tim Miller’s 2028 Strategy a Little TOO Evil? | The Next Level
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Tim Miller's 'touch the stove' strategy suggests allowing Trump's policies and persona to fully manifest, believing it will lead to his eventual discredit and weaken his influence on the Republican Party by 2028.
- ❖The 'Bush line' refers to George W. Bush's 32% approval rating upon leaving office, which is posited as a critical threshold where a former president's unpopularity causes long-term damage to their party's electoral prospects.
- ❖Republicans like Tom Tillis and Tommy Tuberville are starting to speak out against Trump-aligned policies (e.g., the 'slush fund') as Trump's popularity declines, indicating a shift in political 'vibes'.
- ❖A debate exists on impeaching Trump again: some argue it's futile without conviction votes and risks a 'rally-round-Trump' effect, while others advocate for it as a necessary form of accountability.
- ❖The hosts speculate on a potential 'America First' lane in the 2028 Republican primary, distinct from traditional MAGA, potentially featuring figures like Thomas Massie who critique Trump on issues like foreign policy and economic nationalism.
Insights
1The 'Bush Line' as a Threshold for Political Discredit
Sarah Longwell explains the 'Bush line' as a 32% approval rating, referencing George W. Bush's popularity when he left office. She argues that if Trump's approval drops to or below this level, it will signify a deep unpopularity that could send the Republican Party 'into the wilderness,' discrediting Trump and his allies for future elections, similar to how the GOP struggled post-Bush.
Sarah Longwell states, 'It's 32% but that is the number that George W. Bush was at when he left office... The Republican Party never recovered from his unpopularity.' She connects this to Trump's current poll numbers on the economy and inflation, which are already around 32%.
2Tim Miller's 'Touch the Stove' Strategy for 2028
Tim Miller advocates for allowing Trump to fully enact his 'unadulterated Trumpism' and 'naked body' policies. His 'dark Tim' perspective suggests that the more Trump is seen giving away money to friends or engaging in controversial actions, the more the public will 'experience the pain' and reject him, making him an 'albatross' for future candidates like Rubio and Vance in 2028.
Tim Miller says, 'I want to see unadulterated Trumpism. I want to see his naked body. I want to see his real skin. I want everyone to just get I got We got 2 and 1/2 more years. I want everybody to experience the pain.' He also mentions wanting Rubio and J.D. Vance to 'wear Trump like an albatross around their necks.'
3The Futility of Impeachment Without Conviction
Sarah Longwell argues against impeaching Trump again, citing historical precedent. She believes that without the votes to convict, impeachment merely creates a 'rally-round-Trump' effect, galvanizing his base and distracting from his self-destruction. She suggests focusing on other strategies like releasing incriminating files and exposing corruption to make the case to the American people.
Sarah Longwell states, 'If you do not have the votes to convict him, as you definitely don't, what you have done is you have created a rally round Trump effect... Right now, we are watching him destroy himself. And I am not sure we should interrupt it.'
4Emergence of an 'America First' Critique of Trump
The hosts discuss the potential for a 2028 Republican primary lane for a candidate who critiques Trump from an 'America First' perspective, specifically on issues like foreign policy (stupid wars) and economic nationalism. They point to figures like Thomas Massie, who garnered significant primary votes, as a prototype for someone who could appeal to a base disillusioned by Trump's perceived betrayals on these issues.
Tim Miller suggests, 'Could there be somebody who has like a lot of disgusting opinions about immigration and race, but who also believes that we should care about America first, we should not get into stupid Middle East wars, and like and critiques Trump aggressively on those grounds, and like I think yes.' He cites Thomas Massie getting 45% in Kentucky.
Bottom Line
The shift in 'vibes' among Republican senators, where figures like Tom Tillis and Tommy Tuberville are now publicly criticizing Trump-aligned policies (e.g., the 'slush fund' for January 6th defendants), indicates a weakening of Trump's perceived power.
This suggests that as Trump's approval numbers decline, the fear of political blowback from him decreases, potentially allowing more Republicans to express dissent and create internal party fractures.
Opponents of Trumpism can amplify these instances of Republican dissent to highlight growing cracks in Trump's control over the party, encouraging further defections and a more diverse range of Republican voices.
The hosts identify a potential 2028 Republican primary lane for an 'America First' candidate who critiques Trump on foreign policy and economic nationalism, rather than on character or traditional conservative principles. Thomas Massie is presented as an aspirational figure for this lane, though Tucker Carlson is seen as more likely.
This indicates that even if Trump's direct influence wanes, the underlying 'America First' ideology he popularized will likely persist and evolve, potentially leading to new, equally challenging, political figures.
Analysts and political strategists should closely monitor emerging 'America First' candidates who differentiate themselves from Trump on specific policy grounds, as they could represent the next evolution of populist conservatism and a significant force in future elections.
Key Concepts
The Bush Line
A political theory suggesting that a former president's approval rating falling below 32% (George W. Bush's approval when he left office) indicates a level of unpopularity so severe that it sends their party 'into the wilderness,' leading to significant electoral losses and a struggle for political identity in subsequent elections. This threshold is seen as critical for discrediting a political figure and their associated ideology.
Touch the Stove Strategy
A controversial political strategy advocating for allowing a problematic political figure (in this case, Donald Trump) to fully express their 'worst self' and implement their most extreme policies without obstruction. The premise is that direct experience with the negative consequences of these actions will cause the public to 'feel the pain' and ultimately reject the figure and their ideology, leading to long-term political discredit.
Lessons
- Monitor Donald Trump's approval ratings, particularly on economic issues like inflation and cost of living, as these are identified as critical indicators for the long-term discrediting of Trumpism.
- Observe and amplify instances where Republican politicians, previously loyal to Trump, begin to publicly criticize his policies or actions, as this signals a weakening of his political control.
- For those seeking to counter Trump's influence, consider strategies that allow his 'unadulterated Trumpism' to play out, rather than engaging in actions like impeachment that could inadvertently rally his base.
Notable Moments
Discussion of a $1.8 billion 'slush fund' for January 6th defendants, and Republican senators like Tommy Tuberville and Tom Tillis speaking out against it.
This highlights a specific policy controversy and shows early signs of Republican politicians distancing themselves from extreme Trump-aligned initiatives as his popularity wanes.
Sarah Longwell's argument against impeaching Trump again, emphasizing the 'rally-round-Trump' effect and the lack of conviction votes.
This provides a strategic perspective on political accountability, suggesting that some actions, while emotionally satisfying, can be counterproductive to long-term goals.
Tim Miller's contrarian view that Trump's 'gilded' Oval Office redesign is an 'upgrade' from its previous 'drab and sad' appearance.
This moment offers a humorous yet pointed example of differing aesthetic and symbolic interpretations of political spaces, reflecting broader cultural and political divides.
Sarah Longwell's impassioned, detailed 'rant' explaining why Sean Duffy is her 'worst cabinet member' pick, based on his reality TV past and perceived corruption.
This provides a highly specific and entertaining example of how personal history and perceived hypocrisy can fuel strong political disdain, moving beyond typical policy critiques.
Quotes
"You want Rubio and J.D. Vance to wear Trump like an albatross around their necks. And that is why the lower that Trump goes and the longer he stays there, not only does it help with the midterms, it also helps with 2028, it also helps with the future. And that's why it's so important."
"I want to see unadulterated Trumpism. I want to see his naked body. I want to see his real skin. I want everyone to just get I got We got 2 and 1/2 more years. I want everybody to experience the pain."
"The more unpopular he is, the more likely they are to start speaking out against things like the ballroom. This is true. This is why the stupid Bush line happens."
"If you do not have the votes to convict him, as you definitely don't, what you have done is you have created a rally round Trump effect, which we have seen a number of times where people suddenly say you know, oh, look, here's the libs coming after him. Right now, we are watching him destroy himself. And I am not sure we should interrupt it."
"I'm sorry, the Oval looked awful before, okay? You look at a picture of Gerald Ford in there, it looked drab and sad and dispiriting. It's kind of like going into like a Pier 1 or like the Cracker Barrel after the rebrand."
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