Hungary Just Humiliated Donald Trump (w/ Sarah Longwell & Bill Kristol) | Bulwark Podcast
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Viktor Orban, Hungary's illiberal leader and a model for Trump, was resoundingly defeated in a recent election.
- ❖The Hungarian opposition's victory is seen as a defeat for global illiberalism and authoritarianism, including for Putin and Trump's allies.
- ❖Peter Maguar, the opposition leader, was a former Orbanist who broke decisively and led a broad social movement, not just a traditional party.
- ❖Maguar's campaign succeeded by going directly to people in rural areas, using non-traditional media, and focusing on issues like healthcare, affordability, and education.
- ❖US figures like JD Vance and Marco Rubio actively campaigned for Orban, making his defeat an embarrassment for the Trump administration.
- ❖The hosts suggest that Trump's recent actions (e.g., posting as Jesus, attacking the Pope) indicate a 'flailing' and 'decompensating' state.
- ❖The US political landscape, while not as far down the road to authoritarianism as Hungary, can learn from the Hungarian people's success in repudiating an entrenched leader.
- ❖Democrats are praised for quickly abandoning figures accused of misconduct, contrasting with Republican responses to similar allegations.
- ❖The episode highlights a growing anti-incumbent, anti-status quo sentiment that could favor challengers in future elections.
Insights
1Orban's Defeat as a Repudiation of Illiberalism
Viktor Orban, who proudly championed 'illiberal democracy' since 2010 and served as an inspiration for authoritarians globally, including the MAGA movement, was overwhelmingly defeated. This outcome is a significant setback for the global illiberal and authoritarian trend.
Orban has been in power since 2010, modeled 'illiberal democracy,' and was a 'calling card for authoritarians around the world,' including Trump world. His overwhelming loss, despite consolidating power and suppressing opposition media, is a 'defeat for global illiberalism and authoritarianism.'
2Maguar's 'Never Trumper' Strategy in Hungary
Peter Maguar, the leader of the Hungarian opposition, was a former member of Orban's party, akin to a 'Never Trumper' figure. His success came from decisively breaking with Orban and leading a broad social movement that united diverse political factions, including the left, behind a common cause.
Maguar was 'a version of a never Trumper,' a 'center right' figure who 'used to be in Orban's party' but 'struck joined the opposition party and began to lead it.' The Hungarian left 'deserves a lot of credit for going along with Magar as the leader.'
3Grassroots Engagement Over Media Control
Despite Orban's control over Hungarian media, Maguar circumvented this by engaging in 'hand-to-hand combat,' traveling extensively to rural areas, and speaking directly to people. This 'shoe leather' approach, combined with effective use of social media, was crucial for his victory.
Orban 'controls the media,' but Maguar 'went in person all over the country... especially to rural areas and spoke to them directly.' This was 'hand-to-hand combat,' 'shoe leather,' 'meeting people,' and 'making the explanation.'
4Corruption as a Key Vulnerability for Authoritarians
A major factor in Orban's downfall was widespread corruption, which enriched his allies and himself, leading to economic stagnation and public frustration. This highlights how corruption can be a potent issue for opposition movements against authoritarian leaders, including potentially Trump.
Orban 'used corruption in a way that Trump, imagine Trump in power for like 10 years doing what he's doing today.' The hosts question if a 'global backlash against these corrupt authoritarians' is beginning, noting that 'all we got for it was a ton of corruption.'
5Trump's Flailing and Political Missteps
Donald Trump's recent actions, such as posting himself as Jesus and attacking the Pope, are interpreted as signs of 'flailing' and 'decompensation.' This, combined with the political embarrassment of JD Vance campaigning for Orban, suggests a weakening of Trump's political position.
Trump posting 'himself as Jesus' and being 'in a hot war with the pope' are cited. JD Vance 'actively decided to go and campaign for Victor Orban,' making Orban's defeat a 'level of defeat... for Trump and for JD Vance.'
Bottom Line
The success of Peter Maguar, a former Orbanist who pivoted to lead the opposition, suggests that 'Never Trumper' figures with conservative backgrounds, if they decisively break with authoritarianism and build broad movements, can be more effective leaders against entrenched populists than traditional liberal opposition figures.
This challenges the conventional wisdom that only ideologically pure opposition can succeed. It implies that a 'big tent' approach, even with figures from the right, might be necessary to unseat deeply rooted authoritarian leaders.
Opposition movements in the US and elsewhere should consider actively recruiting and empowering former allies of authoritarian leaders who have genuinely broken with them, leveraging their credibility with conservative voters and their understanding of the incumbent's strategies.
The Hungarian election demonstrates that direct, 'shoe-leather' campaigning and leveraging non-traditional media can overcome an incumbent's control of the mainstream information infrastructure.
This means that even in environments where traditional media is compromised, determined grassroots efforts can still reach and persuade voters.
Political campaigns facing media suppression should prioritize extensive in-person outreach, community organizing, and innovative use of social media and alternative communication channels to build direct connections with the electorate.
Lessons
- Focus political campaigns on concrete issues like affordability, healthcare, and education, as these resonate deeply with voters and can unite diverse coalitions.
- Actively combat corruption as a central theme, highlighting how it negatively impacts citizens' daily lives and ties into broader authoritarian practices.
- Embrace a 'big tent' approach for opposition movements, being willing to consolidate behind leaders from unexpected backgrounds (e.g., former insiders) if they are genuinely committed to liberal democracy and can build broad appeal.
- Prioritize grassroots, in-person campaigning and innovative use of social media to circumvent traditional media control and directly engage with voters, especially in rural or underserved areas.
- Recognize that political momentum can shift rapidly; what seems impossible one year (like defeating an entrenched authoritarian) can become reality the next if underlying frustrations are effectively channeled.
Notable Moments
Bill Kristol describes checking Hungarian election returns on his phone, watching blue dots (opposition) increase in parliament, finding it 'exciting and moving.'
This personal anecdote underscores the emotional investment and significance of the Hungarian election for those monitoring the global fight against authoritarianism.
The hosts discuss Donald Trump posting himself as Jesus and being in a 'hot war with the Pope,' alongside his administration's 'flailing' foreign policy.
These examples are presented as evidence of Trump's 'decompensation' and political vulnerability, suggesting a potential shift in public perception and a weakening of his control over the narrative.
Discussion of JD Vance campaigning for Orban in Hungary, followed by Orban's defeat and Vance's subsequent political missteps (e.g., failed negotiations, being sidelined by Trump).
This highlights a specific instance where a prominent American political figure's alignment with an authoritarian leader resulted in public embarrassment and political setbacks, linking the international event directly to US political futures.
Quotes
"Orban's been in Paris since 2010. He's been the model of what he called illiberal democracy. He used that term proudly way back 2011, 2012, something like that. And it became a kind of a inspiration and a calling card for authoritarians around the world, including here, and for for MAGA, for Trump world."
"The fact that the Hungarian people were able to do what they did is really inspiring and it seems like it's going to hold. There doesn't seem to be much of a it was such an overwhelming picture. Orban's Orban did a lot of things to monkey with the elections and uh but it didn't end up mattering."
"How did he do it without access to the media? He did it like hand-to-hand combat. He went everywhere and made the case and and brought people over to his side. It's almost like an energy thing. It's the ability to say if if it really depends on it, here's what I'm going to do. It's shoe leather. It's going. It's meeting people. It's making the explanation. That level of leadership is really something."
"I do wonder now if you know, we're 10 years on here, they were 16 years on in Hungary... Is it possible though that we are at the beginning of a global backlash to uh the sort of the the competitive authoritarianism of of Orban?"
"The one thing he doesn't want to do, I do think this is, he may still change his mind, of course, but is sending ground troops. I mean, all the bombing, the closing of the street, are all ways of avoiding sending in ground troops to really try to destabilize the regime or to really guarantee the opening of the straight."
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