Amb. Chas Freeman: Is Israel Dragging the U.S. Into Israel’s Next Endless War?
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US-Iran negotiations are a 'stringing along' tactic, with no intention of agreement; the real goal is Iran's incapacitation.
- ❖Israel's objective is to reduce Iran to a 'mess like Syria,' while the US under Trump might settle for a 'Venezuela-like' state.
- ❖Iran views the current US-Israel posture as an existential threat and will respond with an all-out assault on Israel and American regional facilities.
- ❖The US military lacks the capacity for an effective war of attrition, with a significant portion of its aircraft carriers under repair.
- ❖Iran possesses advanced weaponry, including Chinese-derived stealth-detecting radar, S400-like air defense, accurate missiles, and supercavitating torpedoes ('Hoot').
- ❖Netanyahu's claim that Israel will not participate in initial attacks is 'wishful thinking'; Iran will retaliate against Israel regardless of who initiates the attack.
- ❖The 'Board of Peace' initiative is framed as a 'device for cashing in on genocide with a real estate deal,' ignoring Palestinian self-determination.
- ❖Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis are products of local political factors and resistance, not simply Iranian creations or puppets.
- ❖China has mixed views on a US-Iran war: some see it as an opportunity to deplete US military power, while others worry about energy disruptions.
- ❖The US Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's tariffs, requiring Congressional approval, highlights constitutional checks on executive economic policy.
Insights
1US-Israel Strategy: Incapacitation, Not Negotiation
Ambassador Freeman argues that current US-Iran negotiations are a pretense. The true objective of US and Israeli policy under the Trump administration is the incapacitation of Iran. While the US might aim to reduce Iran to a state like Venezuela, Israel's preference is to see Iran become a 'mess that is now Syria,' implying a more destructive outcome.
The host notes the Iranian foreign minister's report that US negotiators (Witkov, Kushner) did not demand zero enrichment, suggesting a lack of seriousness. Freeman states, 'It's pretty clear that the nuclear program isn't really the focus... What is the focus is the incapacitation of Iran... its subordination to Israel and the United States.' He differentiates, 'The United States would probably be satisfied under Donald Trump reducing Iran to the status of Venezuela, but Israel would prefer to reduce it to the mess that is now Syria.'
2Iran's Shift to All-Out Retaliation
Iran has concluded that limited responses to provocations are no longer viable. Faced with what it perceives as an existential threat from the US and Israel, Iran will now respond with an all-out assault on Israel and American facilities in the region, including naval assets, rather than symbolic or limited strikes.
Freeman quotes an Associated Press report: 'Iran has now come to the conclusion that the only way that they can stop this cycle of war is to draw blood and to inflict significant harm on the United States and Israel.' He adds, 'If you pose an existential threat, if you declare that your objective is regime change... then you will get a brutal allout response.' He cites past limited responses (June war, Alade air base attack) as being 'over.'
3US Military Limitations in a War of Attrition
The United States is ill-equipped for a prolonged war of attrition against Iran. Its naval capabilities are stretched, with a majority of its aircraft carriers under repair, and its shipbuilding capacity is limited. Sustained naval damage in the region would be difficult to repair, potentially depleting US military resources for other global contingencies like a defense of Taiwan.
Freeman states, 'The United States does not have the ability to carry out an effective war of attrition.' He notes, 'we have 11 aircraft carriers. Three of them are at sea. Eight of them are under repair.' He questions, 'If there is naval damage... where do you repair those ships?' and highlights the US's 'very limited shipbuilding capabilities these days.'
4Iran's Advanced Defensive and Offensive Capabilities
Iran has significantly enhanced its military capabilities, benefiting from Chinese technology. This includes new radar systems capable of detecting stealth aircraft and a formidable air defense system similar to the Russian S400. Additionally, Iran possesses accurate, terminally guided missiles capable of striking moving targets like aircraft carriers, and a supercavitating torpedo ('Hoot') that travels at 300 mph underwater, making it extremely difficult to counter.
Freeman details: 'Iran has benefited from the arrival of Chinese technology... new radar systems that can detect stealth aircraft and a very formidable version of the Chinese version of the Russian S400... its own missiles are very accurate. Some of them I believe are terminally guided which means they can strike moving targets like aircraft carriers. Iran has a... super cavitating torpedo... it travels at 300 miles an hour underwater.'
5Israeli Leadership's 'Psychotic' Delusions
Israeli politicians, particularly Netanyahu, are characterized by 'delusional and fanatic' thinking, marked by narcissism and an overestimation of their own and US capabilities, coupled with a complete lack of understanding of their adversaries. This 'psychotic' approach, rooted in historical trauma, leads them to believe that hatred against Israel is due to their Jewish identity rather than their actions, and that peace means 'pacification' or submission.
Freeman states, 'Netanyahu has no interest at all in living in peace with is with the Palestinians or even Israel's neighbors. What he means by peace is pacification, that is submission.' He later adds, 'I would say it's psychotic actually... based on a misperception of reality on narcissism overestimation of Israel's own capabilities... and the complete lack of understanding of the so-called enemy.' He attributes this to a 'kind of paranoia' from the European Holocaust, leading them to believe 'the entire world was out to kill them.'
Bottom Line
A US-Iran conflict could serve as a real-world 'test' between American and Chinese military technology, potentially shifting global arms sales and perceptions of military power.
The outcome of such a conflict, particularly regarding the performance of Chinese-supplied systems (e.g., HQ9 air defense, stealth-detecting radar) against US advanced weaponry, could significantly influence future military procurement decisions by nations worldwide, impacting the global balance of power and defense industry.
Defense analysts and strategists should closely monitor the performance of specific weapon systems and technologies if a conflict erupts, as this data will be critical for future strategic planning and defense investments.
The 'Board of Peace' initiative, championed by the Trump administration, is fundamentally a real estate development project disguised as a peace effort, ignoring core Palestinian issues.
This framing suggests that the US approach to Middle East peace is driven by commercial interests rather than genuine diplomatic solutions, making it inherently flawed and unlikely to achieve lasting stability. It also highlights a cynical view of regional leaders who join for political expediency.
For investors or developers, this implies that any 'peace' initiatives tied to real estate in conflict zones carry immense political risk and are unlikely to materialize as envisioned. For policymakers, it underscores the need for approaches rooted in political realities and human rights, rather than transactional deals.
Key Concepts
Launch on Warning
A military doctrine where a nation launches its retaliatory strike immediately upon detecting an incoming attack, rather than waiting for impact. Ambassador Freeman suggests Iran may adopt this posture against US/Israeli movements.
Sit on the Mountain and Watch the Tigers Fight
A Chinese strategic proverb describing a situation where one's enemies are engaged in conflict, allowing one to conserve resources and potentially benefit from their mutual weakening without direct involvement. This is presented as one Chinese perspective on a potential US-Iran war.
Lessons
- Monitor US military deployments and readiness reports, particularly regarding naval assets, to assess the immediate likelihood and sustainability of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East.
- Re-evaluate assumptions about Iran's military capabilities, incorporating intelligence on advanced Chinese-derived defense systems and indigenous offensive weapons like supercavitating torpedoes.
- Analyze the diplomatic rhetoric surrounding US-Iran negotiations for signs of genuine engagement versus 'stringing along' tactics, focusing on concrete offers of sanctions relief rather than vague promises.
Notable Moments
The host mentions an Associated Press report indicating Iran's conclusion that it must 'draw blood and inflict significant harm on the United States and Israel' to stop the cycle of war, even at a high price.
This sets the stage for the entire discussion, highlighting a perceived shift in Iran's strategy from limited retaliation to an all-out response, making an escalating conflict highly probable.
Ambassador Freeman likens Donald Trump's predictability to 'the score on a pinball machine,' emphasizing the unpredictable nature of his decision-making regarding war.
This metaphor underscores the high uncertainty surrounding the initiation of conflict, making it difficult for analysts to predict outcomes based on conventional strategic logic.
Freeman criticizes Lindsey Graham as a 'propagandist in the service of Israel' for dismissing the real reasons behind Saudi-UAE quarrels, which he attributes to differing regional approaches in Yemen, Somalia, and Sudan.
This challenges the common narrative that all regional issues are solely about Iran or Israel, revealing deeper, complex geopolitical rivalries and the influence of pro-Israel lobbying in US foreign policy discourse.
Freeman describes the 'Board of Peace' as 'a device for cashing in on genocide with a real estate deal,' and Donald Trump's negotiators as 'real estate brokers' focused on a 'Kushner pipe dream' of a 'Miami Beach on the eastern Mediterranean' in Gaza.
This provides a highly critical and cynical interpretation of US peace efforts, suggesting they are driven by commercial interests and a disregard for the humanitarian crisis and political realities in Palestine.
Freeman notes that China is building '50 some reactors' and is 'preparing itself to be oil free except for limited purposes,' indicating a long-term strategy to mitigate energy disruptions.
This insight reveals China's strategic resilience against potential oil supply shocks from a Middle East conflict, suggesting that while a war might cause short-term issues, China is less vulnerable in the long run than commonly perceived.
Quotes
"The United States at the insistence of Israel declared that there would be no negotiations unless they addressed the whole nuclear program in Iran, Iran's missile forces and self-defense capabilities and Iran's relationship with resistance movements in Levant meaning Hamas meaning Husbah meaning the Houthis in Yemen."
"The United States would probably be satisfied under Donald Trump reducing Iran to the status of Venezuela, but Israel would prefer to reduce it to the mess that is now Syria."
"If you pose an existential threat, if you declare that your objective is regime change, if you demonstrate in Venezuela that you have no respect at all for limits or international law, then you will get a brutal allout response."
"The United States does not have the ability to carry out an effective war of attrition. And if we get into such a war as we have done in Ukraine, we will find that our ability to conduct military operations elsewhere. For example, a defense of Taiwan against China will be depleted to a point where we can't can't accomplish it."
"Netanyahu is a political magician... maybe Trump like a magician will pull a rabbit out of a hat. You know it's possible but unlikely I would say."
"People are not against them because they're Jews, they are against them because of the way they behave and the murders that they commit, the assassinations, the bombings, the attacks, the oppression of people under their custody in their custody."
"If you want to be successful in military affairs, you have to know the mind of the enemy as well as your own mind. And Israel lacks empathy."
Q&A
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