The Young Turks
The Young Turks
April 25, 2026

Trump’s Base Keeps FALLING APART!! Pete Hegseth Tells MORE LIES.

YouTube · F8azJG0eCOM

Quick Read

Donald Trump's administration faces widespread disapproval due to its erratic foreign policy, alleged insider trading, and economic mismanagement, leading to a fracturing base and global instability.
Trump's administration is punishing NATO allies for not supporting its 'war of choice' in Iran, even threatening Spain's NATO membership.
Insider trading on prediction markets is rampant, with a soldier arrested for profiting from a Venezuela operation, while White House officials remain uninvestigated.
The Iran war is costing Americans billions in gas prices and depleting US weapon stockpiles, while Israel expands settlements with alleged US backing.

Summary

The episode critically analyzes the Trump administration's policies and their consequences, highlighting the President's shifting rhetoric on the Iran war and NATO, alleged insider trading on prediction markets, and the US's tacit support for Israeli settlement expansion. The hosts detail the economic fallout of the Iran war, including skyrocketing gas prices and depleted US weapon stockpiles, and expose ongoing US military operations in Latin America and IDF actions in Lebanon. The discussion concludes with an examination of Trump's historically low approval ratings across various demographics, attributing the decline to his administration's self-inflicted economic woes and perceived hypocrisy.
This analysis reveals the deep-seated issues within the Trump administration's foreign and domestic policies, demonstrating how inconsistent messaging, alleged corruption, and disregard for international law are leading to significant financial burdens, geopolitical instability, and a loss of public trust. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for comprehending the current political landscape and the potential long-term impacts on US alliances, the global economy, and democratic processes.

Takeaways

  • Trump's administration is threatening to 'punish' NATO allies, including suspending Spain, for not participating in the Iran war, despite earlier claims of 'total victory'.
  • A US Master Sergeant was arrested for making over $400,000 via insider trading on prediction markets related to a Venezuela operation, while alleged White House insider trading on oil futures remains uninvestigated.
  • Israel's finance minister claims 'unconditional US support' for settlement expansion in the West Bank, with over 51,000 housing units approved since 2022.
  • The Iran war has cost US taxpayers an estimated $28-35 billion in 38 days and depleted critical US weapon stockpiles, leaving commands in Europe and Asia vulnerable.
  • Trump's overall approval rating has dropped to 23%, with only 2024 Trump voters and males over 65 showing majority support; 55% of US adults now support his impeachment.

Insights

1Trump's Shifting Stance on Iran War and NATO Allies

The Trump administration initially declared 'total victory' in the Iran war, but quickly shifted to criticizing NATO allies for not providing support. Pete Hegseth's rhetoric evolved from celebrating a decisive win to accusing European and Asian allies of 'free riding' and demanding their involvement in the Strait of Hormuz.

Donald Trump's statement two weeks prior about 'world peace' and 'traffic buildup' in the Strait of Hormuz, followed by Pete Hegseth's declaration of 'Operation Epic Fury' as a 'historic and overwhelming victory'. Later, Hegseth stated, 'Europe and Asia have benefited from our protection for decades, but the time for free riding is over.'

2Pentagon Email Details Punishments for NATO Allies

An internal Pentagon email outlined options to penalize NATO allies perceived as disloyal in the Iran war. These options included suspending Spain from NATO for not allowing US planes to land and reassessing diplomatic support for Britain's claim to the Falkland Islands.

Phil Stewart of Reuters reported, 'Scoop internal Pentagon email details options to punish NATO allies who the US believes failed to support it in Iran war operations. Options include suspending Spain from NATO alliance... Reassessing US diplomatic support for European imperial possessions to include Britain's claim to the Faulland Islands.'

3Insider Trading on Prediction Markets

The DOJ arrested Master Sergeant Ganon Ken Van Djk for making over $400,000 by betting on a Venezuela operation he was involved in, using classified information on prediction markets. This highlights a broader issue of insider trading on these platforms, which hosts argue is also occurring in the White House regarding oil futures and policy announcements, but without investigation.

Forbes reported the indictment of Master Sergeant Ganon Ken Van Djk for placing 13 'yes' bets totaling $33,000 on PolyMarket contracts related to 'Operation Absolute Resolve', yielding nearly $410,000 profit. The hosts note the lack of investigation into similar activities within the White House, despite clear patterns.

4US Support for Israeli Settlement Expansion

Israel's finance minister, Smotrich, claimed that settlement expansion in the West Bank is occurring with 'unconditional US support,' despite official US public statements advocating restraint. Over 51,000 housing units have been approved since 2022, and settler violence has tripled in three years.

Smotrich stated in a Jerusalem Post interview that 'all actions taken in the West Bank have been coordinated with the president along with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabe.' Data shows over 51,000 housing units approved in the West Bank since 2022, and a three-fold increase in Palestinian injuries from settler attacks.

5Trump's Declining Approval Ratings

Donald Trump's overall approval rating has fallen to 23%, with only two demographic groups (2024 Trump voters and males over 65) showing majority support. This decline is attributed to his administration's policies, including the Iran war and tariffs, which have increased the cost of living.

Journalist G. Elliot Morris's data shows Trump's overall approval at 23%. Only 2024 Trump voters (84%) and males 65+ (52%) show majority approval. White people are at 46%, men at 44%, and young people (18-29) at 27%. 73% of voters, including 57% of Republicans, blame Trump for rising living costs.

6US Military Operations in Latin America Target Civilians

Under 'Operation Southern Spear,' the US military has destroyed 51 vessels and killed 178 civilians in the Pacific, claiming they are drug cartels. Survivors, like an Ecuadorian fishing crew, report being attacked by drones, detained, and having evidence wiped, suggesting these are illegal strikes against innocent people.

The Intercept reported 51 vessels destroyed and 171 civilians killed as of April 14th, with the Guardian increasing the kill count to 178. An Ecuadorian fishing crew detailed being hit twice by a US drone, detained, and having phones confiscated, despite being innocent fishermen.

7IDF Violations and Civilian Casualties in Lebanon

Despite a 'ceasefire,' the IDF continues to operate in southern Lebanon, causing widespread devastation, civilian casualties, and collapsing healthcare infrastructure. The UN reported 10,000 Israeli ceasefire violations before the latest war, and a journalist was deliberately killed after authorities were alerted to her location.

An emergency physician from Doctors Without Borders described 'lifelong disabilities' and 'collapsed healthcare system' in Lebanon. Reports indicate 2,491 killed and 7,571 wounded since March 2nd. Journalist Amal Khalil was killed by an Israeli air strike after her location was known to authorities, making her the ninth journalist killed by Israel in Lebanon this year.

8Economic and Military Costs of the Iran War

The Iran war has cost the US an estimated $28-35 billion in 38 days, primarily due to the expenditure of critical weapon supplies like long-range stealth cruise missiles and Patriot interceptors. This depletion leaves US commands in Europe and Asia vulnerable and contributes to rising gas prices and a projected global recession.

The New York Times reported the US burned through 'around 1,000 of its long-range stealth cruise missiles' and over 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Costs of War project estimates the war's expense at $28-35 billion. Moody's analytics chief economist Mark Zandi stated gas price surges cost Americans an additional $21.3 billion.

Lessons

  • Engage with local and state-level elections to enact change, as national politics often feel overwhelming and detached from citizen needs.
  • Remain vigilant against attempts to subvert democracy, such as election interference or the normalization of federal armed presence at polling locations.
  • Support independent journalism and question mainstream narratives, especially when official sources refuse to provide transparency or accountability for military actions and economic policies.

Quotes

"

"America and the free world deserve allies who are capable, who are loyal, and who understand that being an ally is not a one-way street. It's a two-way street."

Pete Hegseth
"

"An alliance is coming to your defense if you're attacked. And why would they when you just spent the past this administration just spent the past year attacking NATO countries, threatening to invade, threatening to overtake them..."

Jordan Uhl
"

"I am absolutely not worried. We do not work with emails. We work with official documents and positions taken in this case by the government of the US."

Pedro Sanchez (Prime Minister of Spain)
"

"The economic damage from the war with Iran is mounting. Just the surge in gasoline prices has cost Americans an estimated additional 21.3 billion since the start of the war over 6 weeks ago."

Mark Zandi (Moody's Analytics Chief Economist)
"

"Journalists are not just uh people in a noble profession. They are a threat to Netanyahu, to Trump, to other dictators. The people who tell the truth are actually a threat to their livelihood and their very lives."

Sharon Reed

Q&A

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