Larry C. Johnson & Col. Larry Wilkerson: Israel/US Attack Iran? That Would Be a Catastrophic Mistake
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖A US-Israel military strike on Iran is being actively prepared and is highly probable, driven by Israeli pressure and US domestic agendas.
- ❖Iran possesses advanced defensive capabilities, including underground missile facilities and hypersonic missiles, making a US strike far more costly than anticipated.
- ❖A major US attack on Iran would likely lead to the immediate closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crippling the global economy, and severe retaliation against US bases and Israel.
- ❖US foreign policy, particularly under Donald Trump, is heavily influenced by Zionist interests and the financial enrichment of his associates, exemplified by the Venezuela oil and Greenland mineral pursuits.
- ❖The CIA is accused of fabricating intelligence to align with policy objectives, misleading US leadership about the feasibility and consequences of military actions.
- ❖The global power balance is decisively shifting from the West to the East, with China leading in numerous economic and technological parameters, while the US's confrontational approach is self-defeating.
- ❖The US is characterized as the world's leading 'terrorist country' by a definition of violence against civilians for political purposes, given its history of interventions and sanctions.
- ❖Europe is seen as a 'vassal territory' to US dominance, lacking the self-respect or military/economic wherewithal to assert an independent security identity.
Insights
1Imminent US-Israel Strike on Iran Driven by Zionist Influence
Colonel Wilkerson and Larry Johnson assert that a substantial US-Israel military strike on Iran is being actively prepared, with carrier and fighter deployments. They argue this is heavily influenced by Israeli pressure, specifically from Benjamin Netanyahu, who they claim has used threats of nuclear action to compel US involvement. Larry Johnson points to the significant Zionist influence within Donald Trump's inner circle (e.g., Jared Kushner, Susie Wilds) as a key driver.
Col. Wilkerson describes a 'conops' (concept of operations) involving two carrier groups and thousands of bombs. Larry Johnson cites 'prominent Zionist' sources indicating strikes within 72 hours and the composition of Trump's advisors.
2Iran's Preparedness and Anticipated Catastrophic Retaliation
Contrary to US intelligence assessments, Iran is highly prepared for a military attack. They have stored ballistic missiles in secure underground facilities, acquired ample air defense systems (including S400s), and possess advanced hypersonic missiles. An attack would trigger immediate Iranian retaliation, including the destruction of US bases (Al Udeid, Saudi bases), the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (cutting off 45% of world oil), and severe devastation to Israel, which US air defense systems are ill-equipped to counter.
Larry Johnson details Iran's underground missile storage and new air defense systems, contrasting it with the 2003 Iraq war. He highlights US failures in the Red Sea as evidence of limited air power. Col. Wilkerson predicts a 'destroyed Israel'.
3CIA Manipulation of Intelligence and Trump's Cognitive Decline
The CIA is accused of fabricating intelligence to align with policy needs, similar to the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq war. This manipulated information, such as claims that Iran would 'collapse' after 300 cruise missiles, misleads decision-makers. Donald Trump's cognitive state, characterized by 'confabulation' (believing his own fantasies, like bringing peace to eight wars), makes him susceptible to such manipulation, further exacerbated by a circle of sycophants.
Larry Johnson cites Seymour Hersh's reporting on CIA lies regarding Russia's internet. He and Col. Wilkerson discuss Trump's 'dementia' and 'confabulation' as factors.
4US Foreign Policy Driven by Financial Self-Interest
Many US foreign policy decisions are primarily motivated by the financial enrichment of Donald Trump and his associates. The interventionist stance on Venezuela, for example, is framed not as a fight against drug trafficking or for oil supply, but to benefit billionaire Paul Singer, who owns specialized refineries for Venezuela's heavy crude, generating significant profits. Similarly, the push to 'acquire' Greenland is driven by the coveting of its rare earth minerals, despite the US having domestic reserves and lacking the processing capabilities, which China monopolizes.
Larry Johnson details the financial mechanics of Venezuelan oil refining and Paul Singer's connection to Trump. Col. Wilkerson mentions Trump's emissaries in Russia for financial gain. Both reference Trump's ambassador to Denmark openly coveting Greenland's minerals.
5Global Power Shift and US Self-Destruction
The global balance of power is undergoing a dramatic transition from West to East, with China emerging as a dominant force in nearly 70% of economic and technological parameters. The US's response—characterized by sanctions, military aggression, and attempts to create chaos—is seen as an incoherent and ultimately self-defeating strategy to arrest this shift. China is expected to avoid kinetic conflict, allowing the US to 'kill ourselves' through its own errors and destructive policies.
Col. Wilkerson cites a Singaporean expert on China's rise and the economic data showing China's lead. Larry Johnson points to China's 30-year economic presence in Latin America and the US's self-inflicted industrial decline.
Bottom Line
US sanctions are often more deadly to the civilian populations of targeted countries than conventional bombs, yet they are championed as a 'beautiful' tool of foreign policy.
This reframes the humanitarian impact of economic warfare, suggesting that seemingly non-kinetic actions can have severe, long-term consequences for ordinary citizens, often without achieving stated policy goals.
Develop alternative, more ethical, and effective foreign policy tools that avoid collective punishment, focusing on targeted measures that do not harm civilian populations.
The US, by Benjamin Netanyahu's definition of terrorism (violence against civilians for political purposes), is the world's leading terrorist country.
This challenges the conventional narrative of who constitutes a 'terrorist state,' forcing a re-evaluation of US historical actions and their moral implications on the global stage.
Promote international legal frameworks and accountability mechanisms that apply universally to all state actors, including major powers, to address violence against civilians.
China's long-term strategy, as articulated by Deng Xiaoping, was to leverage the US's own economic and strategic errors to facilitate China's rise, essentially allowing the US to 'kill ourselves'.
This suggests that China's ascendance is not solely due to its own efforts but also a consequence of deliberate US policy missteps, particularly the outsourcing of its industrial base.
Implement national industrial policies that prioritize domestic manufacturing and strategic independence, learning from past errors that inadvertently strengthened competitors.
Opportunities
Specialized Heavy Crude Oil Refining
Invest in or develop specialized refineries capable of processing 'peanut butter-like' heavy crude oil, as these facilities command a significant premium (e.g., $20/barrel) due to the complex refining process. This market niche offers substantial profit margins, as demonstrated by Paul Singer's operations with Venezuelan oil.
Rare Earth Mineral Processing Facilities
Establish advanced industrial-scale processing facilities for rare earth minerals outside of China. While rare earth minerals are plentiful globally, China holds a near-monopoly on processing. Investing in this capability would address a critical supply chain vulnerability for Western nations and create a new, high-demand industry.
Key Concepts
Confabulation
A symptom of dementia where an individual genuinely believes and recounts fabricated or distorted memories, often seen in Donald Trump's claims of achieving peace in multiple wars despite objective evidence to the contrary.
Lucy and Charlie Brown Foreign Policy
An analogy describing the US's consistent pattern of enticing foreign groups (like the Kurds or Hmong) to fight on its behalf with promises of support and protection, only to abandon them when blowback occurs, leaving them vulnerable and betrayed.
Lessons
- Critically evaluate official narratives regarding geopolitical conflicts and military buildups, considering potential underlying financial and political motivations.
- Diversify energy supply chains and strategic resource processing capabilities to reduce dependence on single regions or nations, mitigating risks from geopolitical instability.
- Advocate for foreign policies that prioritize collaboration and de-escalation over confrontation, especially with rising global powers, to avoid self-destructive outcomes.
- Support initiatives for domestic industrial base rebuilding and technological independence to counter the long-term economic and strategic consequences of outsourcing.
- Demand greater transparency and accountability from intelligence agencies and political leaders regarding the information used to justify military interventions and foreign policy decisions.
Notable Moments
The hosts and guests discuss the date of the podcast (January 24th, 2026), implying the events discussed are current for that future date.
This contextualizes the discussion, framing the 'imminent' events as contemporary to the podcast's internal timeline, not the actual recording date of the transcript.
Larry Johnson's detailed explanation of the Venezuelan oil situation, linking US policy directly to Paul Singer's financial interests.
This provides a concrete example of how alleged financial motives can drive significant foreign policy decisions, challenging the stated humanitarian or national security justifications.
The 'Lucy and Charlie Brown' analogy for US foreign policy, where the US entices foreign groups to fight and then abandons them.
This powerful analogy encapsulates a recurring pattern of US foreign relations, explaining why many former allies might harbor deep resentment and mistrust.
The discussion of the Davos meeting as a 'clown show' where Europe was 'humiliated' and exposed as a 'vassal territory' to US dominance.
This highlights the perceived decline of European autonomy and the growing assertiveness of US leadership in a way that undermines traditional alliances.
Quotes
"You got to keep this kind of chatter pattern going all the time to convince the people that you want to vote for you that you indeed are up against a serious threat in Southwest Asia, which is poppycock."
"I got to conclude that this is a pressure thing as well if it's not going to be executed. But I don't know that it's not going to be executed. And the other thing I don't know is whether or not BB hadn't pulled out the Trump card, which I'm told he pulled out before to get Trump to do the nuclear sight bombing. And that is that he's threatening to use a nuclear weapon if Trump doesn't join him."
"The problem I see is that it's like if you've cocked a gun and you're ready to shoot it, um, it's it's it's not impossible, but it is difficult to decock."
"What we're going to get it is is a destroyed Israel. I almost want to say bring it on in that regard."
"If an attack is launched on Iran, Iran's going to retaliate immediately. So, you know, kiss off Aluded Air Force Base, it'll be destroyed."
"The problem is that oil, you know, it's one thing like if you got a cup of coffee and you put a straw in and you suck the coffee out. No problem. Put peanut butter in that coffee cup and then try to suck it out. You know, very, very difficult. That oil that is in Venezuela is very thick. It's like peanut butter. And so once you get it out, you have to refine it. And it can't just be sent to any any regular refinery. It has to go to a specialized refinery."
"The power is moving out of the West and going to the east and it's a dramatic transition."
"If we follow BB Netanyahu's definition of terrorism, which I endorse, he presented it on Bill Buckley's show uh what was it? Crossfire or uh but was back in 1987 and the definition was very simple, elegant, the use of of violence against civilians for political purposes. With that as a definition of terrorism, the number one terrorist country in the world by definition is the United States. Un indisputable."
Q&A
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