Sarah Longwell: No One Should Trust this Government | The Bulwark Podcast
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US-Iran war was initiated without clear strategic planning, leading to immediate economic repercussions like soaring gas prices.
- ❖Trump's decision-making is influenced by a 'nihilist' approach, where traditional political consequences or public opinion hold no sway.
- ❖The administration is accused of lying about military actions, including a US missile strike on a school in southern Iran.
- ❖The US-Israel relationship is being re-evaluated by younger generations, who question reflexive support amid evolving geopolitical realities and perceived Israeli influence on US policy.
- ❖Domestic issues like DHS misrepresenting attacks on federal officers and government shutdowns further erode public trust in the government's competence and honesty.
- ❖Effective political communication in the current media landscape requires understanding voter 'vibes' and building diffuse, sticky communities, rather than relying on traditional top-down messaging.
Insights
1Economic Fallout from the Iran War
The war with Iran, initiated by the US, has immediately led to a significant spike in oil prices, reaching nearly $120 a barrel before settling around $100. This directly translates to higher gas and diesel prices, impacting every consumer product in America due to increased transportation costs. The hosts warn of potential stagflation, exacerbating existing economic issues like slowing job numbers and high inflation.
Oil prices skyrocketing to $120/barrel, diesel jumping from $3.69 to $4.99/gallon. Billy Bob Thornton's character in 'Land Man' stating that $100/barrel oil forces every product to readjust its price. Sarah Longwell notes existing macro-economic issues like slowing job numbers and high inflation.
2Trump's Nihilism and Isolation from Reality
Trump is portrayed as a nihilist who is indifferent to the impact of his decisions on the American people, his poll numbers, or even his own campaign promises. He is insulated by advisors who only offer praise, and he consumes information from a self-selected echo chamber (e.g., his own social media platform, polls showing 98% MAGA approval for the war). This isolation means traditional political analysis and consequences do not apply to him.
Trump not caring about making a case to the American people or his poll numbers (). Anecdote of White House staff only offering praise (). Trump's social media platform isolating him from criticism (). His 'world peace' rhetoric directly contradicting past isolationist campaigning ().
3Lack of Strategic Planning for the War
The US government, including the administration, appears to have been caught off guard by the rapid escalation into war with Iran. There was no apparent foresight to refill the strategic petroleum reserve when oil prices were low, and the administration avoids officially declaring 'war' due to its legal implications. This suggests a reactive, rather than strategic, approach to the conflict.
Trump waiting for lower oil prices to fill the strategic petroleum reserve (). Administration not officially declaring 'war' due to legal meaning (). Sarah Longwell's observation that the war 'caught all of the American government offguard' ().
4US Military Action and Government Deception
The US military bombed a school in southern Iran with a Tomahawk missile, an action initially denied by Trump. Despite evidence from military analysts (Bell & Cat) confirming US involvement, the administration lied about it. This deception, combined with a stated policy of being 'less limited by the rules of war,' erodes public trust and contradicts historical American military ethics.
Bombing of a school in southern Iran with a Tomahawk missile, identified by Bell & Cat (). Trump's denial and claim that 'Iran did it' (). Pete Hegseth's past demagoguery about 'taking off the chains' from the military ().
5Shifting Public Opinion on Israel and US Foreign Policy
Long-held reflexive support for Israel among American conservatives is being challenged, especially by younger voters across the political spectrum. Events like the October 7th attacks and subsequent Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank, coupled with perceived Israeli influence on US policy, are leading to increased skepticism and a willingness to criticize Israel's actions as 'too far' or 'too much.'
Hosts' personal grappling with reflexive support for Israel (). Lee Fang's quote about pundits claiming Israel has Western values despite actions (). Focus groups revealing younger voters questioning why they can't criticize Israel and why US soldiers are dying 'for Israel' (, ).
Bottom Line
Trump is drawn to the military's competence because his political appointees are often incompetent, creating a contrast where the military 'gets things done' (e.g., blowing things up, killing people) without the bureaucratic hurdles he faces elsewhere.
This suggests a dangerous dynamic where Trump might be more inclined to use military force due to its perceived efficiency and immediate results, rather than strategic necessity, potentially leading to more conflicts.
Analysts should focus on the perceived 'competence' of various government branches from Trump's perspective to predict his preferred tools of power.
The split between the 'MAGA' and 'America First' wings of the Republican party is becoming more pronounced, particularly on foreign policy issues like the Iran war. While MAGA loyalists support Trump regardless, the America First wing (represented by figures like Tucker Carlson, Megan Kelly, and JD Vance) is more isolationist and critical of foreign entanglements.
This internal division creates political vulnerability for figures like JD Vance who try to bridge both camps, as their support for the war can be seen as inconsistent, hurting their future political prospects beyond Trump.
Exploiting this ideological rift could be a strategy for opponents to weaken the Republican coalition, especially by highlighting inconsistencies in leaders who try to appeal to both factions.
The current political environment, characterized by a nihilistic leader, necessitates updating traditional political analysis. Relying on 'political gravity' (the idea that bad actions have inevitable negative political consequences) is insufficient when a leader is indifferent to those consequences and insulated from reality.
This means that predicting political outcomes requires understanding the leader's internal motivations and information bubbles, rather than solely external factors like public opinion or economic indicators.
Develop new analytical frameworks that account for leaders operating outside traditional political norms, focusing on psychological profiles and information flow within insulated power structures.
Key Concepts
Nihilist Political Gravity
This model describes a political environment where traditional consequences for leaders (e.g., declining poll numbers due to economic hardship, hypocrisy, or loss of life) do not apply to a leader who is a 'nihilist' and indifferent to public opinion. Such a leader operates outside normal political gravity, insulated by sycophantic advisors and a self-reinforcing information ecosystem.
Voter Vibe Economy
In a fragmented and atomized media environment, voters, especially younger ones, increasingly base their political decisions and perceptions on 'vibes' or general feelings rather than detailed policy information. This necessitates a shift in political communication strategies towards narrative dominance, authentic 'human' connection, and community building, rather than traditional policy debates.
Lessons
- Update your political analysis: Recognize that traditional 'political gravity' may not apply to leaders exhibiting nihilistic tendencies or who are insulated from public opinion.
- Prioritize listening to voters: Understand that different generations and voter segments process political information and form opinions based on varying factors, including 'vibes' and personal consequences like gas prices.
- Scrutinize government claims: Maintain skepticism towards official narratives, especially regarding military actions or domestic issues, given evidence of government deception and lack of transparency.
Notable Moments
The hosts discuss a prediction from Nick Fuentes, a far-right figure, that Trump might consider dropping a nuclear bomb to solidify his 'historic figure' status, which gave Tim Miller a 'jump scare' due to its unsettling logic.
This moment highlights the extreme and potentially dangerous interpretations of Trump's megalomania, even from unexpected sources, and underscores the hosts' deep concern about his decision-making.
Sarah Longwell recounts a scene from the movie 'Memphis Belle' where a bomber crew risks their lives to avoid bombing innocent civilians, contrasting it with the current administration's alleged actions and lies about hitting a school in Iran.
This illustrates a perceived erosion of American military ethics and accountability under the current administration, challenging long-held ideals of how the US conducts warfare.
Quotes
"Trump, he doesn't care about making a case to the American people. He doesn't care what we think. He doesn't even care about his poll numbers. He doesn't He already won."
"This war is the first time that I'm like, I I don't I don't I didn't think that he was going to be this stupid. Like, it's it's stupider than I expected."
"Nobody should trust this government. This version of our government isn't trustworthy. And so for people to be skeptical then of what it does is fair and different than the way things were 12 years ago."
"I don't understand why I can't say that what I think Israel is doing is wrong. like they're just like people keep telling them they can't say it and they don't know why they can't say it because they don't kind of have that same quite the thing that we have maybe"
Q&A
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