Secret Podcast Preview: JVL Wants Every Trump Voter to Know One Thing...
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Some Trump voters are expressing regret, driven by economic concerns like high gas prices, creating an opening for persuasion.
- ❖The proliferation of information, while seemingly positive, can paradoxically fuel conspiracy theories by overwhelming voters.
- ❖The Supreme Court's stance on gerrymandering is leading to a 'tit-for-tat' political arms race, with states aggressively redrawing districts.
- ❖The Bulwark's primary focus is on preserving liberal democracy, even if it means setting aside traditional policy preferences or supporting unconventional candidates.
- ❖The ability to acknowledge mistakes and apologize (or at least feign it) is a critical distinction between liberal and illiberal politics.
Insights
1Trump Voter Regret Driven by Economic Realities
Sarah Longwell's focus groups indicate a growing sentiment of regret among Trump voters, primarily fueled by current economic conditions like high gas prices. They made a 'bargain' to overlook Trump's flaws for a good economy, and with that benefit gone, they feel the consequences.
JVL suggests driving an hour and a half outside major cities reveals 'Mississippi' where people are concerned about diesel prices (). Sarah notes focus groups show people saying 'this was a mistake' regarding their vote, linking it to 'things are too expensive' and a belief that Trump would lower prices ().
2Conspiracies as a Byproduct of Information Overload
David from the focus group podcast posits that conspiracy theories are the 'price we pay for voters having much more information than we used to.' People aren't dumber, but they are overwhelmed, leading them to incomplete or misinformed conclusions when faced with too much data.
Sarah quotes David: 'conspiracies are the price we pay for voters having much more information than we used to.' She elaborates that people are 'overwhelmed by the information environment' and have 'enough to be dangerous but not enough information to have a clear picture' ().
3Gerrymandering as a 'Constitutional Hardball' Arms Race
The Supreme Court's decisions on gerrymandering, particularly regarding racial gerrymandering, are initiating a 'tit-for-tat' battle between parties. While Democrats are against gerrymandering in principle, they feel compelled to engage in it to avoid unilateral disarmament, leading to a cycle of escalating political maneuvers.
JVL discusses Nate Cohn's New York Times piece on Republicans gaining 13 seats through new gerrymandering in the South (). Sarah explains Democrats' dilemma: they have good government legislation preventing gerrymandering in their states, but feel forced to undo it to compete (). She frames it as 'constitutional hardball games' leading to a 'tit for tat' ().
4The Bulwark's Core Mission: Preserving Liberal Democracy
The hosts clarify that The Bulwark's stance is not about left-right policy preferences but about defending liberal democracy against illiberal threats, particularly from figures like Donald Trump. Their individual policy preferences are secondary to ensuring free and fair elections and a non-corrupt presidency.
Sarah states, 'our individual policy preferences mattered not just a little less but a great deal less than the highest order thing which is liberal democracy in America' (). She emphasizes, 'we don't view things on a left right spectrum anymore' but rather on whether 'we have voting rights? Do we are we holding free and fair elections?' ().
5Liberalism Demands Hypocrisy (or Growth), Illiberalism Refuses It
A key distinction between liberal and illiberal politics is the role of apology and the capacity for change. Liberalism, even if it sometimes means 'hypocrisy,' demands that individuals apologize or at least pretend to adhere to shared values when caught in wrongdoing. Illiberalism, conversely, refuses to apologize, doubles down, and celebrates vice, directly undermining those values.
JVL argues, 'illiberalism refuses to engage in hypocrisy... It never apologizes. It just doubles down.' Sarah counters, 'But does it have to be hypocrisy? Like can't it be growth?' (). She also highlights Platner's apology for past behavior as a positive sign, unlike Trump's refusal to apologize ().
Bottom Line
The rise of populist candidates like Graham Platner and John Fetterman, despite their 'unsavory' aspects or past controversies, reflects a voter desire for 'authentic' figures who don't feel like 'regular politicians.'
Traditional political parties and media often struggle to understand or effectively counter this appeal, as their criteria for electability or 'good governance' differ significantly from what a segment of the electorate values.
Political strategists seeking to defeat illiberal movements may need to embrace or cultivate populist candidates who can connect with voters on an emotional and 'authentic' level, even if it means compromising on ideological purity or traditional political decorum.
The 'honor system' of American democracy is breaking down, forcing those who value liberal institutions to consider 'constitutional hardball' tactics they previously opposed.
This shift indicates a profound crisis in democratic norms, where the traditional guardrails are no longer sufficient, and defensive measures may inadvertently contribute to further erosion of trust or escalation.
There's a potential for a national consensus on non-partisan redistricting if enough voters experience the direct negative consequences of gerrymandering, leading to a 'truce' and new legislation.
Key Concepts
Constitutional Hardball
A political strategy where actors push the boundaries of constitutional norms and procedures to gain partisan advantage, often leading to a 'tit-for-tat' escalation where each side responds in kind.
Shared Reality
The concept that a common understanding of facts and events is essential for a functioning democracy, which is increasingly eroded by the overwhelming and fragmented information environment that can lead to divergent conclusions and conspiracy theories.
Hypocrisy as a Social Virtue
The idea that in a liberal democracy, even insincere apologies or adherence to stated values (hypocrisy) can be beneficial, as it forces actors to at least pay lip service to norms, preventing the outright triumph of vice and illiberalism.
Lessons
- Monitor local and state-level redistricting efforts, as Supreme Court decisions are empowering aggressive gerrymandering that could significantly alter electoral outcomes.
- Recognize that economic conditions, particularly issues like gas prices, are potent drivers of voter sentiment and can shift support even among loyal bases.
- Focus on messaging that allows for voter 'regret' and 'acknowledgement' of past mistakes, as this creates an opening for persuasion, rather than solely 'rubbing their noses in it'.
Notable Moments
JVL's 'Mississippi' analogy for rural areas outside major cities, even in Union states, to illustrate the political divide and concerns over gas prices.
It vividly portrays the cultural and economic chasm that exists within the country, highlighting the distinct concerns of different voter segments.
Sarah Longwell's defense of The Bulwark's mission, stating that their individual policy preferences are secondary to preserving liberal democracy.
This moment clarifies the core ideological stance of The Bulwark, explaining why they might align with unexpected political positions or candidates in the current political climate.
Quotes
"If you drive an hour and a half outside of any major city in America, you're in Mississippi."
"Conspiracies are the price we pay for voters having much more information than we used to."
"Regret is a good helpful thing... because it says I'm not going to do that again. I made a mistake. That is what we are looking for."
"Our individual policy preferences mattered not just a little less but a great deal less than the highest order thing which is liberal democracy in America."
"Liberalism demands hypocrisy. Liberalism demands that even if people are bad people, they apologize sincerely or insincerely for when they get caught and that they pretend that liberal values are the things that we're supposed to all adhere to."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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