Primaries are Creating a Political Doom Loop (w/ Nick Troiano) | Mona Charen Show
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Partisan primaries are the primary driver of political polarization, with over 90% of House seats decided in these low-turnout contests.
- ❖Only 7% of eligible voters nationally participate in primaries, allowing a small group of party activists to select candidates.
- ❖The 'primaried' phenomenon forces incumbents to adhere strictly to party lines, fearing challenges from more extreme candidates.
- ❖Open all-candidate primaries, often combined with ranked-choice voting, allow all voters to participate and ensure majority winners.
- ❖States like Alaska and Louisiana demonstrate that these reforms lead to more pragmatic, problem-solving leaders.
- ❖Achieving these reforms in 10 states could liberate over 20 US senators and 100 representatives from extreme primary pressures.
Insights
1Partisan Primaries Drive Polarization and Disenfranchisement
The vast majority of U.S. elections (over 90% of House districts) are effectively decided in partisan primaries, not general elections. These primaries see extremely low turnout (e.g., 7% of eligible voters nationally in 2024), meaning a small, unrepresentative group of party activists determines who advances. This system forces candidates to appeal to the ideological fringes, pushing both parties to extremes and leaving millions of independent voters (including majorities of veterans and young people) disenfranchised in 16 states.
In the 2024 primaries across Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas, 53 out of 56 districts were decided, with 16 having only one candidate from the majority party. Congressman Dan Crenshaw lost his primary to a more extreme MAGA-aligned challenger, and Congresswoman Valerie Foushee faced a strong challenge from a further-left progressive, illustrating the pressure on incumbents to align with party extremes.
2The 'Primaried' Phenomenon and its Impact on Governance
The fear of being 'primaried' (challenged and defeated in a primary election) is a dominant incentive for incumbents. This fear causes elected officials to prioritize party loyalty and ideological purity over bipartisan compromise, even on critical issues. This dynamic has led to a decline in problem-solving-oriented public servants, as many either leave office or opt out of running due to the toxic primary environment.
The term 'primaried' became common in the early 2000s, with examples like Senator Arlen Specter (2004) and Senator Joe Lieberman (2006). More recently, figures like Kirsten Cinema, Joe Manchin, Mitt Romney, and Rob Portman are leaving Congress, often due to the pressures of primary challenges. Dan Crenshaw's primary loss, despite being a conservative, for rejecting 2020 election lies, exemplifies this pressure.
3Open All-Candidate Primaries with Ranked-Choice Voting as a Solution
The proposed solution involves states adopting open all-candidate primaries, where all registered voters receive a single ballot listing all candidates, regardless of party. The top finishers (e.g., top two or top four) then advance to a general election, often utilizing ranked-choice voting (RCV). RCV allows voters to rank candidates by preference, ensuring that the winner achieves a majority of votes and eliminating the 'spoiler effect' for independent candidates.
Alaska adopted this system in 2020, leading to the re-election of Senator Lisa Murkowski, who voted to impeach Trump. Under the old system, she likely would have lost her primary, as she did in 2010. Louisiana, with a similar system for 50 years, has one of the least polarized state legislatures and has produced pragmatic leaders like former Governor John Bell Edwards (a pro-life Democrat in a red state) and Senator Bill Cassidy (who also voted for impeachment).
4The Path to Systemic Change: 10 States as a Tipping Point
Because election rules are set at the state level, reform does not require a constitutional amendment or an act of Congress. Currently, three states (California, Washington, Alaska) use open all-candidate primaries for federal elections, with Nebraska and Louisiana doing so at the state legislative level. Expanding this to 10 states would mean approximately 20 US senators and over 100 representatives would be elected under a system that incentivizes representing a broad majority, fostering more pragmatic and problem-solving leaders.
Alaska adopted its reform via a citizen ballot initiative in 2020. New Mexico recently opened its previously closed primary through a bipartisan legislative bill. The guest argues that if 10 states adopt these reforms, it will create a tipping point for national political change.
Bottom Line
Investing in election reform, specifically primary reform, represents some of the highest ROI philanthropy available.
Unlike issue-specific philanthropy, which addresses symptoms, funding election reform tackles the root cause of political dysfunction. By changing the incentives for elected officials, it creates a durable positive impact across all policy areas (debt, climate, healthcare, immigration) and strengthens democracy itself.
Wealthy individuals and foundations seeking to make a systemic, long-term impact on governance and societal progress should prioritize funding organizations like Unite America and its partners, which work on state-level election reforms.
Opportunities
Political Philanthropy Fund for Election Reform
Establish a dedicated philanthropic fund or venture philanthropy model focused exclusively on supporting state-level ballot initiatives and legislative efforts for open all-candidate primaries and ranked-choice voting. This fund would identify high-leverage states and provide strategic, long-term capital to grassroots organizations, advocacy groups, and legal efforts.
Key Concepts
The Political Doom Loop
This model describes a self-reinforcing cycle where partisan primaries incentivize extreme candidates, who then further polarize the electorate and discourage compromise, leading to a dysfunctional government and an even more polarized political environment.
The Gatekeeping Function (Lost)
Historically, political parties served a gatekeeping role, ensuring that nominated candidates were electable and broadly appealing. Modern partisan primaries have outsourced this function to small groups of activists and ideologues, often resulting in candidates who cannot win general elections or are unwilling to compromise.
Lessons
- Educate yourself and others on how your state's primary system works and its impact on political representation.
- Support or volunteer with organizations like Unite America, Veterans for All Voters, The Independence Center, Let Us Vote, or Rank the Vote, which are actively working on primary reform at local and state levels.
- Advocate for open all-candidate primaries and ranked-choice voting in your state, either through citizen ballot initiatives (if available) or by contacting your state legislators.
- If you are a political independent, engage with groups fighting for your right to vote in primaries, as 16 states currently disenfranchise unaffiliated voters.
Implementing Primary Election Reform at the State Level
**Assess State Mechanism:** Determine if your state allows citizen ballot initiatives (voters can propose and approve laws) or if reform must go through the legislature.
**Build Bipartisan Coalitions:** Gather support from diverse groups, including independents, moderate Democrats, and Republicans, emphasizing the benefits of broader representation and functional governance.
**Advocate for Open All-Candidate Primaries:** Push for a system where all voters receive a single ballot with all candidates, and the top finishers advance to the general election.
**Integrate Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV):** Pair the open primary with RCV in the general election to ensure majority winners and eliminate the 'spoiler effect,' allowing voters to rank candidates by preference.
**Secure Funding and Grassroots Support:** Engage political philanthropy and mobilize grassroots activists to fund campaigns, lobby legislators, and educate the public on the benefits of these reforms.
Notable Moments
Lisa Murkowski's 2022 re-election in Alaska under the new primary system, despite voting to impeach Trump and facing a Trump-endorsed challenger.
This demonstrates the system's ability to protect independent-minded politicians from primary challenges, allowing them to represent a broader constituency rather than just their party's base. It highlights how the reform changes incentives for elected officials.
The historical context of primaries, initially conceived as a pro-democracy reform in the early 1900s to combat 'party bosses' and machine politics.
This provides a crucial perspective that the current problems are not inherent to primaries but stem from their evolution alongside increased ideological polarization and a fragmented information ecosystem. It frames the current reform efforts as a continuation of historical democratic improvements.
Quotes
"Party primaries is actually the biggest solvable problem fueling polarization today."
"You have a very small number of people deciding who the representatives are in the vast majority of elections. And those small number of people, the party activists who come out to vote in primaries, largely aren't representative of the electorate as a whole."
"The parties are giving up competitive seats because they have outsourced their nominating process to small groups of party activists and ideologues that often aren't very interested in backing the most competitive candidate."
"In 16 states, if you are a political independent, if you're unaffiliated with either major party, you literally cannot cast a ballot in the elections that you pay for and that matter most."
"If we can get that number from three to 10 states that have open all candidate primaries, that would mean 20 US senators... and likely over a 100 representatives... who would be liberated from party primaries and have the incentive to truly represent a majority of their constituents."
Q&A
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