Chas Freeman: Hezbollah Strikes Israel Hard – Israel Now Prepares for WAR with Egypt & Turkey
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Hezbollah's fiber-optic guided FPV drones are proving highly effective against Israeli military assets, posing a strategic problem for Israel.
- ❖Israel is accused of planning to annex southern Lebanon and expand control over Gaza to 70%, with rhetoric suggesting 'ethnic cleansing' and 'voluntary exit' for Palestinians.
- ❖Jonathan Pollard, a convicted Israeli spy now running for Knesset, openly discusses preparing for future wars against Turkey and Egypt.
- ❖The US Congress is reportedly exploring legislation to fuse American and Israeli militaries, despite declining American public support for Israel.
- ❖Israel's actions are described as 'sociopathic,' lacking empathy, and driven by paranoia, leading to a loss of global support.
- ❖The term 'final solution' used by Netanyahu regarding Iran is directly linked to Nazi lexicon and implies extermination.
- ❖The US's unconditional support for Israel has created a 'moral hazard,' allowing Israel to act against its long-term interests.
- ❖The establishment of Israel in 1948 was predicted by figures like George C. Marshall to 'poison the Middle East' and create instability.
- ❖The war in Ukraine is a proxy conflict where drone warfare has caused a stalemate, leading to escalation into deep strikes and potential nuclear threats.
- ❖AI is a tool for data retrieval and logical sequencing, but it cannot make independent judgments or provide information not already known by humans.
Insights
1Hezbollah's Drone Warfare Poses a Strategic Threat to Israel
Hezbollah's use of fiber-optic guided FPV (First-Person View) drones is inflicting significant damage on Israeli troops, vehicles, and air defense systems. These drones are difficult to disrupt because they don't rely on wireless signals, marking a fundamental shift in warfare demonstrated previously in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This tactical success is making Israel's military operations in southern Lebanon increasingly difficult.
An Israeli commander stated that FPV drones, initially a technical problem, are now a strategic problem, hitting Israeli weapons, air defense, communication systems, and troop gatherings, with no current solution found. Ambassador Freeman notes these drones are fiber-optic guided and 'taking a quite heavy toll'.
2Israel's Expansionist Ambitions and 'Ethnic Cleansing' Plans
Israel is actively pursuing annexation and 'ethnic cleansing' in southern Lebanon and Gaza. Plans include taking territory south of the Safrani River in Lebanon to turn it into 'the equivalent of Gaza,' and expanding Israeli control over Gaza to 70%, with the intent for Gazans to 'voluntarily exit' and the area to be resettled by Israelis. This rhetoric is compared to 'Orwellian language' and Nazi-era 'voluntary' removals.
Netanyahu issued a directive to expand Israeli control in Gaza to 70%. Defense Minister Israel Katz stated Gazans will 'voluntarily exit' and Gaza will be 'ethnically cleansed and resettled by Israelis'. The same is 'contemplated in southern Lebanon'.
3US Unconditional Support Creates a 'Moral Hazard' for Israel
The unwavering and unconditional support from the United States has created a 'moral hazard' for Israel, allowing it to undertake actions that are not in its long-term interest. Israel assumes the US will always intervene to save it from the consequences of its own aggressive policies, leading to reckless behavior and a lack of accountability.
Freeman states, 'The unconditional support of the United States for Israel and everything Israel does has created what a moral hazard. And Israel has walked right into it.' He adds, 'Israel does all kinds of things which if it were sober-minded, rational, and concerned about its long-term interests, it would not do. It puts itself in danger because it assumes the United States will always be there to save it from its own from the consequences of its own actions.'
4Israel's 'Final Solution' Rhetoric and Sociopathic Nature
Benjamin Netanyahu's use of the phrase 'final solution' regarding Iran is a direct and chilling reference to the Nazi lexicon for the extermination of Jews. This, coupled with statements from figures like Jonathan Pollard advocating for wars against Egypt and Turkey, reflects a 'sociopathic' and paranoid Israeli society that lacks empathy for non-Israelis and seeks absolute security through the subjugation or extermination of its neighbors.
Netanyahu said, 'we must complete the mission in Iran in a way that constitutes a final solution.' Freeman notes this phrase 'comes directly out of the Nazi lexicon' and asks, 'What does he propose? The extermination of Muslims, of Christians in West Asia?' He describes Israeli society as 'totally sociopathic' and 'paranoid'.
Bottom Line
The US Congress is actively considering legislation to 'fuse' American and Israeli militaries, removing barriers and making everything joint, despite strong public opposition to increased cooperation with Israel.
This legislative push indicates a deep disconnect between the American political elite and public sentiment regarding Israel, potentially leading to further erosion of public trust in US institutions and greater entanglement in Middle Eastern conflicts.
Advocacy groups and media could highlight this legislative effort to mobilize public opinion and pressure representatives to align foreign policy with voter preferences, potentially fostering a more independent US foreign policy.
Iran has redefined its control over the Strait of Hormuz, moving from 'arbitrary tolls' to 'administrative fees, navigational fees, fees for services,' indicating a flexible but firm stance on its control.
This redefinition suggests Iran is seeking to legitimize its control and monetize transit through the Strait in a more internationally acceptable manner, rather than outright blockade. This could be a basis for future negotiations but does not imply relinquishing control.
International shipping and energy companies should monitor these 'fees' and engage with Iranian authorities to understand the new framework, potentially leading to more predictable transit costs and reduced uncertainty in a critical global chokepoint.
Key Concepts
Moral Hazard
The idea that insulation from risk (e.g., unconditional US support for Israel) encourages riskier behavior, as the party believes they will be protected from the negative consequences of their actions.
Greek Tragedy
A narrative where the outcome is obvious from the beginning, driven by the protagonist's flaws or fate, leading to an inevitable and tragic downfall, despite warnings from a 'chorus'.
Zugzwang (Chess Term)
A situation, particularly in chess, where any move a player makes will worsen their position. Applied to the US and Israel in the context of Iran, suggesting any action leads to defeat.
Lessons
- Scrutinize official statements from Israeli and US leaders for language that mirrors historical atrocities, such as 'final solution' or 'voluntary exit,' to understand underlying intentions.
- Monitor legislative efforts in the US Congress aimed at integrating the American and Israeli militaries, and engage with elected officials to express concerns about potential foreign policy implications.
- Educate oneself and others on the historical context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the broader Middle East, recognizing the distinct differences between religious traditions (Judaism, Islam, Christianity) and political ideologies (Zionism, ISIS).
Notable Moments
Discussion of Jonathan Pollard, a convicted Israeli spy, running for Knesset and openly advocating for future wars against Turkey and Egypt.
This highlights the extreme and expansionist views gaining traction within Israeli politics, signaling potential future conflicts and the normalization of aggressive rhetoric from a figure with a controversial past.
The host and guest discuss the profound ignorance in the US regarding the relationship between Islam, Christianity, and Judaism, citing an anecdote where a journalist was surprised Islam was related to the other two.
This underscores a critical barrier to informed public discourse and policy-making regarding the Middle East, as a lack of fundamental understanding can lead to misinterpretations and biased perspectives on complex conflicts.
Quotes
"Hezbollah has developed real military capabilities. Its soldiers are its fighters are battle-hardened from the time in Syria. And it has a record of defeating the Israelis in their various invasions of Lebanon."
"Nobody believes anything Israel says now. Because it transparently violates every agreement that it makes or is said to have made."
"I look at Iran as a problem we absolutely have to finish. Gaza, same thing and the Hezbollah. Why Why am I fixated on this now? Because we have to be prepared for the next war, which will be probably against Turkey and Egypt."
"Basically what we have is a society in Israel that has become totally sociopathic. It has no empathy for anyone other than its own constituents. It is paranoid. It believes everyone is out to kill Jews."
"The phrase final solution is something that comes directly out of the Nazi lexicon. And it referred to the extermination of European Jews. What does he propose? The extermination of Muslims, of Christians in West Asia?"
"The establishment of the state of Israel would poison the Middle East. It would create instability, turmoil, and suffering for everyone."
"ISIS, the Islamic State, Daesh is for Islam what Zionism is for Judaism. Zionism is a heresy. It is a idolatry. It is a deviation and it's a perversion of Islam."
Q&A
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