Is 2026 Turning Into a Blue Wave? (w/ Bill Kristol) | The Bulwark Podcast
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Conservative reactions to cultural events (Super Bowl halftime, Olympic athletes' comments) reveal a 'grievance culture' and 'patriotic correctness' that alienates voters.
- ❖Democrats should push to separate DHS funding, ensuring essential services like FEMA are funded while explicitly debating and reducing funding for ICE and Border Patrol.
- ❖A recent Democratic special election victory in a Trump +13 Louisiana district suggests a potential 'vibe shift' and 'blue wave' for Democrats.
- ❖Jon Ossoff's messaging, which attacks MAGA as the 'Epstein class' and highlights Trump's policies harming rural communities for the benefit of the wealthy, is an effective strategy for Democrats.
- ❖Democrats need to provide concrete examples and tie Republican policies directly to negative impacts on working-class Americans to win over disaffected voters.
Insights
1MAGA's Grievance Culture and 'Patriotic Correctness' as a Political Liability
The hosts argue that conservative outrage over cultural events, such as the Super Bowl halftime show featuring Bad Bunny or Olympic athletes expressing nuanced views on America, stems from a 'grievance culture' and 'patriotic correctness.' This constant state of offense, exemplified by figures like Rob Schneider calling for citizenship stripping, is seen as an 'affront to the good part of America'—the ability to love and criticize one's country simultaneously. This approach alienates a broader electorate.
Discussion of Trump's and Clay Travis's critiques of the Bad Bunny halftime show (), and Rob Schneider's, Katie Miller's, and Megan Kelly's calls to strip citizenship from critical Olympians ().
2Strategic Defunding of ICE and Border Patrol
Bill Kristol advises Democrats to go on offense by proposing to separate the DHS funding bill into essential services (like FEMA, Coast Guard) and immigration enforcement (ICE, Border Patrol). This would force Republicans to publicly defend funding for agencies perceived to be engaged in 'bad things to immigrants' and 'election interference,' thereby creating a clear political contrast and potentially reducing funding for these controversial operations.
Kristol's proposal to separate DHS funding to focus on defunding ICE and Border Patrol, arguing 'the less funding for ICE and Border Patrol, the less funding for ICE and Border Patrol, the better' ().
3Evidence of a Democratic 'Vibe Shift' in Red States
A recent special election in Louisiana saw Democrat Chassity Martinez win by a significant margin (two-to-one) in a district that voted for Trump by +13. This, combined with other special election results, indicates a broader 'wave-ish' pattern where Democrats are making inroads, particularly among non-college educated white working-class voters and women, who show unhappiness with Trump's economic policies and immigration stances.
Chassity Martinez's landslide victory in a Trump +13 Louisiana House special election (), with the district having only 27% bachelor's degree holders ().
4Jon Ossoff's Populist Messaging as a Democratic Model
Jon Ossoff's speech is presented as an effective model for Democrats. He successfully appeals to a broad coalition by framing MAGA as the 'Epstein class'—a government 'of, by, and for the ultra-rich' that betrays working-class Americans. He uses concrete examples like closing rural clinics for tax breaks benefiting figures like Soros and Musk, and critiques Trump's foreign policy from a populist left perspective, allowing him to resonate with progressives, moderates, and even disaffected Trump voters.
Excerpts from Jon Ossoff's speech, including 'This is a government of, by, and for the ultra rich. It is the wealthiest cabinet ever. This is the Epstein class ruling our country' () and 'closing rural clinics and hospitals to cut taxes for George Soros and Elon Musk' ().
Lessons
- Democrats should proactively separate DHS funding bills, advocating for full funding of essential services while explicitly challenging and seeking to defund ICE and Border Patrol to highlight Republican priorities.
- Democratic candidates, especially in red and purple states, should adopt a populist economic message that directly links Republican policies (e.g., tax cuts) to negative impacts on working-class communities (e.g., rural hospital closures).
- Candidates should use concrete, relatable examples to demonstrate how Trump's policies have betrayed his working-class base, thereby creating a coherent narrative that appeals across the political spectrum.
Notable Moments
Discussion of the 'patriotic correctness' backlash against the Super Bowl halftime show and Olympic athletes' comments.
Illustrates the hosts' view of a pervasive 'grievance culture' on the right, which they believe is politically unsustainable and alienates many Americans.
Bill Kristol's advice to Democrats on how to approach the DHS funding bill.
Provides a specific, aggressive political strategy for Democrats to gain leverage and expose Republican priorities regarding immigration enforcement.
Analysis of Jon Ossoff's speech as a successful model for Democratic messaging.
Offers a concrete example of how Democrats can craft a message that appeals to both progressive and moderate voters by focusing on economic populism and exposing perceived corruption.
Quotes
"They're just full of grievance and resentment that some 23-year-old kid in whatever those bizarre sports that you like so much are what whatever those things incidentally."
"This is a government of, by, and for the ultra rich. It is the wealthiest cabinet ever. This is the Epstein class ruling our country."
"Trump was supposed to fight for the working class. Instead, he's literally closing rural clinics and hospitals to cut taxes for George Soros and Elon Musk."
"I mean, the moderates still want to be sound like Bill Clinton on on economics are just wrong. I mean, I I just think they're out of it now at this point. And you got to sound more like Franklin Roosevelt."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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