Scott Ritter: Iran Wins the Long War — U.S. & Israel Losing Ground!
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Scott Ritter views Pete Hegseth's confident statements about US military success as 'bluster' designed to mask significant strategic trouble in the region, where Iran holds the initiative.
- ❖Iran's strategy aims to permanently evict the United States from the Middle East by attacking military, diplomatic, and intelligence facilities, and pressuring host nations to expel US forces.
- ❖Hezbollah's attacks on Israel demonstrate the ineffectiveness of Israeli air defense systems against sophisticated weaponry.
- ❖The US is moving critical THAAD air defense systems from South Korea to the Middle East, signaling a prioritization of Israel over Pacific allies and undermining US geopolitical posture against China and North Korea.
- ❖Ritter asserts that Israel, not just its current government, is the most dangerous threat to global peace and security, viewing it as a 'parasite' on the global community.
- ❖Gulf Arab states are criticized for their military weakness, reliance on mercenaries, and perceived 'complete subordination' to Israel and the US, with their populations urged to revolt against 'corrupt regimes.'
- ❖A US ground invasion of Iran is deemed logistically impossible and militarily suicidal, given Iran's prepared mountainous terrain and the US's diminished capacity for large-scale deployments.
- ❖US strategic advice on Iran is dismissed as incompetent, coming from 'Delta Force knuckle-dragging losers' who lack real understanding of Iranian culture and resilience.
- ❖The destruction of a $1.1 billion early warning radar in Qatar significantly blinds the US-led coalition, enhancing Iran's ability to ensure missile strikes hit their intended targets.
- ❖India is seen as an 'absolute tool of the United States and by extension a tool of greater Israel,' despite its BRICS membership, due to its support for economic corridors involving Israel and its energy dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.
Insights
1Iran's Strategic Initiative and US Weakness
Scott Ritter contends that Iran has taken the strategic initiative in the Middle East, forcing the United States to constantly re-evaluate its plans. He dismisses US officials' confident statements as 'bluster' to distract from Iran's effective attacks on US and allied facilities.
Ritter states, 'Iran has the strategic initiative. It's the United States that's re-evaluating its plans every 24 hours, not Iran.' He also mentions Pete Hegseth 'screaming loudly in order to impress on everybody that we have a big stick' but suggests this disguises US trouble in the region.
2US Prioritization of Israel Over Global Allies
The US is reportedly moving its advanced THAAD missile defense systems from South Korea to the Middle East to defend Israel. Ritter argues this demonstrates the US's willingness to 'sell anybody out for Israel,' undermining its alliances in the Pacific and elsewhere.
Ritter notes, 'the THAAD that was deployed in South Korea is being removed from South Korea. What's that tell the South Koreans?' He concludes, 'We now know that the United States will sell anybody out for Israel.'
3Gulf Arab States' Military Incapacity and Subordination
Ritter characterizes Gulf Arab states as militarily incompetent, relying on mercenaries, and completely subservient to Israeli and US will. He argues their monarchies have 'sold out' their populations and are complicit in actions against other Arab peoples.
Ritter states, 'Saudi Arabia has been trying to defeat Ansla since 2014 and they haven't done it.' He describes Emirati citizens as 'fat, pale, soft hands, soft skinned affeminite because they don't know how to fight.' He also claims the Abraham Accords were 'about the Arabs subordinating themselves to a greater Israel.'
4Impossibility of a US Ground Invasion of Iran
Ritter asserts that the US lacks the logistical capability and readiness for a large-scale ground invasion of Iran. He highlights the challenges of deploying hundreds of thousands of troops, securing ports against Iranian missiles, and navigating Iran's mountainous, prepared terrain.
Ritter contrasts current US deployment capabilities ('takes six months advanced notice to get that unit ready to move' for a heavy brigade) with Cold War readiness. He details the impossibility of offloading at Gulf ports due to Iranian missile threats and the defensive advantages of Iran's geography.
5Iran's Sophisticated Deception and Counter-Strategy
Iran has spent decades preparing for conflict with the US and Israel, developing sophisticated strategies to counter their military tactics. This includes using decoys, manipulating signal intelligence, and evacuating high-value targets from facilities before they are bombed.
Ritter explains, 'The Iranians are experts at being Iranians... They've been watching the United States fight since the Gulf War.' He describes how Iran uses decoys and 'flood the airwaves with communications' to divert US resources, allowing real missile launches to succeed.
6Destruction of Qatari Early Warning Radar
The recent destruction of a $1.1 billion ballistic missile early warning radar in Qatar by Iran significantly degrades the US-led coalition's ability to detect and intercept Iranian missile launches, giving Iran a crucial advantage.
Ritter explains the radar's function: 'to provide early warning early detection of Iranian ballistic missile launches.' Its elimination means 'you don't have that early warning. So now the Iranians get a leg up.'
Bottom Line
The US military's current logistical and deployment capabilities are severely degraded compared to the Cold War era, making large-scale ground operations like an invasion of Iran practically impossible within a reasonable timeframe.
This implies that US threats of ground intervention in the Middle East are largely hollow, limiting its coercive power and potentially emboldening adversaries like Iran who understand these limitations.
Nations seeking to counter US influence could exploit this logistical vulnerability by developing asymmetric defense strategies that negate traditional large-scale power projection, focusing on distributed, mobile, and hardened assets.
The Abraham Accords were not about mutual economic benefit but rather the 'complete subordination of the Gulf Arab states to Israel,' with the US acting as a facilitator for 'Greater Israel's' agenda.
This redefines the motivation and outcome of these diplomatic agreements, suggesting they primarily served Israeli expansionist goals rather than regional stability or genuine Arab-Israeli peace.
States and non-state actors opposed to this dynamic could leverage this narrative to delegitimize the accords and rally regional populations against their 'corrupt monarchies' and their perceived complicity with Israel.
Iran's long-term strategic planning (20+ years) and deep understanding of US/Israeli military doctrine allow it to effectively deceive and exhaust enemy resources through decoys, signal manipulation, and pre-emptive hardening of targets.
This indicates that current US/Israeli bombing campaigns are likely ineffective against Iran's core military capabilities, primarily hitting empty buildings and expending valuable munitions on 'ghosts.'
Military planners need to fundamentally rethink intelligence gathering and targeting strategies against sophisticated, resilient adversaries, moving beyond traditional kinetic strikes to more nuanced, intelligence-driven operations that account for advanced deception tactics.
Key Concepts
Strategic Initiative
The concept that one party in a conflict dictates the terms, timing, and location of engagements, forcing the opponent to react rather than act proactively. Ritter argues Iran currently holds this in the Middle East.
Colonial Legacy and Neocolonialism
The idea that current political structures and alliances in the Middle East, particularly the Gulf Arab monarchies, are direct or indirect continuations of British colonial influence, now perpetuated by the United States to serve its and Israel's interests.
Bluster vs. Reality
The distinction between public declarations of strength and actual military or strategic capability. Ritter frequently highlights US and Israeli 'bluster' as a cover for underlying weaknesses and strategic failures.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate the true military capabilities and readiness of the United States for large-scale conventional warfare, especially in complex, prepared theaters like Iran.
- Scrutinize diplomatic initiatives like the Abraham Accords for underlying geopolitical objectives beyond stated economic or peace-building goals, considering potential subordination of allies.
- Analyze the long-term strategic planning and deception tactics employed by adversaries like Iran to understand how they negate conventional military advantages and exhaust resources.
- Consider the implications of shifting US military assets (e.g., THAAD from South Korea) on global alliance structures and the perceived reliability of US security commitments to other regions.
- Monitor internal political dynamics and public sentiment in Gulf Arab states, as growing dissatisfaction with perceived monarchical corruption and complicity with external powers could lead to significant instability.
Notable Moments
Scott Ritter's blunt assessment of Pete Hegseth's military qualifications and competence, calling him a 'walking talking joke of a human being' and an 'amateur.'
This moment highlights Ritter's highly critical and personal attack on a prominent figure, underscoring his deep skepticism about the competence of current US military leadership and political appointees.
Ritter's call for the populations of Gulf Arab monarchies to 'rise up and remove their corrupt regimes from power,' explicitly encouraging revolution.
This is a radical and provocative statement, advocating for internal regime change in US-allied states, reflecting a complete rejection of the current regional order and its leadership.
Ritter's detailed breakdown of the logistical impossibility of a US ground invasion of Iran, contrasting current capabilities with Cold War readiness.
This provides a concrete, military-technical argument against a widely discussed hypothetical, challenging the feasibility of a core US military option and exposing significant operational limitations.
Quotes
"If you have to be reminding everybody about how big, bad, and important we are, maybe we're not as big and bad and as important as we as we think we are."
"I think the strategy of Iran is to permanently evict the United States from the Middle East."
"We now know that the United States will sell anybody out for Israel."
"The most dangerous threat to peace and security in the world today collectively is the state of Israel."
"Israel is a parasite on the global community. It exists to suck the lifeblood out of the world solely for its benefit."
"Imirati citizens are fat, pale, soft hands, soft skinned um affeminite because they don't know how to fight because they don't want to fight."
"We're fighting the wrong Arabs. We should be fighting the Kuwaitis. We fighting the the Saudis."
"We don't respect anything. uh we treat the Iranians as if they're a bunch of uh camel jockey, ragghheads, sand [__] whatever other derogatory term we could use and have used in the past to describe the people of the Middle East instead of one of the most cultured uh refined, dignified people the world has ever seen."
"Israel is a sick genocidal nation, and they only understand how to commit genocide. And so that's what they're doing right now with the nation of Iran."
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