War, High Prices… And Regret (w/ Amanda Carpenter) | Bulwark Podcast
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Enthusiasm for Trump is waning in West Virginia, evidenced by fewer MAGA flags and a lack of support for the war in Iran.
- ❖Trump's social media posts depicting himself as Jesus or God's chosen one are seen as blasphemous by many religious supporters.
- ❖Pete Hegseth, Secretary of War, used a fake Bible verse from Pulp Fiction during a Pentagon prayer service, comparing Trump critics to Pharisees.
- ❖The Pope implicitly criticized Trump's manipulation of religion for political gain, a critique Trump's allies seem to recognize.
- ❖The current administration's actions in Iran (total war, naval blockade, economic bombing) are a direct violation of 'just war theory'.
- ❖An oil blockade against Iran would harm the U.S. economy more than Iran's due to basic supply and demand principles.
- ❖Trump's election interference playbook involves 'deceive, disrupt, deny' tactics, targeting mail-in ballots and leveraging judicial deference.
- ❖Democrats need granular, specific messaging on corruption, focusing on how official actions lead to personal profit (e.g., market manipulation, pardon abuse).
- ❖Trump's practice of branding public property and currency with his name is framed as a form of corruption and an 'unamerican' authoritarian tactic.
Insights
1The 'Vibe Shift' in Red America
Amanda Carpenter observes a tangible shift in sentiment in West Virginia: trucks with Trump flags are less common, and there's no enthusiastic support for the war in Iran or $4 gas. This suggests a growing dissatisfaction among typical MAGA voters, not necessarily turning them into Democrats, but indicating a significant decline in their happiness with current events.
Carpenter states, 'the trucks flying Trump MAGA flags off the back of them have stopped. I haven't seen any of those in a while, and I do have yet to meet an enthusiastic supporter of the war in Iran.'
2Trump's Blasphemous Religious Imagery Alienates Base
Trump's social media posts depicting himself as Jesus or God's chosen one are not only seen as erratic but are actively alienating his evangelical base. This imagery, including a meme of Jesus hugging Trump with text about God playing his 'trump card' against 'satanic demonic child sacrificing monsters,' is perceived as blasphemous by many people of faith, who are more angered by it than 'radical leftists.'
Carpenter notes, 'if you are a person of faith that is going to hit you the wrong way. That is blasphemous on its face.' Miller adds, 'this is him saying I God chose me which is not really that far from being Jesus like that I'm God's chosen one.'
3Secretary of War Quotes Pulp Fiction as Scripture
Pete Hegseth, serving as Secretary of War, delivered a prayer at a Pentagon service that included a fake Bible verse from Quentin Tarantino's 'Pulp Fiction' (Ezekiel 25:17). He compared Trump critics to Pharisees trying to condemn Jesus, framing military personnel as apostles. This act is seen as sacrilegious and indicative of a profound lack of seriousness and understanding of religious texts.
Miller details how Hegseth 'was doing a prayer and as you mentioned viewers of fact people who have seen Pulp Fiction might recognize this Bible verse... Cesar which I think is meant to reflect Ezekiel '.
4Economic Self-Sabotage via Iran Oil Blockade
The proposed strategy of imposing a 'chokehold' on Iranian oil supply to hurt their economy would be economically self-destructive for the U.S. Reducing Iranian oil supply would decrease global supply, causing prices to rise universally. This would lead to higher gas prices for American consumers, making the U.S. population cry uncle before the autocratic Iranian regime.
Miller explains, 'If you put a choke hold on the supply of Iranian oil to hurt their economy, what happens? ...the Chinese will pay more. And when the Chinese pay more, guess who else pays more? people with the Trump flag in West Virginia also pay more.'
5Trump's Election Interference Playbook: Deceive, Disrupt, Deny
Trump's strategy to interfere with elections centers on a 'deceive, disrupt, deny' framework. This involves issuing executive orders to outlaw mail-in ballots, manufacturing 'evidence' based on debunked lies to get search warrants (like the attempted raid in Fulton County), and staffing federal agencies with loyalists to carry out these mechanics. The goal is to interfere with the voting process, challenge ballots, and ultimately deny unfavorable results.
Carpenter highlights 'the executive order that he issued essentially trying to outlaw mail-in ballots' and 'the raid that was attempted in Fulton County' as key examples. She outlines the 'deceive, disrupt, deny' framework.
6Trump's Self-Branding on Public Property as Corruption
Trump's practice of affixing his name to public property, government initiatives, and even currency (e.g., national park passes, the 'America 250' celebration, future money) is viewed as a form of open corruption and an 'unamerican' authoritarian tactic. This isn't just vanity; it's seizing public assets for personal branding and economic benefit, making his image inescapable and forcing a 'transaction with Trump' on citizens.
Miller states, 'he is seizing public property as personal branding opportunities. The American people did not ask for Donald Trump to put his name on the Institute of Peace. They did not ask to put his name on the Kennedy Center. He Do you realize that he's going to be putting his name on our money?'
Bottom Line
Despite Trump's efforts to staff federal agencies with loyalists, many of his appointees are ineffective, leading to failures in carrying out his political agenda.
The incompetence of some loyalists acts as an unexpected guardrail, preventing the full execution of potentially damaging directives, such as prosecuting political opponents.
This suggests that focusing on the competence and effectiveness of appointees, rather than just their loyalty, could be a subtle but impactful strategy for opposition groups.
The Senate, rather than the House, is the more critical battleground for election integrity, particularly in closely contested red states.
Stealing an election in a single state requires fewer accomplices than a national election, making states with unified Republican control highly vulnerable if a Senate race is tight. This localized vulnerability could determine the balance of power and Trump's ability to pass confirmations.
Advocacy and oversight efforts should intensely focus on election processes in specific red states with competitive Senate races, rather than solely on national or broad federal issues, to prevent localized manipulation.
Key Concepts
Deceive, Disrupt, Deny Framework
This framework describes the three-pronged strategy for election interference: first, deceiving voters about the process (especially mail-in ballots) to sow distrust; second, disrupting the process through rule changes or challenges; and third, denying results that are unfavorable. This model helps to anticipate and understand tactics aimed at undermining election integrity.
Just War Theory
A set of criteria used to determine if a war is ethically justifiable. The hosts argue that the current administration's actions in Iran violate fundamental tenets, such as exhausting all diplomatic options before resorting to military force, highlighting a perceived lack of rationale and objectives for the conflict.
Lessons
- Monitor specific election interference tactics, particularly those targeting mail-in ballots and judicial challenges, using the 'deceive, disrupt, deny' framework.
- Advocate for political parties to develop granular, episode-specific anti-corruption messaging that clearly connects official actions to personal profit and abuses of power.
- Challenge and highlight instances of public property being used for personal branding by political figures, framing it as an 'unamerican' form of corruption.
Trump's Election Interference Playbook: Deceive, Disrupt, Deny
**Deceive Voters:** Spread misinformation about the voting process, especially mail-in ballots, to create a perception of fraud and problems within the system.
**Disrupt Process:** Attempt to change voting rules (e.g., outlaw mail-in ballots via executive order) or use manufactured 'evidence' to obtain warrants that interfere with ballot handling (e.g., attempted raid in Fulton County).
**Deny Results:** Leverage the manufactured distrust and disruptions to challenge election outcomes and deny results that are not favorable, particularly in close races or specific localities.
Notable Moments
RFK Jr.'s Roadkill Raccoon Penis Encounter
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., then Secretary of Health and Human Services, recounted pulling over on a highway with his family to cut the penis off a roadkill raccoon. This bizarre and unsanitary act raises questions about his judgment and personal hygiene, especially given his role in public health, and highlights a pattern of unusual interactions with dead animals.
Quotes
"The trucks flying Trump MAGA flags off the back of them have stopped. I haven't seen any of those in a while, and I do have yet to meet an enthusiastic supporter of the war in Iran."
"If you are a person of faith that is going to hit you the wrong way. That is blasphemous on its face."
"Woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic, and political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth."
"If you do a chokehold on Iran to prevent their supply of oil from coming out, yeah, it's going to hurt their economy, but it's going to make ours even worse."
"He is seizing public property as personal branding opportunities. The American people did not ask for Donald Trump to put his name on the Institute of Peace."
"I was standing in front of my parked car on I 684 cutting the penis out of a roadkilled raccoon, thinking about how weird some of my family members have turned out to be. My kids waited patiently in the car."
Q&A
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