Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: Second F-35 Down - Iran War Spirals Into DEVASTATING New Phase
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Donald Trump's claims of Iranian military obliteration are described as 'demented confabulation' by Larry Johnson, contradicted by an F-35 being hit by Iranian air defense.
- ❖The US media is criticized for failing to challenge glaring contradictions and false narratives from the administration.
- ❖A US ground invasion of Kharg Island is deemed militarily impossible due to insufficient Marine forces, logistical challenges, and Iran's robust coastal defenses.
- ❖Iran's strategy involves tit-for-tat responses to attacks on its oil infrastructure, leading to significant global energy price increases.
- ❖The US defense industrial base is inefficient, profit-driven, and hampered by supply chain issues (e.g., rare earth minerals from China), making rapid production increases difficult.
- ❖The conflict is seen as a battle for global financial primacy, with Iran, Russia, and China actively working to undermine the dollar's reserve currency status.
- ❖The alleged assassination of Charlie Kirk, a vocal opponent of the Iran war, raises questions about external influence and suppressed investigations.
Insights
1Trump's Delusional War Claims and Media Failure
Larry Johnson asserts that Donald Trump's statements regarding the obliteration of Iran's military and air force are 'demented confabulation'—objectively false claims that he believes are true, even when contradicted by immediate events like an F-35 being hit. Colonel Wilkerson and Johnson criticize the press for failing to challenge these glaring inconsistencies, suggesting journalists fear being 'kicked out of the pool'.
Trump's claims () followed by CNN report of an F-35 hit (). Larry Johnson's assessment (). Colonel Wilkerson's critique of journalists ().
2Strategic Importance and Vulnerability of Kharg Island
Scott Bessent's claims about Kharg Island's destruction are dismissed as 'total lies'. Colonel Wilkerson explains Kharg Island's critical role as Iran's primary oil export terminal, capable of fueling 10 supertankers simultaneously. Its destruction would severely disrupt global oil markets, significantly increasing oil prices and benefiting Russia.
Scott Bessent's claims (). Colonel Wilkerson's counter-argument and description of Kharg Island (, , ).
3Unfeasible Ground Invasion of Iran
Larry Johnson and Colonel Wilkerson detail the impossibility of a US ground invasion of Iran, specifically targeting Kharg Island or the Strait of Hormuz coastline. A Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) of 2,200 Marines is insufficient for a coastline hundreds of miles long, and Ospreys are vulnerable. They highlight Iran's extensive defensive capabilities, including missiles, drones, and submarines, making any amphibious assault suicidal for US forces.
Larry Johnson's analysis of MEU capacity and vulnerability (). Colonel Wilkerson's knowledge of the terrain (, ).
4US Complicity in Israeli Strikes and Escalation
Despite Trump's public denials, US commanders were aware of Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities. Larry Johnson explains that Trump had already signed executive orders granting authority, and the US Combined Air Operations Center (CAOC) monitors all aircraft. Iran's consistent tit-for-tat response strategy means attacks on its infrastructure lead directly to retaliatory strikes on Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Haifa, impacting global energy supply.
Larry Johnson's explanation of US awareness (). Iran's tit-for-tat response ().
5Inefficiency and Corruption in US Defense Spending
Colonel Wilkerson argues that the proposed $200 billion supplemental defense budget is largely wasteful. He states the Pentagon cannot fruitfully spend its current budget, leading to money lost to 'graft and stealing' due to rapid distribution and dismantled checks and balances. This includes spending on ineffective systems and a lack of skilled workforce for critical defense production.
Pete Hoekstra's budget claims (). Colonel Wilkerson's critique of Pentagon spending ().
6China's Leverage Over US Defense Production
Trump's trade strategy has led China to cut off the supply of rare earth minerals and gallium, essential components for many US weapon systems and radars (e.g., F-35 nose cones). This severely hampers the US defense industry's ability to increase production, regardless of funding, highlighting a critical supply chain vulnerability.
Larry Johnson's explanation of China's mineral cutoff ().
7Profit-Driven US Defense vs. State-Controlled Competitors
The US defense industry, driven by profit and shareholders, is less efficient than state-controlled Russian and Chinese defense industries. Larry Johnson points out that Lockheed Martin found it more profitable to build PAC-3 missiles by hand than by robot. This profit motive undermines the US's ability to meet battlefield requirements, making its defense budget (twice that of Russia and China combined) less effective.
Larry Johnson's comparison of defense industries ().
8The Alleged Assassination of Charlie Kirk
Joe Kent, a former administration official, claims the investigation into Charlie Kirk's public assassination was stopped, despite evidence of 'linkage' and pressure from pro-Israel donors. Larry Johnson suggests Israel's involvement, citing circumstantial evidence and the sophisticated nature of the attack, which he believes was beyond the capabilities of a 'lone gunman'.
Joe Kent's account of the stopped investigation and Kirk's anti-war stance (). Larry Johnson's assessment of Israeli involvement and operational details ().
Bottom Line
The ongoing conflict is fundamentally a battle for global financial primacy, with 'powers behind the throne' pushing to stop China and preserve the dollar's role, while BRICS nations actively work towards de-dollarization.
The US is risking global conflict and economic instability to maintain its financial hegemony, potentially accelerating the very shift it seeks to prevent.
Nations and businesses should diversify their financial holdings and trade currencies to mitigate risks associated with the dollar's potential decline and increased geopolitical volatility.
Russia is emerging as the 'big winner' from the West's 'misadventure' in the Middle East, profiting immensely from increased oil, gas, and fertilizer prices due to supply disruptions.
Western sanctions and military actions are inadvertently strengthening Russia's economic and geopolitical position, undermining their stated objectives.
Governments and industries should re-evaluate the effectiveness of sanctions and military interventions, considering their unintended consequences and the potential for strengthening adversaries.
The US military is unprepared for a potential global conflict, lacking functioning minesweepers, a skilled workforce for defense production, and facing obsolescence in its industrial infrastructure.
Despite massive spending, the US military's actual combat readiness and industrial capacity are severely compromised, making it vulnerable in a multi-front or prolonged global engagement.
Strategic investment in domestic supply chains, workforce development, and modernizing defense production (e.g., automated factories, non-metallic hulls for minesweepers) is critical for national security, rather than merely increasing budget allocations.
Lessons
- Challenge official narratives and seek diverse sources of information, especially when leaders make contradictory or unsubstantiated claims about military successes or economic impacts.
- Recognize the potential for global economic shifts driven by geopolitical conflicts, including de-dollarization and commodity price volatility, and plan accordingly for financial resilience.
- Advocate for greater accountability and transparency in defense spending, questioning large budget increases that may not translate to effective military capabilities or national security.
Quotes
"Donald Trump is crazy. I mean, he's demented. This you know, what what and I don't say that as an insulting term. I mean that as a medical condition."
"If they're obliterated, if they're 100% defeated, why then just go in and take over? It's it's done. It's over. So, his brain is not even able to reconcile such glaring contradictions."
"You take that full facility out Putin will go from 150 million a day to 300 million a day and the price of oil will go up significantly, too, and we know that. So Bessent's lying through his teeth."
"I think people are making military decisions who don't understand a damn thing about military capabilities, logistics, and and operations."
"US commanders absolutely knew where the where the Iranians where the Israelis were headed. And Iran had made it very clear, 'If you hit us here, we're going to hit you there.' That will be tit-for-tat. And exactly what happened."
"This is a complete and abject failure of what we call our mainstream media."
"I don't know if we can point to another period in history where the leader of a nation has been so detached from reality and so I guess, you know, Adolf Hitler. I mean, Hitler is actually the last one to be this this out of touch with what was actually happening on the ground militarily."
"The for-profit system actually ends up undermining our ability to defend ourselves. And the grifters in the system are part and parcel of it."
"When one of President Trump's closest advisers who is vocally advocating for us to not go to war with Iran and for us to rethink at least our relationship with the Israelis, um and then he suddenly publicly assassinated and we're not allowed to ask any questions about that. It's a data point."
"The first American politician that Israel participated in the assassination of was John F. Kennedy."
Q&A
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