Trump’s New Voters Are Already Bailing

A New York Times/Siena poll indicates that the 'second Trump coalition' that emerged in 2024, which included significant gains among young, black, and Hispanic men, has largely disintegrated. Trump's approval rating stands at 40% with 57% disapproval, and his demographic support has 'snapped back' to levels seen before his defeat in 2020.

Trump's approval rating is at 40%, disapproved, 57%. The major demographic shifts of the last election have snapped back. Trump's approval rating by demographic group looks almost exactly as it did in the run-up to his defeat in 2020.

Trump has lost the support he gained among non-white and young voters in 2024, with disapproval rates now even higher than in 2020. For non-white voters, his net support moved from around minus 25% in 2024 to almost minus 50%. Similarly, young voters (18-29) who were nearly even in 2024 now show disapproval close to minus 50%.

In 2024, he gained to where he was minus only, call it around 25. Now, in 2026, he's almost minus 50. So, not only has he lost the support he gained, but even additional people have jumped off the train. Total collapse among young voters 18 to 29 as well as non-white voters.

The primary reason for voters abandoning Trump is the economy, particularly concerns about the cost of living. While other issues like immigration and foreign affairs play a role, 44% of 'switcher' voters (those who supported Trump in 2024 but no longer do) specifically cite economic issues as the biggest problem facing the country.

Con finds is that like broadly speaking, the evidence is that it's the economy that's driving voters away from Trump... including just 34% approve his handling of the cost of living compared with 64% who disapprove. Among the voters who flipped, 44% of them cite economic issues.

The poll reveals a striking emotional landscape: only a small fraction of Trump supporters (9%) express 'enthusiasm or pride,' with 'satisfaction' being the most common positive emotion (19%). In contrast, a significant portion of the overall electorate (29%) feels 'disgust or derision,' and 20% feel 'hostility or outrage' towards Trump's presidency. This suggests a more unified and intense negative emotional response than positive one.

Among Trump's supporters, the emotion that best described how they felt was satisfaction... enthusiasm or pride only had 9%. Hope only had 3%... The biggest number, hostility outrage, 20%. You add in disgust and derision, 29%. That's 29% who feel disgusted or outraged by Trump versus only 9% who feel enthusiastic or proud.