Trump’s Crooked Fed Chair Nominee; GOP Plotting Next Supreme Court Pick? w/ Elie Mystal | MR Live
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Justice Samuel Alito (76) is expected to retire before the 2026 midterms to allow a Republican president to appoint his successor, avoiding a potential Democratic Senate.
- ❖Alito's new book release in October 2026, coinciding with the Supreme Court term start, suggests he won't be actively working.
- ❖Republican senators are publicly signaling readiness to confirm a nominee quickly, pressuring Alito to act.
- ❖Justice Clarence Thomas is unlikely to retire, aiming to become the longest-serving Supreme Court Justice by 2028.
- ❖Donald Trump's judicial selection criteria have shifted from strict Federalist Society doctrine to personal loyalty and aesthetic appeal ('central casting').
- ❖Mike Davis, a former Neil Gorsuch clerk and MAGA loyalist, is emerging as a key influencer for Trump's judicial picks, replacing Leonard Leo.
- ❖Leaked memos reveal Chief Justice John Roberts initiated the 'shadow docket' and 'major questions doctrine' in 2016 primarily due to political and economic concerns over the Clean Power Plan, not legal principles.
- ❖Democrats need to proactively educate their caucus and the public about potential extreme judicial nominees to build public opposition.
Insights
1Justice Alito's Strategic Retirement Timeline
Justice Samuel Alito, at 76, is exhibiting strong political signals that he intends to retire before the 2026 midterms. This timing is strategic to ensure a Republican president can appoint his successor, especially if Democrats gain control of the Senate. His new book, scheduled for release on October 3, 2026 (right after the Supreme Court term begins), further suggests he won't be actively serving.
Alito's age, known dislike for Washington D.C., desire to avoid a 'Ruth Bader Ginsburg mistake,' and the October 2026 book release date. Public statements from Republican senators like John Thune and Chuck Grassley signaling readiness to confirm a nominee quickly.
2Clarence Thomas's Record-Breaking Ambition
In contrast to Alito, Justice Clarence Thomas is highly unlikely to retire voluntarily. Mystal believes Thomas is driven by a desire to become the longest-serving Supreme Court Justice ever, a milestone he could achieve by 2028. Thomas's personality suggests he is focused on his own legacy and present circumstances rather than the political implications of his replacement.
Thomas's long tenure, perceived focus on personal legacy, and a statement (likely apocryphal) about not counting his years, which Mystal interprets as a sign he is counting them closely for the record.
3Trump's Evolving Judicial Selection Criteria
Donald Trump's approach to judicial appointments has shifted from relying solely on the Federalist Society's vetted list to prioritizing personal loyalty and even physical appearance. The Federalist Society, led by Leonard Leo, has lost some influence after some Trump-appointed judges ruled against him. New figures like Mike Davis, a MAGA-aligned former Gorsuch clerk, are gaining prominence in advising Trump on judicial picks, emphasizing unwavering support for the president.
Trump's past comments about judges disagreeing with him, his 'central casting' remark about Fed nominee Kevin Warsh, and the rise of Mike Davis as an influential figure.
4Political Origins of the Shadow Docket
Leaked memos from 2016 reveal that Chief Justice John Roberts's decision to issue an emergency stay on the Obama administration's Clean Power Plan, which effectively birthed the Supreme Court's 'shadow docket' and the 'major questions doctrine,' was driven by political and economic concerns rather than legal reasoning. Roberts was reportedly worried about his 'rich buddies' losing money, despite the plan's eventual likely demise under a new administration.
New York Times leak of Roberts's memos from 2016 concerning the Clean Power Plan, which showed a lack of legal argument and a focus on economic impact.
Bottom Line
Trump's judicial nominees will increasingly be selected based on their willingness to 'lick Trump's boots' and fit a specific aesthetic, rather than purely conservative legal philosophy.
This shift could lead to a judiciary less bound by established legal doctrines and more by political expediency and personal fealty to a single leader, potentially eroding the rule of law.
Opponents can expose the superficial and politically motivated nature of these appointments, highlighting the lack of judicial independence and intellectual rigor.
The public's awareness of judicial nominees is low, making it difficult to rally opposition against potentially extreme candidates who are not 'famous' like Ted Cruz.
This lack of public education allows problematic nominees to pass through the Senate with minimal scrutiny, solidifying partisan control over the judiciary.
Progressive organizations and media must proactively educate the public on the backgrounds and judicial philosophies of potential nominees, particularly those from lower circuit courts, to build public outrage and pressure senators.
Lessons
- Educate yourself and your community on the judicial records and potential conflicts of interest of likely Supreme Court nominees, especially those from lower circuit courts.
- Contact your senators and express concerns about potential Supreme Court nominees who prioritize political loyalty or personal gain over judicial independence and ethical conduct.
- Support organizations like Demand Justice that are actively tracking potential judicial appointments and advocating for a fair and independent judiciary.
Notable Moments
Discussion of Justice Alito's wife's past comments about 'statute of limitations' and planning to 'talk' after retirement, reinforcing the idea of a planned exit.
This personal anecdote from Alito's wife adds a layer of circumstantial evidence to the theory of a politically timed retirement, suggesting long-term planning within the family.
The hosts and guest discuss Jennifer Mascot's 'makeover' and how Trump's 'central casting' criteria might apply to female judicial nominees, highlighting the superficiality of his selection process.
This moment underscores the alarming degree to which aesthetic and personal appeal, rather than purely legal qualifications, might influence critical judicial appointments under Trump.
Quotes
"Donald Trump has made clear that he does not want an independent Fed. In fact, he has said, and I quote, 'Anybody that disagrees with me will never be Fed chairman.' And he's made clear that you are his sock puppet, saying last week that interest rates will drop. Quote, 'When Kevin gets in, yeah, I think they do. Not when economic conditions change, we'll get lower rates. Not when the economy needs it.' Nope. He said, 'When my guy Kevin Walsh is in there, we'll get the interest rates that I, Donald Trump, wants.'"
"I personally think Clarence Thomas is leaving a coffin. I don't think he will ever willingly retire from that job."
"Clarence Thomas is only going to be in the African-American Museum of of History in the sometimes it be your own people section... but longest serving Supreme Court justice. That is a title that you can never take away from him and I think he wants it."
"What those leaks show is that the very birth of the shadow docket that we are now all living with starts because John Roberts had a political problem with the Barack Obama policy. If you look at those memos that Roberts leaked out that have been leaked out from Roberts's uh pen, there's no law in there at all. It's all politics. It's all economics."
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