John Helmer: Shadow Fleet Showdown: U.S. Seizes Russian Tankers as Global Power Deals Unravel
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The 'Anchorage formula,' a supposed US-Russia agreement on de-escalation, is a point of intense internal dispute within the Kremlin, with Foreign Minister Lavrov publicly contradicting President Putin's spokesman, Peskov.
- ❖The US is conducting a global 'war at sea' against Russian oil trade, seizing tankers and expanding its naval presence in key maritime chokepoints, which Russia's Lavrov labels as 'piracy.'
- ❖This aggressive US strategy is forcing Russia to consider deploying its navy to protect its flagged vessels, raising the risk of direct military clashes with US forces far from Russian shores.
- ❖Targeted nations like China, India, and Iran are grappling with internal factions: one advocating for deals with the US to relieve pressure, and another pushing for collective resistance and naval cooperation.
Insights
1The Disputed 'Anchorage Formula' and Kremlin Factionalism
The 'Anchorage formula' refers to a supposed agreement between President Trump and President Putin during their Anchorage summit for de-escalation and economic normalization. However, this formula is a source of deep division within the Kremlin. A 'business faction,' including Kirill Dmitriev (Russian Direct Investment Fund) and Elvira Nabiullina (Central Bank Governor), believes a deal was made with Trump's emissaries (Witkov, Kushner) to end the war in Ukraine, reopen economic relations, and even privatize frozen central bank reserves into a US-Russian fund. Conversely, the 'security faction,' including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the General Staff, and intelligence services, views US actions as continued escalation, believing the US seeks a tactical withdrawal from Ukraine only to reinforce future harassment and maintain economic domination, rendering any 'Anchorage formula' agreement non-existent.
Lavrov publicly declared on February 9th that the 'Anchorage formula' no longer exists due to new sanctions and a 'war against tankers,' while Peskov, speaking for Putin, insisted the 'spirit of Anchorage' and its understandings remain fundamental. Helmer's Russian sources confirm the 'business faction's' belief in a deal with Witkov/Kushner, including plans to privatize $200 billion in central bank reserves.
2US Global Maritime Interdiction Strategy and 'Piracy'
The United States has significantly escalated its 'war at sea' against Russia, actively attacking major sea routes and seizing Russian-linked oil tankers globally. This strategy aims to enforce sanctions, disrupt Russia's ability to trade its oil, and achieve economic domination by controlling global energy resource routes. Lavrov explicitly called these actions 'piracy' and a violation of UN conventions on the law of the sea. The US has seized vessels like the 'Marinara' off Scotland and the 'Achila 2' in the Indian Ocean, demonstrating a global operational reach supported by its naval bases.
Lavrov's statement on February 9th explicitly mentions 'a war against tankers in the open sea is being waged in violation of the UN convention on the law of sea.' Helmer details US actions in the Baltic, Central Atlantic, Danish Straits, Mediterranean (off Crete), and the Indian Ocean, including the seizure of the 'Marinara' and 'Achila 2.'
3Russia's Dilemma: Defend Trade or Avoid Direct Clash?
The escalating US maritime interdictions are forcing an urgent debate within Russia about how to defend its trade. While the 'business faction' prioritizes avoiding conflict to preserve potential economic deals, the 'security faction' and military figures like Admiral Alexander Morsev advocate for active naval protection of Russian-flagged vessels. Deploying the Russian Navy to convoy tankers in distant waters would entail significant military and technical challenges, requiring shore alliances with countries like India and China, and carries the high risk of direct military confrontation with the United States.
Admiral Morsev published a piece in 'Military Thought' arguing for Russian naval protection of trade routes (). Lavrov's declaration of the 'Anchorage formula' being dead implies a need for defense (). Helmer notes the Russian Navy's current inability to effectively protect vessels far from shore, citing the Marinara incident ().
4Global Responses to US Pressure: Division and Potential Cooperation
The aggressive US strategy is creating internal divisions and strategic dilemmas in other targeted nations, including China, India, and Iran. Each country faces factions debating whether to make deals with the US to alleviate pressure ('pro-Americans') or to resist, fearing further escalation ('anti-Americans'). While the US aims to split these countries, the necessity of protecting vital seaborn trade routes (especially oil) could compel them towards unprecedented naval cooperation and shore alliances. However, specific points of disagreement, particularly between Russia and China regarding coordinated naval defense, remain undisclosed.
Helmer notes 'significant points of difference' surfaced by Yuri Ushakov after Putin's call with Xi Jinping (). He discusses India's agreements for coordinated deployments with Russia () and the need for cooperation between Russia, India, and China to protect trade routes (). The host and guest discuss the internal Iranian debate between diplomacy and preparing for war ().
Bottom Line
The US strategy involves a 'tactical withdrawal' from the Ukrainian battlefield, where it is losing, while simultaneously escalating economic warfare at sea to conserve forces and maintain pressure on Russia and its partners.
This suggests a sophisticated, multi-front US approach: conceding ground where militarily disadvantaged (land war in Ukraine) while aggressively asserting dominance in other domains (maritime economic warfare) to achieve broader strategic objectives.
Nations targeted by US sanctions could exploit this tactical withdrawal by focusing on consolidating battlefield gains while simultaneously developing robust, coordinated maritime defense capabilities to counter the naval escalation.
A proposed deal between Russia's 'business faction' and Trump's emissaries involved privatizing $200-300 billion of frozen Russian central bank reserves into a US-Russian fund overseen by Kushner, Witkov, and Dmitriev.
This reveals an unconventional and potentially corrupt mechanism for 'solving' geopolitical conflicts, where state assets are privatized for the benefit of specific individuals and factions, rather than through traditional diplomatic or state-to-state agreements.
Analysts should scrutinize 'peace deals' or 'economic normalization' proposals involving the Trump administration for similar 'privatization' schemes, as they may indicate a transactional approach to foreign policy driven by personal gain rather than national interest.
Key Concepts
Factional Politics
Describes how internal political groups within a state (e.g., Russia's 'business' vs. 'security' factions) hold divergent views and compete for influence over foreign policy, especially during crises.
Brinkmanship
A strategy where one or both parties push dangerous events to the 'brink' of disaster (e.g., military confrontation) in order to achieve the most advantageous outcome, as seen in US naval actions and Iran's responses.
Economic Warfare
The use of economic tools, such as sanctions, trade restrictions, and maritime interdictions, to weaken an adversary's economy and achieve geopolitical objectives, as exemplified by US actions against Russia's oil trade.
Lessons
- Monitor the rhetoric and actions of both 'business' and 'security' factions within the Russian government to predict shifts in Russia's response to US sanctions and maritime interdictions.
- Analyze the specific trade routes and chokepoints where US naval interdictions are occurring to identify vulnerabilities and potential flashpoints for escalation.
- Assess the feasibility and political will for coordinated naval protection and shore alliances among nations like Russia, China, India, and Iran, as this could significantly alter global maritime security dynamics.
Strategy for Nations Facing US Maritime Interdiction
**Identify and Russian-Flag Vessels**: Rapidly reflag all critical trade vessels (especially oil tankers) under the national flag to establish clear legal grounds for naval protection.
**Develop Naval Convoy Capabilities**: Invest in and deploy naval escorts and air cover for national-flagged trade convoys, particularly in high-risk international waters.
**Forge Shore Alliances**: Establish formal agreements for mutual port access, resupply, and military cooperation with allied nations along critical trade routes (e.g., India for Indian Ocean, China for Pacific) to project naval power effectively.
**Conduct Deterrent Testing**: Implement controlled 'testing' operations (e.g., surveillance drones, speedboats) to gauge US reaction to naval presence and assert freedom of navigation, similar to IRGC tactics in the Gulf of Hormuz.
Notable Moments
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov publicly declared that the 'Anchorage formula' no longer exists due to escalating US sanctions and 'war against tankers,' directly contradicting President Putin's spokesman, Peskov.
This public disagreement between high-ranking Russian officials signifies a deep internal Kremlin struggle over foreign policy and the interpretation of US intentions, highlighting the severity of the US's economic pressure.
The guest details how Trump abruptly walked away from the Anchorage summit halfway through, cutting short planned discussions and a press conference.
This behavior set a precedent for the Russian side's perception of Trump's attention span and commitment to agreements, contributing to the current dispute over the 'Anchorage formula's' validity.
Quotes
"The reality is quite the opposite, new sanctions are imposed, a war against tankers in the open sea is being waged in violation of the UN convention on the law of sea. They are trying to ban India and our other partners from buying cheap, affordable Russian energy. This means the Americans have set themselves the task of achieving economic domination."
"The spirit of Anchorage... reflects a set of mutual understandings between Russia and the United States that are capable of bringing about a breakthrough including in the settlement between Moscow and Kiev. There is a whole range of understandings that were reached in Anchorage which were already discussed even before Anchorage during Mr. Witkoff's visit here... These understandings achieved in Anchorage are fundamental and it's these understandings that can move the settlement process forward and allow for a breakthrough."
"If we act weak and defenseless now, they will escalate."
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