Jeremy Scahill: Despite Ongoing Talks, Trump Admin Is "Obsessed" with Destroying Iran
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖President Trump allegedly seeks to be known for ending Iran's Islamic Revolution, aiming to achieve this before midterm elections.
- ❖The US is using negotiations with Iran as a 'veneer' to cover preparations for potential military strikes.
- ❖US demands on Iran include dramatic reductions in ballistic missile capabilities and cessation of support for regional resistance movements.
- ❖Two potential US military scenarios for Iran are a 'Libya scenario' (air power for regime change, civil war) or a 'Venezuela scenario' (decapitate leadership, install compliant government).
- ❖Military experts reportedly observe a 'spirit of delusion' within the administration, with decisions driven by Trump's ego and political legacy.
- ❖Iran has stated it will not 'calibrate' retaliatory strikes if attacked, viewing it as an existential war.
- ❖Trump's 'Board of Peace' initiative, an alternative to the UN, proposes turning Gaza into an 'upscale seaside resort' after Palestinian surrender.
Insights
1Trump's Obsession with Ending Iran's Islamic Revolution
President Trump has reportedly expressed a desire to be known as the American president who 'forever ended the Islamic revolution in Iran,' aiming to achieve this before the midterm elections. This personal ambition is seen as a driving force behind the administration's aggressive stance.
Jeremy Scahill states, 'what I've been hearing from sources is that Donald Trump has been running around for some time saying that he wants to be known as the American president that forever ended the Islamic revolution in Iran. And he's even, I'm told by sources, been saying that he wants to complete this before the midterm elections.'
2Negotiations as Cover for Military Action
The Trump administration has used the appearance of engaging in negotiations with Iran as a 'veneer' or cover to prepare for and launch military strikes, as evidenced by past actions and current military buildups.
Scahill notes, 'Trump who ripped up the original nuclear agreement with Iran... has used the veneer of engaging in negotiations with Iran as cover to launch more strikes. That was the case last June when the United States and Israel waged a 12-day massive bombing campaign that killed more than 1,000 Iranians.'
3US Demands and Iranian Deterrence
The US has demanded that Iran dramatically reduce its ballistic missile supply and cease support for regional resistance movements. Meeting these demands would effectively eliminate Iran's deterrence capability, making it highly vulnerable to attack.
Scahill explains, 'the Iranians have been told that the issue of their ballistic missile supply and reducing it dramatically has to be on the table and also their support for regional resistance movements... If they make that kind of a deal that would eliminate large capacity of the ballistic missile system. The Iranians basically don't have any deterrence anymore.'
4Two US Scenarios for Iran: Libya or Venezuela
US military planners are reportedly considering two main scenarios for Iran: a 'Libya scenario' involving air power for regime change leading to chaos and civil war, or a 'Venezuela scenario' focused on decapitating leadership and installing a compliant lower-echelon government.
Scahill states, 'the US is looking at two possible scenarios. One would be the Libya scenario where you have US air power that is used to enact regime change and then you allow chaos and civil war to brew on the ground. Or you have something that they're comparing to a Venezuela scenario.'
5Delusion and Ego Driving Policy
Military experts within the Pentagon reportedly perceive a 'spirit of delusion' within the Trump administration, where decisions regarding Iran are driven by politics and Donald Trump's ego rather than tactical considerations.
Scahill reports, 'I've been told by military experts who spent decades working in the Pentagon that there's a spirit of delusion that has just taken hold in the administration that a lot of the decisions being made now are not tactical decisions. They have to do with politics and Donald Trump's ego.'
6Iranian Vow of Uncalibrated Retaliation
If the US launches a large-scale attack, Iran has indicated it will not 'calibrate' its strikes or engage in 'backdoor choreography,' viewing it as an existential war for the Islamic Revolution and the independence of the Iranian state. This could lead to mass casualties for American service members.
Scahill states, 'The Iranians said they're not going to calibrate anymore. They're not going to do backdoor choreography if the US attacks. They view it as an existential war for the Islamic Revolution and the existence of the independence of Iran state.' He adds, 'I was told by one well-connected Iranian that he's heard talk of wanting to kill at least 500 American service members in retaliatory strikes.'
7Trump's 'Board of Peace' and Gaza Proposals
Trump's 'Board of Peace' initiative, intended as an alternative to the UN, proposes turning Gaza into an 'upscale seaside resort' with new cities. This plan is framed as forcing Palestinians to 'fully bend the knee' to a 'colonial apartheid regime' and become 'dystopian plantation workers' for real estate projects.
Scahill describes Trump's proposals for Gaza as 'turn Gaza into an upscale seaside resort with gleaming skyscrapers and entirely new cities.' He then interprets this as Palestinians being told 'you either fully bend the knee and accept a colonial apartheid regime as your overseer that you accept a new reality as dystopian plantation workers on Jared Kushner's, you know, real estate project. Or we're going to kill you.'
Bottom Line
The 'wag the dog' scenario, where a foreign conflict is initiated to distract from domestic scandals, is a plausible element in the Trump administration's aggressive stance towards Iran, particularly concerning the Epstein files.
This suggests that geopolitical decisions might be influenced by personal political vulnerabilities, potentially leading to reckless military actions.
Analysts should scrutinize the timing of military escalations in relation to major domestic political crises or scandals.
The current administration's foreign policy reflects a 'resurrection of the Dulles' early CIA worldview, emphasizing regime change and toppling governments globally.
This indicates a return to a more interventionist and destabilizing foreign policy approach, moving away from multilateralism or even previous administrations' approaches.
Historians and political scientists could draw parallels between current US foreign policy and Cold War-era interventionism, analyzing the long-term consequences of such a mindset.
The US's aggressive actions against Iran, including pulling out of the nuclear deal, are inadvertently strengthening hardline factions within Iran who argue that ending their nuclear program was a 'grave mistake'.
This suggests that the US strategy may be counterproductive, potentially pushing Iran towards re-establishing a nuclear weapons program or adopting more extreme defensive postures.
Policymakers should consider the internal political dynamics within target countries when formulating foreign policy, as aggressive tactics can backfire by empowering hardliners.
Lessons
- Recognize that US foreign policy decisions, particularly regarding Iran, may be significantly influenced by domestic political considerations and individual egos, rather than purely strategic objectives.
- Understand the potential for a rapid and uncalibrated escalation in the Middle East, as Iran has signaled an 'existential' response to any major US military action, potentially leading to mass casualties.
- Critically evaluate 'peace initiatives' like the 'Board of Peace' for underlying motives, as they may mask plans for forced capitulation, economic exploitation, and the imposition of colonial-style governance.
Quotes
"Donald Trump has been running around for some time saying that he wants to be known as the American president that forever ended the Islamic revolution in Iran."
"Trump who ripped up the original nuclear agreement with Iran... has used the veneer of engaging in negotiations with Iran as cover to launch more strikes."
"There's a spirit of delusion that has just taken hold in the administration that a lot of the decisions being made now are not tactical decisions. They have to do with politics and Donald Trump's ego."
"The Iranians said they're not going to calibrate anymore. They're not going to do backdoor choreography if the US attacks. They view it as an existential war for the Islamic Revolution and the existence of the independence of Iran state."
"What Palestinians in Gaza are being faced with is you either fully bend the knee and accept a colonial apartheid regime as your overseer... or we're going to kill you."
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