Larry Johnson: Iran Closes Hormuz AND Ends Israel's Combat Ops - US Rushes to Talks!
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US and Iranian delegations are in Switzerland for high-level negotiations, with Pakistan and Qatar acting as key intermediaries.
- ❖The Trump administration has reportedly succeeded in getting Israel to halt attacks in Southern Lebanon, a key Iranian demand.
- ❖Iran's primary negotiation points are unfreezing assets, lifting sanctions, and Israel's withdrawal from Southern Lebanon, not nuclear talks.
- ❖The US is actively withdrawing military personnel and aircraft (F-35s, F-15s, F-16s) and naval carrier strike groups from the Middle East.
- ❖The Strait of Hormuz is practically closed for non-Iranian shipping due to high insurance costs and uncleared mines, despite theoretical 'open' status.
- ❖There is a clear division within the Trump administration between 'America First' and 'Israel First' factions.
- ❖Larry Johnson believes a severe economic downturn, including doubling gasoline prices and food shortages, is a major factor driving Trump's policy shifts.
Insights
1High-Level US-Iran Negotiations Underway in Switzerland
Two delegations, one Iranian (including the head of parliament, Central Bank, Foreign Minister, and a Security Council member) and one American (including Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and J.D. Vance), are in Switzerland for talks. Pakistan and Qatar are playing critical intermediary roles, with the possibility of direct communication between the US and Iran.
The host lists Iranian delegation members: Araghchi, Ghalebaf, Esmaeili, Baghaei. Larry Johnson confirms their presence and the involvement of Pakistan's Prime Minister and head of the army, and Qatar's foreign minister. J.D. Vance is also en route.
2US Pressures Israel into Lebanon Ceasefire and Regional Withdrawal
The Trump administration has reportedly secured a ceasefire from Israel in Southern Lebanon, a key demand from Iran. This de-escalation is seen as easing the urgency of the situation and is a significant shift in US policy towards Israel.
Larry Johnson states, 'Trump administration did get Israel to stop the attacks. They haven't withdrawn, but at least they stopped the attack in southern Lebanon.' He later adds, 'the United States is succeeded in getting Israel to stop firing at and bombing in Lebanon.'
3US Military Assets Withdrawing from the Middle East
The US military is actively withdrawing personnel, fighter jets (F-35s, F-15s, F-16s), and naval carrier strike groups from bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Cyprus, Incirlik, Jordan, and Israel. This drawdown signifies a reduction in the likelihood of direct US military conflict in the region.
Larry Johnson explains, 'the only military efforts underway by the United States right now are to withdraw personnel and planes from the region.' He details the logistical complexity of moving F-35s and the drawing down of carrier strike groups and Diego Garcia.
4Shifting US-Israel Relationship: From 'Special' to 'Normal'
The US-Israel relationship is undergoing a significant re-evaluation, moving from a 'special' or 'monogamous' partnership to a more 'normal adult' alliance, akin to relations with France or the UK. This shift is perceived as a 'betrayal' by some in Israel and within the 'Israel First' faction of the Trump administration.
J.D. Vance compared Israel to France and the UK. Larry Johnson interprets this as Israel 'woken up to find out that we're dating other people,' and that 'what Trump has said and done is a betrayal.'
5Strait of Hormuz Practically Closed for Non-Iranian Shipping
Despite theoretical declarations, the Strait of Hormuz is not practically open for international maritime traffic. London insurance companies have not certified it as safe due to uncleared mines in the Persian Gulf, severely limiting non-Iranian ship movement and impacting GCC countries' ability to export.
Larry Johnson asserts, 'it's a myth that the Strait of Hormuz was, quote, open because the London insurance companies...haven't certified that the Strait of Hormuz is safe to travel through.' He notes only Iranian ships or those taking product to China are regularly passing through.
6Economic Crisis as a Driver for US Policy Change
A looming severe economic crisis in the United States, characterized by potential doubling of gasoline prices, food shortages, and rationing, is a primary motivator for the Trump administration's shift in foreign policy, particularly regarding Iran.
Larry Johnson states Trump 'reversed course on Iran and signed on to the memorandum of understanding' because he 'was briefed that how dire the economic world economic situation's going to be shortly.' He predicts gasoline prices doubling to $7/gallon and food shortages by late July/early August.
Bottom Line
The US military's logistical planning for withdrawing aircraft and naval assets from the Middle East, including tanker positioning for refueling, indicates a firm commitment to reducing its regional footprint, not just a temporary pause.
This suggests a long-term strategic pivot away from direct military engagement in the Middle East, potentially leaving a power vacuum or forcing regional actors to develop independent defense capabilities.
Defense contractors specializing in regional security solutions for GCC countries or nations seeking to fill the void could find new markets. Countries like China and Pakistan, already acting as intermediaries, may increase their influence.
The practical closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to insurance and mine concerns, rather than direct military blockade, highlights a non-traditional vulnerability in global supply chains.
This creates significant economic pressure on global oil markets and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, forcing them to seek alternative export routes or engage more directly with Iran to ensure passage.
Investment in alternative energy sources, new shipping routes (e.g., pipelines bypassing the Strait), or innovative maritime security solutions (e.g., advanced mine-clearing tech) could become critical. Also, nations like Iran, which can navigate the 'closed' strait, gain economic leverage.
Lessons
- Monitor the outcomes of the US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland for indicators of sustained de-escalation and potential shifts in regional power balances.
- Observe the pace and scope of US military withdrawals from the Middle East to gauge the long-term commitment to a reduced presence and its implications for regional security.
- Analyze economic indicators, particularly oil prices and supply chain stability, in late July/early August, as a potential 'economic tsunami' is predicted to drive further US policy changes.
Notable Moments
Discussion of J.D. Vance's comparison of Israel to France and the UK, signifying a shift in the perceived 'special relationship' between the US and Israel.
This moment encapsulates the changing US stance towards Israel, moving from unconditional support to a more 'normal' allied relationship, which is seen as a 'betrayal' by some traditional pro-Israel factions.
Larry Johnson's explanation of the practical closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to maritime insurance issues and uncleared mines, despite official declarations of it being 'open'.
This reveals a critical, often overlooked, aspect of regional economic pressure. It highlights how non-military factors can effectively disrupt global trade and gives Iran significant leverage without direct military action.
Quotes
"Israel has woken up to find out that we're dating other people."
"The only military efforts underway by the United States right now are to withdraw personnel and planes from the region."
"It's a myth that the Strait of Hormuz was, quote, open because the London insurance companies...haven't certified that the Strait of Hormuz is safe to travel through."
"It appears that Israel is back on a leash right now."
"I think he has a shorter attention span than your baby daughter."
Q&A
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