Is a Blue Wave Coming in November? (w/ Dave Wasserman) | Mona Charen Show

Democrats are unlikely to achieve a 41-seat gain in the House in 2026, as they did in 2018. This is primarily because they are starting from a much higher floor (215 seats, needing only three for a majority) compared to 194 seats in 2018. A 20-seat gain in 2026 would be equivalent to the 41-seat gain in 2018 in terms of reaching a majority. The number of competitive seats has also decreased due to the self-sorting of the American electorate and gerrymandering.

Democrats are effectively at 215 House seats, which means they only need three to get the majority. They started out at 194 in 2018. I think 20 is even ambitious for Democrats this year because the number of competitive seats has fallen over time both due to the self-sorting of the American electorate along urban versus rural lines and the gerrymandering.

Inflation is the 'key driver' of current election outcomes, with the percentage of voters ranking the economy as their top issue tripling since eight years ago. President Trump's approval rating on the economy has consistently been three points lower than his overall approval, a reversal from his first term. Undecided voters, who skew younger and female, prioritize pocketbook issues and, despite disliking both nominees, trusted Trump more than Harris to improve the economy by a 55-26 margin.

It is the key driver of what happens in our elections these days because inflation is such an overriding concern. Gallup has found that the percentage of voters that rank the economy as their top voting issue has tripled since 8 years ago... by 55 to 26 margin, they trusted Trump more than Harris to turn the economy around.

Beyond traditional geographic self-sorting, a new phenomenon of 'state-based sorting' is accelerating. Governors and state policies are acting as 'beacons' for voters, signaling whether their politics are welcome in a particular state. For example, Governor DeSantis's policies in Florida during COVID attracted voters seeking less public health constraint, while Virginia's pro-choice stance and federal workforce support attracted left-leaning voters, causing states to move more rapidly in opposite political directions.

What's different though is state-based sorting. And now that states and their governors are signaling whether they are for or against Donald Trump, it is a beacon for voters as to whether they are welcome, whether their politics are welcome in a certain state. And that is accelerating the rate at which states are moving left or right.

Democrats are centering their 2026 message on healthcare affordability, a strategy that proved successful in 2018. Unlike 2018, when they campaigned against an *attempted* repeal of Obamacare, this time there have been 'vast and real' changes, including Medicaid overhaul and funding cuts. The White House has done little to address the 'Obamacare cliff,' leading to soaring premiums and an estimated 11 million Americans losing coverage, providing Democrats with a potent, affordability-linked campaign issue.

This time around, the change is real... Democrats are going to be running on soaring premiums. They're going to be running on the changes that the CBO estimate estimates will cost 11 million Americans who are enrolled under marketplace plans coverage in the next 10 years. These ads pretty much write themselves and it connects to affordability.

Democrats exhibit a structural advantage in midterms due to higher enthusiasm among their base, who consistently turn out for all elections (presidential, midterm, primary, special). This contrasts with President Trump's support, which largely comes from less politically engaged voters. When overall turnout is lower, as in midterms, Democrats' consistent engagement gives them an edge, allowing them to overperform expectations, as seen in 2022 and various off-year elections.

Democrats are excelling with the voters who don't just show up in presidentials but every midterm primary race for school board dog catcher special elections. And so when turnout goes down, Democrats have a structural advantage. I think this is one of the reasons why Democrats fared a little bit better than expectations in 2022.

Flipping the Senate in 2026 is a 'small chance' for Democrats due to a challenging map that insulates Republicans. There are only four truly purple states (Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia) up for election, and Democrats are defending two of them. To gain control, Democrats would need to sweep these and win at least two 'reach states' (Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, Texas) that voted for Trump by at least 11 points, a highly improbable scenario given typical overperformance margins.

There are really only four truly purple states that are up for election in the Senate this year and those are Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia. And Democrats are defending two of those seats... that forces Democrats to win at least two of their four reach states. And those reach states would be Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and Texas. All four of those states voted for Trump by at least 11 points.

The 'redistricting war' initiated by the White House, initially hoped to yield a 10-seat gain for Republicans, has not materialized as expected. While some states like Texas saw minor Republican gains, California's amended map offers more upside for Democrats. The two biggest remaining variables are Virginia and Florida. A potential Supreme Court decision striking down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) could be an 'apocalyptic development' for black representation in the South, potentially allowing states like Louisiana to dismantle Democratic districts and guaranteeing Republican House control in future cycles.

At the end of the day, this is not the windfall for Republicans they were expecting at the outset. We could have anything from a from very little net change to maybe a two or three seat gain for Republicans from new maps... striking down section two of the VRA would be an apocalyptic development for black representation in the South.

Unlike 2018, when Democrats enjoyed a significant fundraising advantage, the money picture is 'quite different' for 2026. The president's influence has led to more business community support for his campaigns, evidenced by NAGA Inc.'s $34 million cash on hand, with no comparable Democratic super PAC. At the party committee level, the DNC has only about a fifth of the RNC's cash. Democratic donors are also experiencing 'fatigue' from fighting Trump and disillusionment from past longshot Senate candidates who failed despite massive funding.

In 2018, Democrats were outraising Republican incumbents left and right... What you're seeing now... the president by virtue of his his influence over everything is receiving more support from the business community... NAGA Inc. has $34 million in in cash on hand. Whereas Democrats don't have a comparable super PAC... The DNC has about a fifth of the cash on hand as the RNC... Democratic donors are a bit fatigued from fighting Trump.