John Helmer: Russia on the Verge of Major Escalation — Europe Braces for Retaliation

John Helmer argues that Russia's primary war aims – demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine – are proving impossible to achieve. Ukraine's rapid advancements in drone warfare allow it to function as a 'firing platform without any people,' continuously attacking Russian territory. Russian military escalation has failed to deter these drone attacks or significantly reduce Ukraine's drone production capacity. Any direct Russian attack on NATO territory, even a limited nuclear one, is deemed unlikely as it would consolidate US and European mobilization against Russia, counter to Russia's strategic goal of seeking a 'pause' in the war.

Helmer states, 'The problem of Ukraine turning into a firing platform against Russia... there's no way of demilitarizing the firing platform against drones by the current military means.' He adds, 'Russian escalation has lost its deterrent capability outside the Ukraine.'

Helmer contends that the US is effectively 'winning' in Europe by consolidating European commitment to a 'permanent war' against Russia. He dismisses the idea that Russia can divide the US from Europe or that European political shifts (e.g., changes in leadership in Italy, UK, or France) will alter this fundamental alignment. The underlying economic and capital structures in Europe are seen as favorable to this permanent war, leading Europeans to 'buy American' and support the US 'empire strategy' of weakening Russia, despite significant economic costs to European nations like Germany.

Helmer states, 'The US is as committed to this long war against Russia as the Europeans. It's simply false... to imagine that Russia can divide the US or the Trump administration... from the Europeans.' He later adds, 'The success is Trump has gotten the Europeans to buy American to continue the underlying US empire strategy of destroying Russia in Europe. And it's working.'

Russia faces rising internal psychological insecurity and economic inconvenience due to drone attacks and gasoline shortages, particularly in western Russia and Crimea. These issues, combined with self-inflicted problems like the Central Bank's high-interest rate policies (which Helmer attributes to Putin's protection of Governor Nabiullina), are eroding voter confidence. This creates a 'vulnerable Russia' that NATO and US intelligence agencies aim to exploit, potentially threatening the ruling party's majority in upcoming elections and raising the possibility of election fraud or even postponement.

Helmer notes, 'The level of tension that's caused by drone attacks at night and the associated disruptions... increase psychological insecurity.' He also mentions, 'There are gasoline shortages and rationing in some parts of the western Russia... All of these things are felt personally.' He connects this to, 'Russian voter confidence in President Putin's leadership is correlated with Russian confidence in the Russian army.'

Helmer views the US-Iran talks in Qatar as unlikely to lead to a long-term peace, characterizing them as short-term 'accommodations' driven by attritional pressures on both sides (US needing oil, Iran needing to sell it). He highlights the US's consistent objective since the 1940s to 'divide and break any form of Arab resistance or Iranian resistance to the US empire.' The recent Israel-Lebanon MOU is interpreted as a US-Israeli war aim to liquidate Hezbollah, not a genuine peace agreement, potentially inviting further regional conflict by allowing foreign forces to intervene against Hezbollah.

Helmer states, 'The issue really remains a military one. Can the US dictate the future of Iran under military attack?' Regarding the Lebanon MOU, he says, 'what this MOU represents is the liquidation of Hezbollah and that's a war aim for the Israelis and the Americans.'