The Lakers Are In TROUBLE!!
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Luka Doncic's decision to pass a potential game-winning shot against the Magic was widely criticized as a 'panic button' moment, despite his track record.
- ❖Former players argue that end-game plays should be simplified, giving the ball to the best one-on-one player rather than complex schemes.
- ❖The Lakers hold a concerning 1-11 record against the top seven teams in the league, indicating significant struggles against playoff-caliber opponents.
- ❖Gil Arenas speculates the Lakers might intentionally aim for the 7th seed to face 'younger' teams in the playoffs, avoiding top contenders like Denver.
- ❖Statistical analysis shows the Luka, LeBron, and Austin Reeves trio has a negative net rating (-7.9), making them counterproductive when on the court together.
- ❖Luka's ball-dominant playstyle, characterized by slow tempo and 'bad shots' like 27-foot step-backs, is seen as detrimental to team rhythm and efficiency, despite his high scoring and assist numbers.
Insights
1Luka Doncic's Game-Winning Pass Decision
Luka Doncic passed up a potential game-winning three-pointer against the Magic, a decision heavily criticized by the panel. Gil Arenas states that all prior game stats are irrelevant in that moment, and top players must take the shot. Kenya M. suggests Luka 'froze up' and tried to 'sell' an excuse that the shot was 'too far,' despite his history of making deeper shots.
Gil Arenas: 'All those stats is irrelevant to that moment in time... I just think he just fought too much.' () Kenya M.: 'Don't try to sell us that [expletive] was too far. You were a foot behind the three-point line. Like, you froze up.' ()
2Critique of Overly Complex Game-Winning Plays
Gil Arenas, as a 'game-winning expert,' criticizes coaches for calling overly complicated plays at the end of games, particularly 'zipper up' plays that force players to move away from the basket before shooting. He advocates for simplicity: giving the ball to the best one-on-one player and clearing out.
Gil Arenas: 'I personally just don't like certain coaches calling game winners... Just make it easy, man. Give it to your best one-on-one guy. Everybody get the [expletive] at the baseline. Let him do his do his job.' ()
3Lakers' Poor Performance Against Top Teams
The Lakers have a concerning record against top-tier NBA teams, going 1-11 against the top seven teams in the league. This struggle is highlighted as a major concern for their playoff aspirations, as they will inevitably face such teams.
Josiah: 'Lakers... are 1 and 11 against the top seven teams in the league right now.' () Gil Arenas: 'It's always a concern that you can't beat the top teams because that's who you're going to face in the playoffs.' ()
4Gil Arenas' Playoff Seeding 'Plan'
Gil Arenas suggests the Lakers might be strategically aiming for the 7th seed in the playoffs to avoid top contenders like Nikola Jokic's team (Denver) and Kevin Durant's team (Phoenix). He implies a preference for playing 'younger' or less experienced teams in the first round, despite their poor record against the Spurs (1-3).
Gil Arenas: 'We don't want five at all. We don't want four at all because four means Jokic is at five. So, therefore, we got to move. We got to lose a little bit, right? To get to six. Now, six has Kevin Durant. Maybe, maybe not. I think we going to just we going to settle with seven.' ()
5Critique of Luka's Ball-Dominant Playstyle and Shot Selection
Panelists criticize Luka's playstyle as too ball-dominant and slow, leading to 'bad shots' and a lack of rhythm for teammates. They argue that while he averages high points and assists, a more efficient approach with better shot selection and off-ball movement would benefit the team more, similar to how Stephen Curry plays.
Kenya M.: 'I just don't think the way he plays is going to get it done.' () Kenya M.: 'It's just I see a lot of bad shots... Instead of me shooting this 27, 28 foot step back, let me get in the paint and make a play.' () Gil Arenas: 'That's how Steph get open cuz he be back screening and doing all that for everybody else cuz he understand. He understands. He moves.' ()
6Inefficiency of the Luka, LeBron, and Reeves Trio
Advanced statistics reveal that when Luka, LeBron, and Austin Reeves are on the court together, the Lakers have a negative net rating (-7.9), indicating they are counterproductive as a unit. Conversely, lineups with Luka and Reeves without LeBron, or LeBron without the other two, show significantly positive net ratings.
Josiah: 'With Luca, LeBron, and Reeves on the floor together, Lakers have a 110.6 offensive rating, 118.5 defensive rating, and a 7.9 net rating or negative 7.9 net rating.' () Josiah: 'With Luca and Reeves on the court without LeBron, they have a 126.4 offensive rating, 108.5 defensive rating, plus 17.9 rating.' ()
Lessons
- Coaches should simplify end-game plays, trusting their best one-on-one scorer with the ball and clearing out, rather than relying on complex, easily disrupted schemes.
- Luka Doncic needs to diversify his offensive approach by incorporating more off-ball movement, setting screens, and making plays in the paint to involve teammates and create better shot opportunities, reducing reliance on contested step-back threes.
- The Lakers must re-evaluate their 'big three' lineup (Luka, LeBron, Reeves) to address its statistical inefficiency, potentially staggering minutes or adjusting roles to optimize their collective impact.
- Players like Austin Reeves, who are adaptable, should be given more opportunities to push the tempo and get involved early in games to prevent them from being 'iced out' and forced into bad shots later.
Quotes
"All that stuff that you just stated, Josiah, that sound like a first round exit. Go."
"Sometimes it's just it's just that simple. And I think sometimes coaches overcoach thinking they need to thinking they need to draw up a great play to get a great result when just give it to your player."
"Don't don't don't try to sell us that [expletive] was too far. You were a foot behind the three-point line. Like, you froze up. Like, that's just what it is."
"I just don't think the way he plays is going to get it done."
"If you're passing chicken shots like you know Clay scores 60 with 11 dribbles. You know how many possessions he's putting in the game?"
Q&A
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