These Trump Voters Think He Staged His Own Assassination Attempt (w/ David Frum) | Focus Group
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Focus groups show both disaffected Trump voters and Democrats believe alleged assassination attempts on Trump were staged.
- ❖Voters perceive these incidents as ploys to boost Trump's approval ratings or achieve political goals, like securing a 'ballroom.'
- ❖David Frum posits that conspiracy theories might be a byproduct of increased access to information, as individuals attempt to 'reconstruct reality' for themselves.
- ❖The term '86' (as in James Comey's '8647' post) is widely understood by voters, including Republicans, as meaning 'to get rid of' or 'out of stock,' not 'to kill.'
- ❖Trump's history of promoting conspiracy theories and lacking empathy has created a low-trust environment where his own claims are met with skepticism.
- ❖The FBI's focus on the '86' controversy amidst a shooting war with Iran highlights a misallocation of resources and priorities, according to David Frum.
Insights
1Widespread Skepticism of Trump's Alleged Assassination Attempts
Focus groups with both disaffected Trump voters and Democrats revealed a pervasive belief that recent alleged assassination attempts on Donald Trump were staged. Voters cited lax security, Trump's immediate focus on unrelated issues (like needing a 'ballroom'), and his declining approval ratings as reasons to suspect a 'ploy.'
Voters stated, 'It just doesn't make sense to me that there have been this many close attempts on his life,' and 'I feel like it was a ploy to get his ballroom that he wants.' Another said, 'I'm not a conspiracy person at all but there are a lot of red flags here.'
2Trump's Own Rhetoric Undermines His Credibility
David Frum argues that Trump's history of promoting conspiracy theories (e.g., birtherism) and his consistent lack of decency and empathy have fostered a low-trust environment. This has led his own base, built on mistrust, to now distrust his claims, even regarding serious events like alleged assassination attempts.
Frum states, 'If you build a political movement that is based on appealing to the most disaffected, least trustful, most alienated people in American society and then you don't deliver for them... they turn their mistrust, their alienation on the source of their dissatisfaction.'
3Desensitization to Political Violence and Rise of Self-Informed Conspiracy
The host notes that voters did not organically bring up the alleged assassination attempt, suggesting a desensitization to such events. Frum connects this to the idea that increased information access, while making people 'smarter,' also empowers them to 'reconstruct reality' for themselves, often leading to self-confident but misinformed conspiracy theories.
A voter noted, 'I'm almost becoming desensitized.' Frum added, 'These people know much more about the details of what happened very fast than would have been the case in a previous era... they've reached their own views... from their self-confidence.'
4Public Rejection of the '86' as a Violent Threat
Regarding James Comey's '8647' Instagram post, focus group participants, including Louisiana Republicans, largely dismissed the idea that '86' is a violent term meaning 'kill.' Many recognized it from its common usage in the restaurant industry or as a general term for 'getting rid of' something.
A participant stated, 'I work in the restaurant industry. 86 is a term that we use all the time. And so that's why my mind goes to like it's not necessarily violent.' Another said, '86 is also used very commonly as a way to say get rid of it.'
Bottom Line
Trump's political movement, built on appealing to disaffected and mistrustful individuals, has created a boomerang effect where his own supporters now apply that same mistrust to his personal narratives and claims.
This dynamic suggests that leaders who weaponize distrust risk losing control of the narrative, even among their most loyal followers, leading to a fragmented and unpredictable political landscape.
For political communicators, understanding this boomerang effect is critical. Authenticity and consistent messaging, even on difficult topics, may be more effective than manipulative tactics in maintaining long-term credibility with a base.
The FBI's intense focus on investigating James Comey's '8647' Instagram post as a violent threat, amidst an ongoing 'shooting war' with Iran, indicates a significant misallocation of counterterrorism resources and priorities.
This suggests that political vendettas and internal political battles may be diverting critical national security resources from genuine external threats, potentially leaving the country vulnerable.
Policymakers and the public should scrutinize the motivations behind high-profile investigations, especially those that appear politically charged, to ensure that law enforcement agencies are prioritizing actual threats to national security over perceived slights.
Key Concepts
The Individual is Foolish, the Species is Wise
Derived from Edmund Burke, this model suggests that while individual opinions can be ill-informed, the aggregation of millions of opinions often yields sounder collective decisions. Democracy's strength lies in protecting the many from the few, not in the individual's perfect judgment.
Conspiracy Theories as a Price of Information
David Frum proposes that the rise in conspiracy theories may be a consequence of increased education and information access. People, feeling more informed, attempt to reconstruct reality for themselves rather than relying on authority, sometimes leading to misinformed conclusions.
Lessons
- Cultivate critical thinking skills to discern between genuine news and conspiracy theories, especially in an information-saturated environment where self-confidence can lead to misinformed conclusions.
- Recognize that political leaders' consistent rhetoric and behavior, particularly regarding truth and decency, can profoundly shape public trust and the collective perception of reality.
- Support media and institutions that prioritize factual reporting and intellectual consistency, as a counter-balance to the pervasive spread of misinformation and politically motivated narratives.
Notable Moments
David Frum's observation that conspiracy theories might be the 'price we pay for getting smarter about stuff,' as individuals attempt to reconstruct reality for themselves.
This reframes the problem of misinformation, suggesting it's not just about ignorance but about a misapplication of newfound access to information and a rejection of traditional authority.
The hosts' discussion about the 'when bad things happen to bad people' dynamic, where Trump's lack of decency means he lacks standing to complain when others show him similar disrespect.
This highlights the cyclical nature of political discourse, where a leader's own behavior sets the standard for how they are treated, eroding norms of civility and empathy.
Quotes
"Conspiracy theories may be the price we pay for the rising level of education and information in our society."
"If you build a political movement that is based on appealing to the most disaffected, least trustful, most alienated people in American society and then you don't deliver for them, what happens? They turn their mistrust, their alienation on the source of their dissatisfaction."
"When bad things happen to bad people... Donald Trump doesn't have a lot of standing to complain about it since that's his favorite joke and the celebration of the suffering of others."
"If you are a president who has built a community around you of conspiracy theorists, it should not shock you when those conspiracy theories come for you too."
Q&A
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