Iran Sets Negotiation Terms; Trump’s War On Disabled People w/ Jeremy Scahill, Eli Hager | MR Live
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Trump administration's war on Iran was a strategic blunder, based on flawed Israeli intelligence and executed by unqualified negotiators.
- ❖Iran demonstrated sophisticated military and intelligence capabilities, humiliating the US by effectively countering its superior forces and disrupting global markets.
- ❖Iran's negotiation terms are firm, leveraging its "munitions, markets, and midterm elections" against US pressure.
- ❖The Trump administration is proposing cuts to Supplemental Security Income (SSI) for disabled adults living with family, particularly those receiving SNAP benefits.
- ❖These SSI cuts would reduce benefits by a third, forcing many disabled individuals into more expensive institutional care, increasing taxpayer costs.
- ❖The SSI application process is already rigorous, with less than a third of applicants approved, and recipients face constant financial supervision.
Insights
1Iran's Strategic Resilience and Negotiation Leverage
Despite the US and Israel assassinating Iran's supreme leader and much of its military/intelligence leadership, Iran engaged in six weeks of asymmetric and symmetric warfare, causing significant damage to US military assets and evacuating 13 American bases. Iran's 'three M's'—munitions (recognizing Israel's interceptor shortage), markets (global economic crisis due to oil prices), and midterm elections (US political pressure)—give it strong leverage, leading to the humiliation of US negotiators.
Iran caused massive global economic crisis, stood down the US in the Strait of Hormuz, and inflicted more damage on US aircraft than admitted. Iranian officials consistently predicted negotiation outcomes. Oil prices topped $126 a barrel. Iran's ability to sabotage undersea internet cables was hinted at. Trump allies are pushing for a swift resolution.
2US Foreign Policy Driven by Flawed Intelligence and Unqualified Negotiators
The Trump administration's decision to go to war with Iran was based on 'cooked' Israeli intelligence that falsely assessed Iran's government was on the verge of collapse. US negotiators, specifically Jared Kushner and Steve Whitcomb, lacked diplomatic and technical expertise, were seen as representing Israeli and Trump family interests, and were outmaneuvered by Iran's sophisticated, expert-led team.
Israeli intelligence assessed Iran was in 'total chaos' and would collapse after bombings. Jared Kushner, with deep financial and political ties to Israel and Gulf countries, was a key negotiator. US negotiators brought no technical experts, while Iran had nuclear experts and PhDs in American studies. The Omani foreign minister publicly stated a historic agreement was near just 48 hours before the US launched the war.
3Trump Administration's 'War on Disabled People' via SSI Cuts
The Trump administration is moving to cut Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits by a third for hundreds of thousands of disabled adults and children who live with their families, particularly those in households receiving SNAP (food stamp) benefits. This policy reverses a long-standing exception that recognized lower-income families' inability to fully support disabled members without federal aid.
Eli Hager's ProPublica reporting details multiple sources confirming the administration's intent. The current system reduces SSI benefits if a disabled person lives with family, but exempts public assistance households. The new rule would eliminate the SNAP household exception.
4Counterproductive Financial and Social Impact of SSI Cuts
The proposed SSI cuts, while saving minimal federal funds (e.g., $11/month per person), would likely force disabled individuals into institutional care. This shift would drastically increase taxpayer costs (hundreds of dollars a day per person) and disrupt family structures, undermining the psychological safety and support crucial for people with intellectual and mental disabilities.
A comparison showed cutting one person's benefits saved $11/month but institutionalization would cost hundreds of dollars a day. Evangelical groups oppose the cuts, viewing SSI as a 'family values issue' that keeps families together. People with Down syndrome or autism often thrive better at home due to familiarity and comfort.
Bottom Line
The UAE's strategic alignment with the West and Israel, culminating in its exit from OPEC and a defense pact with Ukraine, is driven by a desire to become the 'favored Arab nation' of the US and a perceived cold war with Saudi Arabia.
This regional power play complicates Middle Eastern geopolitics, potentially fragmenting OPEC's influence and creating new security alliances that could further isolate Iran while benefiting US strategic interests in the region.
Analysts should monitor the evolving UAE-US-Israel axis for shifts in regional power dynamics and potential impacts on global energy markets and security architecture.
The US's historical intervention in Iran (installing the Shah, stealing oil) directly contributed to the 1979 Iranian Revolution and subsequent oil shocks, creating a cyclical pattern of economic pain and conflict that continues today.
This historical context suggests that current US policies, framed as 'avenging' past events, are perpetuating a cycle of conflict rather than resolving it, with predictable negative economic consequences for the US and global economy.
Policy makers could explore non-interventionist approaches that acknowledge historical grievances and seek genuine diplomatic solutions, rather than repeating patterns that lead to economic instability and war.
Lessons
- Contact your members of Congress and senators to object to the proposed cuts to Supplemental Security Income (SSI) for disabled adults living with their families, emphasizing the counterproductive financial and social costs.
- Seek out independent news sources like DropSite News to gain a more nuanced and less biased understanding of US foreign policy, particularly concerning the Middle East, to counter mainstream narratives.
- Educate yourself and others on the rigorous process of applying for SSI and the severe financial constraints placed on recipients, to challenge misconceptions about fraud and advocate for stronger social safety nets.
Notable Moments
Host Emma Vigeland fact-checks Representative Steve Scalise's false claims about gas prices under the Biden administration, using a chart to show actual price trends.
This highlights the deliberate misinformation used by politicians to manipulate public perception of economic conditions, even on financial news networks where data is readily available.
The Omani foreign minister publicly announced being on the verge of a 'highly significant historic agreement' between the US and Iran, just 48 hours before the US launched a war against Iran.
This reveals the US administration's duplicity, using negotiations as a cover to buy time and position assets for military action, severely undermining trust in future diplomatic efforts.
Quotes
"When you cartoonize the quote unquote enemy to such a degree that you cease to believe that there's any logic behind their actions or that they're not rational actors, you do a disservice to your own cause."
"Cutting her benefits would essentially save taxpayers $11 a month. If that, if that means that her family, without that, without that income for the household, if that means that her family can no longer support her there in the household, she would instead have to move into a group home or nursing facility and that would cost taxpayers hundreds of dollars a day."
"The truth is that that was a fixation or a a uh fixture of a racist imaginations. And that who was actually being benefited from that was people who were caring for people. Like large in large part, it was keeping people together with members of their family who needed more assistance."
Q&A
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