Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The 65-game rule was initially seen by Gil Arenas as a 'dumbest rule' for its unintended financial consequences.
- ❖It creates a 'trickle-up effect' where borderline players receive All-NBA honors and associated contract escalators when top players miss the game threshold.
- ❖Gil argues that 'load management' is primarily a directive from upper management, not a player preference.
- ❖The rule incentivizes players to play through injuries to unlock contract bonuses, potentially leading to further injury (e.g., Haliburton, Mitchell, Embiid).
- ❖Skip Bayless supports the rule, believing it motivates stars to play more games, which is good for fans.
- ❖Historically, MVPs have consistently played over 70 games, suggesting top-tier performance often aligns with high game counts.
- ❖Jaylen Brown suggests a slightly lower threshold, like 62 games, as a fairer balance.
- ❖The rule, if applied retroactively, would strip numerous All-NBA selections from legends like Shaq, LeBron, and Steph Curry, altering historical records.
Insights
1The 65-Game Rule Inflates 'Borderline' Player Contracts
Gil Arenas asserts that the rule, intended to ensure star availability, has an inverse effect on team finances. If a superstar misses the 65-game threshold, they become ineligible for All-NBA honors. This opens up spots for players who might typically be ranked lower, allowing them to make All-NBA teams and unlock significant contract escalators (e.g., from $120 million to $200-300 million). This 'trickle-up effect' means teams end up paying more for players who are not necessarily top-tier, contradicting the presumed cost-cutting intent of the owners.
Gil states, 'If you have your normal third team players and seven of those guys are ineligible who would have got voted for that means there's seven players who are going to get that award means they done unlocked some different money that the teams can't afford.' () He later adds, 'Now he makes the AllNBA cuz he's next up in line. Now he's all of 200, 300, 300 million.' ()
2Load Management is a Management-Driven Mandate, Not Player Choice
Gil Arenas strongly argues that the narrative of players choosing to 'load manage' is false. He contends that players inherently want to play due to competitive drive and financial incentives. Instead, he claims that 'load management' decisions, including rest days, are imposed by team management and medical staff, often to protect the team's investment in a player or to avoid triggering large contract bonuses.
Gil states, 'It's load management coming from upper management. Oh, it's always been upper management.' () He further illustrates, 'If I played 65 games and I'm all NBA player... and there's two games left and I got my I twisted my ankle. I'm playing... What you think the doctors and the coaches are saying? Don't play... cuz they don't want me to unlock the extra 100 million.' ()
3The Rule Undermines Player Legacy and Historical Context
The hosts argue that the 65-game rule unfairly impacts player legacies by retroactively diminishing the accomplishments of past stars who earned All-NBA honors with fewer games. They point out that applying this rule to previous eras would strip numerous awards from legends, creating a distorted view of historical greatness and making it harder for current players to compare their achievements.
Gil notes, 'You're altering history... there's guys in history that don't qualify for no award if you put the 65-game rule in there. So, that means Shaq has to lose uh four or five all-stars. LeBron misses four. Steph misses like three all-NBA teams.' () He also mentions Joel Embiid would have 'three less All-NBAs' ().
4The Rule Motivates Star Play and Benefits Fans, Despite Individual Hardship
Skip Bayless defends the 65-game rule, emphasizing its benefit to fans and its role in motivating star players. He argues that fans want to see the best players on the court, and the rule provides an incentive for players to push through minor ailments to qualify for prestigious awards. He acknowledges individual cases like Cade Cunningham's freak injury but views it as an unfortunate exception.
Skip states, 'I love this rule and that's why I would fight for this rule because I I still think it's a fair rule because of this. In the last 25 years, we haven't had an MVP play fewer than 70 games.' () He adds, 'just for the fan sake, I I do like the rule because it does give you a little more motivation to try to qualify if you're making a run at one of the all teams or the MVP.' ()
Bottom Line
The 65-game rule, intended to reduce 'load management' and ensure star player availability, inadvertently creates a financial 'trickle-up' effect, leading to higher overall salary commitments for teams by elevating 'borderline' players to All-NBA status when superstars miss the threshold.
This means the rule, designed to protect owner interests by incentivizing player participation, may actually increase team payrolls through unexpected contract escalators, creating a paradoxical financial outcome.
The NBA and NBPA could explore alternative incentive structures for player participation and award eligibility that do not have such significant unintended financial consequences for teams or force players to risk injury for contract bonuses. This could involve tiered awards, injury exemptions, or a total points/production metric rather than just average per game.
The rule shifts the power dynamic regarding player health decisions, with team management potentially overriding player desire to play, especially when contract incentives are at stake.
Players might feel compelled to push through injuries to meet the game threshold, even against medical advice from their team, to secure career-defining financial bonuses. Conversely, teams might sit players who are close to triggering a bonus, even if the player feels capable of playing, to avoid a large payout.
Future collective bargaining agreements could include clearer guidelines or independent medical review processes for player availability, particularly when a player is near an award threshold, to balance player agency, team financial interests, and player health.
Key Concepts
Trickle-Up Effect in Player Contracts
When top-tier players miss the 65-game threshold, they become ineligible for All-NBA teams. This opens spots for 'borderline' players, who then receive All-NBA honors and corresponding contract escalators (e.g., supermax eligibility), leading to higher overall team payrolls than intended by the rule's creators.
Load Management as an Owner/Management Directive
The idea that players are 'resting' is often a mischaracterization. Gil Arenas argues that decisions to sit players are frequently made by team management and medical staff, driven by long-term asset protection and cost-cutting, rather than player desire to avoid competition.
Pain Threshold vs. Longevity Incentives
Historically, players like Michael Jordan and Gil Arenas played through significant pain. Modern NBA teams, however, prioritize player longevity and long-term value, using advanced analytics and medical advice to enforce rest, even if a player's personal 'pain threshold' would allow them to play. This creates a conflict between a player's competitive drive/contract incentives and team-mandated preservation.
Lessons
- NBA teams should re-evaluate the long-term financial implications of the 65-game rule, considering the 'trickle-up' effect on player contracts for non-superstars.
- The NBPA should push for clearer injury exemptions or a revised game threshold (e.g., 60 or 62 games) to protect players from being penalized for unavoidable injuries.
- Fans should understand that player 'load management' is often a complex decision influenced by team management and medical staff, not solely a player's choice to rest.
Notable Moments
Gil Arenas's immediate and strong condemnation of the 65-game rule as 'one of the dumbest rules' when it was first implemented.
This establishes his long-standing opposition and frames the subsequent discussion from a perspective of prior foresight regarding the rule's flaws.
The hosts' rapid-fire hypothetical scenario of applying the 65-game rule retroactively, revealing how many All-NBA selections would be stripped from legends like Shaq, LeBron, and Steph Curry.
This vividly illustrates the rule's impact on historical context and player legacies, making a strong argument against its current form by showing its potential to distort past achievements.
Quotes
"This is one of the dumbest rules that they can put because if you have someone like Cade who misses... someone has to replace him. So if you have your normal third team players and seven of those guys are ineligible who would have got voted for that means there's seven players who are going to get that award means they done unlocked some different money that the teams can't afford."
"It's load management coming from upper management. Oh, it's always been upper management."
"In the last 25 years, we haven't had an MVP play fewer than 70 games. So, they've all qualified for 25 straight years."
"I was never a fan of the 65 game. For the record, I always thought it should be like 62. Like 65 seemed it a bit just a tad bit high."
Q&A
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