Quick Read

A recent Wisconsin Supreme Court election signals a significant shift in voter sentiment away from Trump and the GOP, alongside a record number of Republican retirements and growing criticism from former allies, indicating deep-seated political and economic challenges for the party.
Wisconsin's Supreme Court election showed a massive 13-28 point swing to the left in districts Trump previously won.
A historic 36 House and 7 Senate Republicans are not seeking re-election, the most since 1930, signaling party distress.
Economic woes (inflation, gas prices) and foreign policy failures (Iran war) are alienating voters and even former Trump loyalists.

Summary

The episode analyzes recent political developments, including a surprising Democratic victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, which saw a substantial swing in support towards Democrats across congressional districts previously won by Trump. The host argues that this, combined with a historic number of Republican retirements from Congress and rising public discontent over economic issues and foreign policy (specifically the Iran war), indicates a weakening of Trump's and the GOP's political standing. The discussion also covers the constitutional mechanisms of the 25th Amendment and impeachment as potential checks on presidential power, the DOJ's handling of Pam Bondi's subpoena regarding the Epstein files, and the shifting loyalties of prominent right-wing media figures like Tucker Carlson and Alex Jones. The episode concludes with an interview with Mary Peltola, a Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Alaska, who discusses her campaign strategy, anti-corruption platform, and the unique challenges of campaigning in a vast state.
This episode offers a critical perspective on the current political landscape, highlighting potential vulnerabilities for the Republican party and Donald Trump. It details specific election results and political trends that could foreshadow broader shifts in national elections, providing insights into the challenges facing the GOP regarding voter sentiment, internal party cohesion, and public perception of their policies on economy and foreign affairs. The discussion on constitutional checks and the struggles of a Democratic candidate in a historically Republican state further illuminate the complexities of American politics.

Takeaways

  • Democrat Chris Taylor flipped a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, expanding the liberal majority to 5:2, with significant Democratic overperformance in districts Trump previously won.
  • A record 36 House and 7 Senate Republicans have announced they are not seeking re-election, the highest number since 1930, surpassing the 2018 cycle that saw Democrats flip 40 seats.
  • Trump's central promises of affordability, cheap gas, and no foreign wars have been contradicted by rising grocery/consumer prices, surging inflation, high gas prices, and the ongoing war in the Middle East.
  • The 25th Amendment provides mechanisms for presidential succession and temporary disability, with Section 4 allowing the Vice President and a majority of the cabinet (or a body established by Congress) to remove a president deemed unable to discharge duties.
  • Prominent right-wing figures like Tucker Carlson, Megan Kelly, Alex Jones, and Candace Owens have publicly criticized Trump, indicating a potential permanent break due to his policies and perceived political weakness.
  • The Iran war has led to a four-point drop in Trump's approval rating, contrary to the typical 'rally around the flag' effect seen in previous conflicts.
  • Iran's proposed 10-point 'workable basis' for negotiation includes demands for lifting all sanctions, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and US/Israel not attacking Iran again, which the host frames as a maximalist list offering no US gains.
  • Mary Peltola, a Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Alaska, is polling ahead of her Republican opponent, emphasizing a nonpartisan, common-sense approach to address local hardships and advocating for an anti-corruption agenda.
  • Campaigning in Alaska is uniquely expensive due to vast distances and the expectation of face-to-face communication, with yard signs costing $25 each to deliver to remote villages.

Insights

1Wisconsin Election Signals Major Democratic Shift

Democrat Chris Taylor's victory in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election expanded the liberal majority to 5:2. This victory was particularly notable because Taylor won seven of eight congressional districts, including five that Trump had previously won. The reddest district in the state saw a 13-point swing to the left, and another district experienced a 28-point swing, indicating a significant shift in voter support towards Democrats.

On Tuesday, Democrat Chris Taylor flipped a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, expanding the liberal majority from 4 to 3 to 5:2. Back in 2024, Trump actually won six of the eight congressional districts in Wisconsin. But on Tuesday, Chris Taylor won seven of the eight congressional districts, meaning a flip of support in five seats. The only seat in Wisconsin that didn't have higher Democratic support than Republican support is Wisconsin's fifth congressional district. And that went from a 22-point margin for Trump to a 9-point margin, meaning a 13-point swing to the left. The biggest swing in the state was actually in Wisconsin's third district where there was a 28-point swing to the left.

2Historic Republican Retirements Reflect Party Distress

A record 36 House Republicans and 7 Senate Republicans have announced they will not seek re-election, the highest number since 1930. This surpasses the 34 Republican retirements seen in the 2018 midterm cycle, which resulted in Democrats flipping 40 seats and achieving the biggest midterm victory in modern American history. This trend suggests deep concern within the Republican party about their electoral prospects.

36 of them in the House and seven Republicans in the Senate have already announced that they're not seeking re-election, which is the most of any point in nearly a century since this data was compiled starting in 1930. For comparison, the 2018 midterm cycle uh saw 34 Republicans choose not to run for reelection. That was a cycle that resulted in Democrats flipping 40 seats, the biggest midterm victory in modern American history. The Republicans retirements right now are greater than in 2016 2018.

3Trump's Policies Contradict Core Promises

Trump's administration has seen the opposite of its core promises: grocery and consumer prices have risen, inflation is expected to exceed 5% (nearly double what it was when Biden left office), gas prices are at their highest in years, and the Middle East war is framed as a disaster that has weakened the US and strengthened Iran.

Trump and his party ran on a few central promises. Affordability, cheap gas, no foreign wars. And what happened? The exact opposite on all counts. Grocery prices have risen since Trump took office in January. Consumer prices overall are up during Trump's second term. Inflation is now expected to rise beyond 5% which is nearly double what it was when inflation public enemy number one Joe Biden left office. Gas prices are at their highest point in years. And then of course the war in the Middle East is an abject disaster, leaving the US in a position where we are weaker and Iran is stronger after all of this.

4The 25th Amendment: A Limited Check on Presidential Power

Congressman Jamie Raskin explains the 25th Amendment, particularly Section 4, which allows the Vice President and a majority of the cabinet (or a body established by Congress) to declare the president unable to discharge duties and transfer power. However, its effectiveness is limited by the need for Vice Presidential action and the political loyalty of the cabinet, making it a difficult tool to invoke against a president who demands 'undying slavish devotion' from appointees.

What everybody's talking about is section four of the 25th amendment. And what this says is that the vice president and a majority of the cabinet can determine that the president is unable to successfully discharge the powers and duties of office and thereby transfer the powers of the office to the vice president. Now the president has the opportunity to challenge that and oppose that in which case it goes to a vote of the Congress and there needs to be a two-thirds vote in order to maintain the transfer of power. The paramount qualification for service in the Trump cabinet, which is why his cabinet meetings are so embarrassing. It's just people going around in Stalinist fashion talking about how great the dear leader is. And so that's why I say this is not a panacea for what hils us right now.

5Pam Bondi's Subpoena and Privilege Claims

The DOJ's attempt to prevent Pam Bondi from appearing for a sworn deposition by claiming the subpoena was for her office as Attorney General, not her personally, is challenged. Congressman Raskin clarifies that if the subpoena names Pam Bondi, she must appear. He also notes that executive privilege is not applicable for her, and invoking the Fifth Amendment against self-incrimination, while possible for specific questions, would be 'extremely damning' and suggest involvement in a 'criminal conspiracy to suppress the truth' regarding the Epstein files.

Does the subpoena subpoena the attorney general of the United States, whoever that might be, or does it subpoena and name Pam Bondi? If it names Pam Bondi, she's got to go. Uh, it's just very simple. If she invokes the fifth amendment privilege against self-inccrimination when she's asked about why she's not turning over certain documents, that in itself is extremely damning. It's basically saying we were involved in some kind of criminal conspiracy to suppress particular kinds of information.

6Right-Wing Media Figures Turn on Trump

Donald Trump has publicly attacked former vocal allies like Tucker Carlson, Megan Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones, calling them 'stupid people' with 'low IQs.' These figures, in turn, have expressed strong criticism of Trump, particularly regarding his stance on the Iran war. This shift is interpreted as these media personalities 'skating to where the puck is going,' recognizing Trump's declining influence and making career calculations.

I know why Tucker Carlson, Megan Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years... they think it is wonderful for Iran... to have nuclear weapons because they have one thing in common, low IQs. They are stupid people. Tucker, I think, was sincerely furious, sincerely offended, uh, is sincerely worried that Trump is going to use a nuclear weapon in Iran. He's someone who's known to kind of skate to where the puck is going.

7Iran War Weakens US Geopolitical Position

The ongoing war with Iran has resulted in US casualties, rising oil prices, and a damaged global reputation. Iran's proposed 10-point 'workable basis' for negotiation includes demands for lifting all sanctions, control over the Strait of Hormuz (allowing them to charge tolls), and guarantees against future attacks. This outcome is framed as Iran being in a stronger geopolitical position, potentially funding its military and proxy groups through tolls, while the US has gained nothing for its expenditures.

Iran is in a stronger geopolitical position now than they were beforehand because they have pulled this lever on the straight of Hormuz and they figured out like they can control the global economy. We have at least 13 service members who've died. We have 400 wounded. We have oil prices surging... our global reputation is just in tatters because we're led by a genocidal lunatic.

8Mary Peltola's Alaska Senate Campaign Strategy

Mary Peltola, a Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Alaska, is polling ahead of her Republican opponent, Dan Sullivan. She attributes this to Alaska's unique political landscape, where over 60% of voters are independent/nonpartisan. Her strategy focuses on 'plain spoken and common sense' collaboration for 'Alaska solutions,' emphasizing compassion and understanding for working families, and advocating for an anti-corruption agenda including banning stock trading by members of Congress and corporate board memberships.

Alaska is actually 12% Democrats, 25% Republican, and over 60% independent, nonpartisan, undeclared. And so that just goes to show you right there, the majority of Alaskans prefer kind of a nonpartisan conversation. I find it unbelievable that these things aren't illegal as it is. things like being members being on corporate boards, things like um being allowed to do stock trading. The incumbent has quadrupled his personal wealth in the 12 years that he's been there.

Bottom Line

Tucker Carlson's strong anti-war stance and public break from Trump positions him as a potential frontrunner for an 'isolationist lane' in the 2028 Republican presidential primary, potentially displacing figures like JD Vance.

So What?

This indicates a significant realignment within the Republican party's base and potential future leadership, moving away from Trump's direct influence towards a more populist, anti-interventionist platform, even if it means challenging established party figures.

Impact

Political strategists and media analysts should monitor Carlson's influence and rhetoric as a bellwether for future conservative movements and potential presidential bids, as his audience's loyalty could be transferable.

The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, due to the Iran war, has created a backlog of 400+ ships, severely impacting the global supply chain for oil, gas, and fertilizer, potentially leading to a global food crisis.

So What?

Beyond immediate energy price hikes, this situation threatens global food security and economic stability, highlighting the far-reaching and severe consequences of regional conflicts on interconnected global systems.

Impact

Governments and international organizations need contingency plans for critical supply chain disruptions. Businesses in logistics, agriculture, and energy should diversify routes and sources, and invest in resilient supply chain technologies.

Trump's past 'easy win' in Venezuela and 'clear failure' in Iran could lead him to pursue regime change in Cuba next, driven by a bruised ego and the influence of hardline Cuban Republicans and advisors like Marco Rubio.

So What?

This suggests a high risk of another US military intervention or aggressive foreign policy action in Cuba, potentially leading to unforeseen consequences, casualties, and further destabilization in the Caribbean region.

Impact

International bodies and diplomatic channels should proactively engage to de-escalate potential conflicts and promote peaceful resolutions in Cuba. Businesses with interests in the Caribbean should assess geopolitical risks and prepare for potential disruptions.

Lessons

  • Engage in local and national elections, as demonstrated by the Wisconsin Supreme Court outcome, which can significantly impact political majorities and policy direction.
  • Support candidates like Mary Peltola who advocate for anti-corruption measures, such as banning stock trading by members of Congress and corporate board memberships, to promote greater accountability in government.
  • Stay informed about constitutional mechanisms like the 25th Amendment and impeachment processes, understanding their limitations and potential applications in times of political crisis.

Quotes

"

"You can try and convince people not to believe their own lying eyes, but grocery bills, utility bills, and expenses don't lie. And they are all more expensive thanks to Trump and the GOP."

Brian Tyler Cohen
"

"The 25th amendment is all about continuity and stability in government."

Jamie Raskin
"

"The paramount qualification for service in the Trump cabinet, which is why his cabinet meetings are so embarrassing. It's just people going around in Stalinist fashion talking about how great the dear leader is."

Jamie Raskin
"

"If she invokes the fifth amendment privilege against self-inccrimination when she's asked about why she's not turning over certain documents, that in itself is extremely damning. It's basically saying we were involved in some kind of criminal conspiracy to suppress particular kinds of information."

Jamie Raskin
"

"Trump's approval rating has gone down four points, right? Cuz like Democrats, independents, like normal people are like, 'Why are we at war with Iran?'"

Tommy Vietor
"

"Alaska is actually 12% Democrats, 25% Republican, and over 60% independent, nonpartisan, undeclared."

Mary Peltola
"

"I find it unbelievable that these things aren't illegal as it is. things like being members being on corporate boards, things like um being allowed to do stock trading."

Mary Peltola

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