Matthew Hoh: "CHANGE COURSE OR ELSE!" – Trump to Israel

The primary impetus for the US signing a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran was not an imminent Iranian military attack on Israel, but rather Iran's effective economic warfare. This included the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for four days and the subsequent depletion of US strategic petroleum reserves to their lowest levels ever, signaling an impending global oil inventory crisis by early July. Trump himself acknowledged the economic pressure, stating the US was four weeks from running out of reserves and fearing a global depression.

Iran closed Strait of Hormuz for four days, US strategic petroleum reserves hit lowest level, global oil inventories depleted. Trump stated, 'In four weeks, we were going to be out of our reserves.'

The US-Iran deal has created a significant ideological split within the Republican Party, setting the stage for the 2028 presidential nomination battle. JD Vance is aligning with an 'America First' platform, supporting Trump's deal and legacy, while Marco Rubio is positioning himself with neoconservative, Zionist, and imperialist interests, backed by corporate media and DC institutions. Trump's preference for Vance over Rubio is evident, as he views Vance as having MAGA base support.

JD Vance backs the agreement, supporting Trump's legacy. Marco Rubio is expected to lead neoconservative support. Trump called his critics (Fox News pundits) 'stupid' and 'not nice people.'

Donald Trump is publicly challenging Israel in a manner unseen from previous US presidents. His True Social message threatening to 'cut them off' if Israelis don't align, and his statements wanting 'Israel to back down' and 'Syria to get in,' represent a stark departure from the 'ironclad relationship' rhetoric of past administrations. This suggests a potential re-evaluation of US-Israel relations, driven by Trump's self-interest in securing a 'peace president' legacy.

Trump's True Social message: 'if the Israelis don't get in line, I'm going to cut them off.' He stated, 'I want Israel to back down. I want Syria to get in.'

From the US perspective, the primary gain from the Iran deal is simply an exit from a lost war. The deal involves significant US concessions, such as lifting the blockade on Iranian ports, issuing sanction waivers, and allowing Iran access to a $300 billion development fund, with no equivalent concessions from Iran regarding its nuclear program, which is deferred to future technical negotiations. This outcome is framed as 'what losing a war looks like.'

The MOU includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports, and Iran gaining access to a $300 billion development fund. Point 8 defers nuclear issues to future negotiations. Hoh states, 'What does the United States get out of this deal? It gets out of this war.'

The Ukraine war is in a dangerous phase of incremental escalation, with Europeans and Ukrainians holding onto a 'strategy of hope' for renewed US aid after the 2028 presidential election or if Democrats gain control of Congress. Despite this hope, the conflict sees increasing drone warfare, attacks on critical infrastructure, and a growing risk of a 'war of the cities' similar to the Iran-Iraq war, where population centers are targeted to punish the adversary.

G7 agreed to refocus on applying tensions on Russia. Ukrainian drone campaign is 'somewhat effective' against Russian refineries and export facilities. Hoh describes it as 'a dangerous place' with 'continually incrementally growing escalation.'