How to Spot Lies & Find Truth as Conspiracies Spread on Both Sides | Michael Shermer
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Policy makers often present uncertain scientific recommendations as settled facts, eroding public trust when positions change.
- ❖A 'Bayesian' approach to truth involves assigning probabilities (e.g., 1-99%) and updating beliefs as new evidence emerges, rather than absolute certainty.
- ❖The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted institutional failures, such as prolonged school closures, which were later revealed to be unnecessary or politically motivated.
- ❖Independent journalism is valuable, but individuals must cross-reference multiple sources, as no single source is fully trustworthy.
- ❖AI Large Language Models (LLMs) like Grok and Gemini can serve as effective initial fact-checking tools by aggregating information from numerous sources.
- ❖Shermer now views religious stories as forms of 'great literature' that convey 'deeper truths' or 'mythological truths' rather than literal, empirical facts.
- ❖Historical revisionism, exemplified by figures like Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson, often rehashes debunked arguments for financial or ideological gain.
- ❖The phrase 'just asking questions' is frequently a deceptive tactic used by conspiracy theorists to introduce doubt and push an agenda.
- ❖The 'default to truth' cognitive bias means most people initially believe what they're told, but critical thinking emerges for important matters.
- ❖The widespread belief in UAPs (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) often stems from a 'religious impulse' for a higher, more advanced power to 'rescue' humanity.
- ❖Verifiable, high-definition evidence from multiple trusted sources (like the Chinese spy balloon incident) is required for genuine 'disclosure' of UAPs.
Insights
1The Erosion of Trust in Institutions Post-COVID
Trust in institutions and experts has significantly declined, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy makers and scientists failed to communicate scientific uncertainty, presenting recommendations (like school closures or mask efficacy) as settled science, only to reverse course later. This created a perception of untrustworthiness and fueled skepticism.
By the fall of 2020, it was clear that schools didn't need to stay closed, but they did. Policy makers feel the need to say 'this is what we absolutely must do' instead of 'we think we should close schools, but we're not really sure.'
2Redefining Truth with Bayesian Principles
Truth should be understood as 'something confirmed to such an extent it would be rational to offer our provisional assent.' This 'small t' truth is provisional, meaning one should be prepared to change their mind. Bayesian reasoning, which involves assigning probabilities (1-99%) to claims and updating them with new evidence, is the rational approach.
I define truth as something confirmed to such an extent it would be rational to offer our provisional assent, that is to say truth of the small t provisional I could change my mind tomorrow in basian language.
3The Evolving Role of Religious Narratives
Instead of dismissing religious stories as 'myths' or 'fake,' Shermer now takes a more respectful approach, viewing them as 'great literature' that convey 'deeper truths' or 'mythological truths.' The literal accuracy of events (e.g., Jonah and the whale, Jesus's resurrection) is less important than the allegorical meanings related to redemption, forgiveness, or societal needs.
You can read biblical stories and religious literature and find some deeper truths in them. So instead of just saying these are just myths, fake stories, taking a more respectful approach... Was Jonah really swallowed by a great fish or whale and lived three days in there? No, you just you're missing the point of the story by asking if it really happened.
4The Deceptive Use of 'Just Asking Questions'
The phrase 'just asking questions' has been perverted from its original skeptical intent. When used by figures like Candace Owens or Tucker Carlson regarding historical events (e.g., the Holocaust), it's often a rhetorical tactic to push a predetermined agenda, not a genuine inquiry. These questions are designed to sow doubt and move the conversation in a specific ideological direction.
Of course asking questions is good, but what are they really up to? Are they really just asking questions? So, we actually call that jacking off. They're just jacking off. You know, they already have an agenda. The questions are all moving in a particular direction.
Bottom Line
AI Large Language Models (LLMs) are emerging as a viable first-pass fact-checking tool, capable of aggregating information from numerous sources to provide a consensus answer, though not perfectly reliable.
This suggests a future where personal digital assistants could automatically fact-check information in real-time, potentially mitigating the spread of misinformation at an individual level.
Develop more robust, unbiased, and transparent AI fact-checking tools that clearly cite sources and indicate confidence levels, integrating them into everyday digital interfaces.
The widespread belief in UAPs (Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) and alien visitation often taps into a 'deeper religious kind of impulse' – the desire for a more advanced, intelligent, and moral entity to 'rescue us' with free energy and advanced technology.
This highlights a psychological need for external salvation or solutions to complex global problems, which can make people susceptible to unsubstantiated claims about UAPs.
Address the underlying societal anxieties and existential questions that drive this 'religious impulse' through scientific literacy, critical thinking education, and fostering trust in human problem-solving capabilities.
Key Concepts
Bayesian Reasoning
A method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. In the context of truth, it means assigning a probability (e.g., 1-99%) to a claim and being prepared to change that probability as new data emerges, rather than holding absolute 0% or 100% certainty.
Default to Truth
A cognitive bias where individuals tend to believe what they are told by default, assuming information is true unless there is a strong reason to doubt it. This is often a practical necessity due to the sheer volume of information, but it makes people susceptible to misinformation if they don't apply critical thinking to important claims.
Lessons
- Apply Bayesian thinking to daily information: Instead of accepting or rejecting claims outright, assign probabilities and be open to updating your beliefs with new, credible evidence.
- Diversify your information diet: Actively seek out and cross-reference multiple independent journalistic sources and fact-checking sites, rather than relying on any single outlet.
- Scrutinize the intent behind questions: When someone says 'just asking questions,' evaluate if they are genuinely seeking truth or if their questions are designed to promote a specific, often conspiratorial, agenda.
Quotes
"Never assign a zero or 100% to anything because we're fallible. Who knows? You never know, you could be wrong."
"I don't trust any of them anymore without some factchecking."
"Truth is defined, I define truth as something confirmed to such an extent it would be rational to offer our provisional ascent, that is to say truth of the small t provisional I could change my mind tomorrow."
"You can read biblical stories and religious literature and find some deeper truths in them. So, was you know Jonah really swallowed by a great fish or whale and lived three days in there? No, you just you're missing the point of the story by asking if it really happened."
"What Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson, Daryl Cooper are up to, I don't know. I don't know what's worse. They they know it's bull and they're doing it for clicks and that's the financial model of their podcast or they don't know and they've never read much."
"The underlying current with the UAP people is they have this technology. They can do all this stuff that we can't do. That means free energy... it's going to save civilization the whole thing."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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