Interviews 02
Interviews 02
June 13, 2026

Seyed M. Marandi: BREAKING: US & Iran on Brink of FINAL Deal – Here’s What We Know

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Quick Read

Professor Seyed M. Marandi details Iran's perceived victory in recent conflicts with the US and Israel, asserting Iran's strengthened negotiating position and control over the Strait of Hormuz, making a final deal with the US more likely on Iran's terms.
Iran asserts it 'won the war' against US and Israel, inflicting heavy damage and maintaining military structures.
US withdrew new demands, returning to an earlier deal framework, signaling weakness.
Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is a key leverage point, with plans for 'fees' and restricted access for adversaries.

Summary

Professor Seyed M. Marandi provides an Iranian perspective on the recent US-Iran conflict and ongoing negotiations. He asserts that Iran decisively won recent military exchanges against both Israel and the United States, inflicting heavy damage and demonstrating resilience. Marandi claims that the US, facing internal and global economic pressures, withdrew additional demands and returned to an earlier deal framework, indicating a position of weakness. A key element of Iran's leverage is its control over the Strait of Hormuz, which it intends to maintain and potentially monetize through 'fees' for passage. The Iranian public, according to Marandi, feels confident and victorious, demanding that the government uphold its red lines, including Israel's full withdrawal from Lebanon and the release of Iranian assets. The deal, if finalized, will be an electronic signing, with further negotiations on nuclear and sanctions issues expected to be difficult for the US.
This analysis offers a critical, non-Western perspective on the US-Iran dynamic, highlighting a significant shift in regional power. If Iran's perceived victory and leverage are accurate, it suggests a new geopolitical reality where the US and its allies may be forced to negotiate from a weaker position, potentially reshaping global energy markets, regional security, and the future of international diplomacy with non-Western powers. Understanding this perspective is vital for comprehending the evolving Middle East landscape and the limitations of traditional coercive foreign policy.

Takeaways

  • Iran believes it decisively won recent military engagements against both Israel and the United States, inflicting heavy damage.
  • The US withdrew its 'extra demands' in negotiations, returning to an earlier deal framework, which Professor Marandi interprets as a sign of American weakness.
  • Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, intending to charge 'fees' for passage and restrict access for Israeli and American naval ships.
  • The Iranian public is confident about the future, believing they won the war and are resilient despite economic challenges.
  • A potential deal will involve electronic signatures, not a physical meeting, and will require Israel to withdraw completely from occupied Lebanese territories.
  • Iran's enrichment of uranium to 60% was a strategic leverage point, and any de-enrichment will occur within Iran's facilities, requiring US engagement with Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

Insights

1Iran's Perceived Victory in Recent Conflicts

Professor Marandi asserts that Iran decisively won recent military engagements against both Israel and the United States. He claims Iran inflicted heavy damage on US assets and Israeli infrastructure, while its own key military structures and underground bases remained intact. This perceived victory has significantly boosted Iranian public confidence.

Marandi states, 'Iran won the war and of course preserved the trade of hormones and its key military structures are very much intact.' He also notes, 'Iran inflicted huge damage on US assets across it destroyed all their bases.'

2US Withdrawal of Demands and Trump's Posturing

According to Marandi, the US introduced new demands in deal negotiations but later withdrew them after Iran's firm refusal and retaliatory strikes. He suggests Trump's subsequent aggressive rhetoric ('I'm going to destroy Iran') was an attempt to save face and appear strong after backing down at the negotiating table.

Marandi explains, 'Then the Americans put in new demands and the Iranians said, 'We're not touching this.'... the Katari delegation came to Iran and they informed the Iranians that those extra demands they were withdrawn.' He adds, 'Trump withdrew those demands, but he didn't want to look weak. So he went came in and said, 'I'm going to destroy Iran.''

3Strait of Hormuz as Iran's Primary Leverage

Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is presented as its most significant leverage in negotiations. Marandi states that Iran will continue to control the strait, potentially charging 'environmental' or 'security' fees for passage and preventing adversary ships (e.g., Israeli, US naval) from passing through.

Marandi emphasizes, 'Iran controls the straight. So the Americans, if they don't want their economy to crash, they should they should start thinking about, you know, uh, stopping Netanyahu from slaughtering all those kids.' He also mentions, 'Iranians will prevent that sort of thing. So, it'll be controlled to make sure that the enemy doesn't militarize the Persian Gulf again and to make it very costly for it to bring anything to those bases.'

4Iranian Public's Confidence and Resistance

The speaker notes a significant psychological shift within Iranian society, where people are no longer afraid of the United States and are confident in their nation's ability to fight back. This newfound confidence stems from Iran's perceived military successes and resilience against sanctions and attacks.

Marandi states, 'This war was a huge change for the Iranian people psychologically because they thought that the United States is not anymore the United States it was before the war started. They know their capabilities. They're more confident.'

5New Regional Equation: End of Impunity

The podcast highlights a 'new era' in West Asia where the United States and Israel can no longer act with impunity. Iran's direct retaliatory strikes against Israel and the US have established a new calculation, demonstrating that attacks will be met with a strong response, fundamentally altering regional power dynamics.

The host states, 'Those days are gone. This is the new equation in the Middle East.' Marandi adds, 'Israel has to understand that they cannot because for decade or I would say for two decades three decades they're attacking other countries destroying killing people without having any sort of response.'

Bottom Line

Iran's strategy of enriching uranium to 60% was purely for leverage, not a direct pursuit of nuclear weapons, and any de-enrichment will occur on Iranian soil, requiring US engagement with Iran's nuclear facilities.

So What?

This implies that Iran views its nuclear program as a strategic tool for negotiation and deterrence, rather than an immediate weaponization goal. It also means that any future 'deal' will inherently legitimize some level of Iranian enrichment capacity, a significant concession from the US perspective.

Impact

For international diplomats, understanding this 'leverage' mindset could inform future negotiation strategies with other nations using similar tactics. For defense analysts, it highlights the dual-use nature of nuclear programs as both a potential threat and a diplomatic asset.

Iran does not negotiate with the GCC as a bloc but conducts one-on-one negotiations, recognizing significant differences in their geopolitical stances and capabilities, with some countries like Oman being 'smart' and others 'fools'.

So What?

This fragmented approach to regional diplomacy allows Iran to exploit divisions and tailor its engagement, preventing a unified front against its interests. It underscores the internal complexities and lack of cohesion within the GCC.

Impact

For regional strategists, this suggests that fostering greater unity within the GCC or understanding individual member states' vulnerabilities and interests is crucial for effective counter-balancing Iran's influence. For businesses, understanding these bilateral relationships could inform investment and partnership decisions in the Gulf.

Lessons

  • Recognize Iran's strategic use of military action and economic leverage (like the Strait of Hormuz) to dictate terms in international negotiations.
  • Analyze the psychological impact of perceived victories on a nation's resolve and public confidence, as it can significantly alter geopolitical dynamics.
  • Understand that 'deals' with entities like the US may be viewed as temporary or tactical by adversaries, contingent on ongoing compliance and the maintenance of leverage.

Quotes

"

"If the Americans have facilitated two ships, three ships, 10 ships, or 100 ships or 200 ships, they they all have names. They could say, 'Well, yes, so and so ship which we've helped escape through the straight of hormones. It is now on its way to such and such port in such and such country.' And but they won't do that because they know it's fake."

Professor Seyed M. Marandi
"

"So basically we went back to where we were 2 3 weeks ago. In other words the Americans tried to impose something new. The Iranians said no. The Americans applied pressure through the through the Zionist regime, through their assault on the straight of hormones and on islands and on the Iranian mainland and they got no results."

Professor Seyed M. Marandi
"

"Trump withdrew those demands, but he didn't want to look weak. So he went came in and said, 'I'm going to destroy Iran.' So that after the attack whatever deal come potentially comes out he'll say I got it from a position of strength and they are weak the Iranians were weak and that of course didn't work."

Professor Seyed M. Marandi
"

"Iran won the war and of course preserved the trade of hormones and its key military structures are very much intact. Those underground bases which host factories which host lots of Iran's air force, air defenses."

Professor Seyed M. Marandi
"

"The issue for Iran is the empire. The empire is the root of the of our of our problem in this part of the world. When the empire is gone, many things will improve."

Professor Seyed M. Marandi

Q&A

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