John Helmer: Blood, Money, and the TRUMP DYNASTY - Iran Shows How to FIGHT
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz is failing, with Chinese tankers defying it and China's Defense Ministry openly opposing it.
- ❖Trump's negotiator, Vance, used the Iran talks to position himself politically, signaling disloyalty to the 'Trump team' while avoiding blame for potential military escalation.
- ❖Trump's ambition for a dynastic succession (Donald Trump Jr. or Eric Trump) is driving his political calculations, especially given his legal vulnerabilities.
- ❖An unprecedented 'Jews vs. Christians' conflict is emerging in US politics, triggered by Trump's attacks on the Pope and his alignment with Israeli maximalist war aims against Iran.
- ❖Iran refuses US 'bribes' like sharing the Hormuz toll, due to US assassination programs, contrasting with Arab states that historically pay such bribes.
- ❖Russia is offering to store Iran's highly enriched uranium as a potential solution to nuclear enrichment concerns, outside IAEA control.
- ❖GCC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, are increasingly nervous about their security and the loss of US protection, leading them to seek accommodation with Iran and engage with China.
- ❖Europe, exemplified by Spain and Italy, is showing signs of distancing itself from US/Israeli policies in the Middle East, but remains committed to NATO's anti-Russia stance.
Insights
1US Blockade on Hormuz Fails to Deter China and Iran
The US attempt to impose a blockade on Iranian ports via the Strait of Hormuz has been ineffective. China's Ministry of Defense declared it would not respect the blockade, and Chinese tankers, some under US sanctions, have already passed through. This indicates a significant challenge to US 'escalation control' and its ability to enforce unilateral sanctions.
China's Ministry of Defense statement, two shadow fleet tankers passing through Hormuz (, , )
2Trump's Iran Policy Driven by Domestic Political Survival and Dynastic Ambition
Trump's actions regarding Iran, including negotiation tactics and potential military escalation, are interpreted as deeply rooted in US domestic politics. His envoy Vance's behavior in negotiations, including calls to Netanyahu, is seen as a move to protect his own political future and avoid blame for escalation, while Trump himself is focused on securing a dynastic succession (e.g., Donald Trump Jr.) to protect his fortune and avoid criminal charges.
Vance's telephone calls and walkout (), Trump's constitutional difficulties in running again (), polling data on Vance vs. Trump Jr. (), Trump's need for family succession ().
3Emergence of a 'Jews vs. Christians' Divide in US Politics
Trump's unprecedented attack on Pope Leo XIV and the Catholic community, coupled with the influence of 'Jewish' (Israeli-aligned) advisors pushing for maximalist war aims against Iran, has provoked a significant religious-political divide in the US. This conflict, between 70 million Catholics and 7 million Jews (more than half of whom are Democrat), is seen as a serious deterioration of political civilization.
Trump's attack on Pope Leo XIV (), 70 million Catholics vs. 7 million Jews in the US (), Israeli-aligned advisors pushing for war (), Maloney's criticism of Trump ().
4Iran Refuses US 'Bribes' and Exposes Weakness of Arab Regimes
Iran has rejected US proposals to share the Hormuz toll, viewing it as a 'bribe' similar to other Trump-devised schemes (e.g., Gaza framework, Russian asset unfreezing). This refusal stems from the US/Israeli assassination programs against Iranians. Concurrently, Iran's military capabilities have exposed the vulnerability of US base protection for GCC regimes, leading to increased nervousness and a search for new accommodations with Iran.
Trump's 'bribe' idea for Hormuz toll (), parallels with Gaza and Russian asset schemes (), Iranian refusal due to assassinations (), Saudi Arabia inviting Pakistani troops (), Yanboo pipeline attacks ().
Bottom Line
Iran's successful defiance of US blockades and its ability to maintain escalation control could serve as a 'lesson' for Russia on how to counter US economic and military pressure without resorting to 'bribes'.
This suggests a potential shift in how non-Western powers approach US sanctions and military threats, possibly leading to more coordinated or independent strategies to circumvent American influence.
For nations seeking to reduce reliance on the US-dominated financial and security architecture, Iran's model offers a blueprint for resistance and the development of alternative trade and security frameworks, potentially accelerating de-dollarization and multi-polar world order.
Opportunities
Hormuz Toll Consortium (US-Iranian)
A proposed joint venture, framed as a 'bribe' by Trump, where the US and Iran would share the toll revenue from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This could generate '40-50 billion dollars a year' but is currently rejected by Iran due to political assassinations.
Key Concepts
Dynastic Political Ambition
The idea that a political leader's actions are primarily driven by a desire to establish or maintain a family's hold on power, influencing foreign policy decisions to secure domestic political standing and succession.
The Bribe Framework in Foreign Policy
A transactional approach to international relations where a powerful state attempts to secure compliance or cooperation from other nations by offering financial incentives or shares in lucrative ventures, often seen as a shakedown or extortion.
Lessons
- Monitor US domestic political developments, especially those concerning Trump's family and religious-political divides, as they are key drivers of US foreign policy decisions.
- Evaluate the long-term viability of US-led blockades and sanctions, recognizing that powers like China and Iran are actively developing strategies to defy and circumvent them.
- Consider the shifting geopolitical landscape where traditional US 'protectorates' (e.g., GCC countries) are seeking alternative security arrangements and accommodations with regional powers like Iran and global powers like China.
Notable Moments
China's explicit defiance of the US blockade on Iran, with its Defense Ministry statement and tankers passing through Hormuz.
This marks a clear challenge to US unilateral power and sets a precedent for other nations to disregard US sanctions, impacting global trade and energy markets.
Trump's attack on Pope Leo XIV and the subsequent political damage, highlighting an unprecedented religious-political conflict in the US.
This reveals a deep, potentially destabilizing, internal conflict within the US that could influence future elections and foreign policy, particularly concerning alliances and regional conflicts.
Italy's suspension of its defense agreement with Israel.
This indicates a growing European discomfort and potential shift away from unconditional support for Israel, driven by events like the 'genocide' in Gaza, which could alter regional alliances and diplomatic pressures.
Quotes
"The world is now facing a contest between justice and power. The way a country treats international law is its vision of order, values and responsibility, principled nations that uphold justice and are willing to stand on the right side of history."
"Trump having the ambition to run again, which is constitutionally impossible to difficult, can only trust his family. That's what this means."
"This is Trump doing something no president of the United States ever did before: attacking 70 million Catholic believers."
"I don't think Trump is mad. I don't think he doesn't know what he's doing. I do think he's impulsive and he's encouraged by some advisers hither too anonymous."
"Iran has found the way to fight back at this and that's very important. But it's very important that the Iranian side understand what the Americans are doing must be interpreted as political domestic political translates into votes."
"You can't keep a bribe if you're dead. If the person who paid the bribe has killed your brother, your o officer, the American assassination program, the Israeli assassination program makes it impossible, Trump doesn't understand this, to get the Iranians to pay bribes."
Q&A
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