Trump Is Drowning—And There’s Nothing the GOP Can Do About It (w/ John Heilemann) | Bulwark Podcast
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Donald Trump's political approval is in an irreversible decline, akin to 'post-Katrina Bush,' with no clear path for recovery.
- ❖The Iran war is a strategic loss for the US, empowering Iran and leading to global economic chaos, particularly an impending oil shock.
- ❖Trump's administration is weaponizing the DOJ for political retribution, exemplified by the 'ludicrous' indictment of James Comey over a seashell meme.
- ❖Corporate media and Hollywood are exhibiting 'political cowardice,' actively avoiding Trump-adjacent content due to fear of regulatory or legal threats.
- ❖YouTube's growth is fueled by its willingness to host controversial political content, a strategy traditional streaming platforms are avoiding to their commercial detriment.
- ❖Traditional political polling has been systematically flawed since 2016, making actual election results a more reliable indicator of voter sentiment.
- ❖Barney Frank's critique of the 'far-left agenda' and identity politics reflects a long-standing concern among some progressive figures about political strategy.
Insights
1Trump's Irreversible Political Decline and the Iran War's Strategic Failure
John Heilemann asserts that Donald Trump's political standing has reached a point of no return, comparing it to George W. Bush after Hurricane Katrina. His approval ratings are in a 'terminal decline,' dropping significantly. This is largely attributed to the ongoing Iran war, which is framed as a strategic loss for the U.S., empowering Iran, entrenching its radical regime, and leading to global economic instability, particularly an impending oil shock. The financial cost of the war is estimated at $25 billion, with no clear 'win' for the U.S.
Heilemann states, 'you're underwater now forever, dude. That's it.' () and 'what's going to turn things around for Donald Trump and for the Republican party between now and say the midterms, nothing.' (). He cites a poll showing Trump's approval down from -15 to -22 in two months (). He also details the strategic losses in Iran, noting Iran's increased power, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the regime's radicalization ().
2Weaponization of DOJ and Incompetent Retribution
The Trump administration is accused of weaponizing the Department of Justice for political retribution, exemplified by the 'ludicrous' indictment of former FBI Director James Comey. The charge, based on an Instagram post of seashells with a restaurant term '8647' (meaning 'kill this from the menu'), is seen as a transparently vindictive and incompetent attempt to target a political foe. The nine-month delay in bringing charges for an alleged 'threat to kill the president' further underscores the political, rather than legal, motivation.
Tim Miller describes Comey's indictment as 'the fourth time with James Comey' () over a 'boomer resist meme' (). Heilemann calls the charge 'ludicrous' and notes the 'incredibly incompetent' nature of the Trump legal team (). He highlights the absurdity of a nine-month investigation for an alleged presidential threat, stating, 'If the guy is seriously intending to kill the president, it would be malpractice to let him wander free for almost a year.' ().
3Media's 'Chilling Effect' and Self-Censorship
Despite the Trump administration's legal incompetence in prosecuting political foes, a 'chilling effect' has spread across corporate media, particularly in Hollywood. Major streaming companies like Amazon, Apple, and Netflix are actively avoiding any 'Trump adjacent' or politically topical programming to prevent incurring the administration's wrath, fearing financial and regulatory risks. This self-censorship is seen as a 'political cowardice' and an 'economic and business model mistake,' especially when contrasted with YouTube's success.
Heilemann observes that 'the appetite for doing things that could incur the wrath of Donald Trump is I would say not only not greater but less' (). He states, 'there is less than zero appetite for anything that would be programming of a topical contemporary nature that might in one way or the other brush up against the Trump administration' (). He explicitly mentions the 'financial risk, the regulatory risk' as reasons for this avoidance ().
4YouTube's Unconventional Growth Strategy vs. Traditional Streaming
YouTube is identified as the only video platform experiencing significant growth, becoming the 'most powerful video platform in the world.' This growth is attributed to its willingness to host diverse and often controversial political content, from the far-left to the far-right, with minimal content moderation. In contrast, traditional streaming services are 'terrified' of YouTube's rise but are unwilling to embrace similar content strategies, thereby 'shortcircuiting their own commercial interests' due to political timidity.
Heilemann states, 'there's one platform that's that's that's growing fast and is now the most powerful video platform in the world. That's YouTube' (). He notes YouTube's attitude: 'we're not going to be afraid of political content. We're not going to be afraid of controversial content. We're going to let all these flowers boom bloom' (). He contrasts this with other platforms, saying, 'they're avoiding the thing that's actually really at of what's generating the actual mojo at YouTube' ().
Bottom Line
The 'dear leader' phenomenon, where a political figure seeks to emblazon their image on national symbols, is a clear indicator of a shift towards despotic tendencies, not merely a 'troll' of opponents.
This signifies a deeper, more concerning ideological shift within the US political landscape, moving away from venerating institutions towards a cult of personality, eroding democratic norms.
Analysts should focus on identifying and documenting these symbolic shifts as early warning signs of authoritarian creep, rather than dismissing them as mere political stunts, to better inform public discourse and counter narratives.
The persistent failure of political polling since 2016, despite repeated acknowledgments of its 'broken' state, indicates a systemic issue in how political analysis is conducted and consumed.
Reliance on flawed polling data can lead to inaccurate predictions, misallocation of campaign resources, and a distorted public understanding of political realities, potentially fostering complacency or undue alarm.
Political strategists and media outlets should prioritize 'actual election performance' data over traditional polls, investing in more robust, real-time electoral analysis and encouraging a more nuanced public interpretation of political trends.
Lessons
- For media executives: Re-evaluate content strategies to determine if fear of political retribution is hindering commercially viable and audience-engaging political programming, potentially missing out on 'YouTube juice'.
- For political analysts: Shift focus from traditional polling to 'actual performance in actual elections' over recent cycles to gain a more accurate understanding of voter sentiment and potential 'wave' dynamics.
- For citizens: Be critically aware of attempts to personalize national symbols (e.g., presidential faces on passports) as potential indicators of authoritarian tendencies, and scrutinize claims of political threats used for retribution.
Quotes
"He wants to have his face on everything. He wants to have his face on the money. He wants to have his face on the buildings. He wants to have a face on the on the new monuments he's building for himself."
"I'm kind of proud I'm from a place where we where if you think about it, you don't don't usually think about it quite this way, but you think, oh, what we veterate is the institution, right? It's the presidency, not the president."
"It's not just that we're like those other countries, but that you know that you see it happening in front of you. This is how it happens, right? Which is the the president just starts going, I'm putting my name on more and more [__] I'm putting my face on more and more [__] and you're just going to get so used to it that you're going to eventually go, 'H, okay, whatever.'"
"The American electorate will will be like we don't want a celebrity as president. That was the premise of that, right? So, first of all, not only were they wrong, but second of all, like now you look at it now, it's like, how could you have ever thought that?"
"The thing about this about the Arab oil desperates is that they are largely anonymous. They don't really they don't want their they don't want their names and faces on money... Trump is both he's like he behaves like a like a like a Middle Eastern uh oil uh autocrat desperate whatever oligarch but also wants to be like you know like Taylor Swift also wants to be, you know, Taylor Swifty and also wants to be on everything and be fully acknowledged that he is who he is."
"I think there's been significant damage done to the fabric of American democracy and the institutions that and norms that support it. There's going to have to be a serious effort to in a concerted genuine way uh to do a a a largecale broad democratic uh revival uh reconstruction effort."
Q&A
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