Elijah Magnier: Iran & U.S. Rush to Doha as Deal Teeters on the Brink
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The U.S. is accused of violating Paragraphs 1, 2, 5, and 13 of the MOU with Iran, particularly regarding military operations and control over the Strait of Hormuz.
- ❖Iran asserts its sole authority, in coordination with Oman, over the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting U.S. interference in commercial vessel passage.
- ❖The U.S. is attempting to dismantle Iran's geopolitical leverage, including its influence in Lebanon and control over strategic waterways.
- ❖The release of Iran's frozen assets and promised $300 billion in compensation from Gulf countries are being manipulated or denied by the U.S.
- ❖The Lebanon-Israel agreement, brokered by the U.S., is widely opposed within Lebanon by Shia, Druze, and some Christian factions, making its implementation impossible.
- ❖The Lebanese President is accused of violating national law by signing an agreement that legitimizes Israel, considered an enemy state.
- ❖U.S. military aid to Lebanon is framed as a tool to enable the Lebanese army to fight its own people, not Israel, and is subject to Israeli veto over officers and weapons.
- ❖Hezbollah's financial support from Iran is primarily cash-based, rendering attempts to financially strangle the group through official channels ineffective and instead punishing the general population.
- ❖Israel's continued occupation of Lebanese territory and its 'Greater Israel' ambitions directly contradict calls for Hezbollah's disarmament.
Insights
1U.S. Violations of Iran-U.S. MOU and Bad Faith Negotiations
Elijah Magnier asserts that the United States has violated several key paragraphs of the MOU with Iran. Specifically, Paragraph 5, which grants Iran the responsibility for safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz, is being undermined by U.S. interference. Paragraph 1, mandating the termination of military operations, was violated by U.S. attacks on Iranian objectives. Paragraph 2, requiring mutual respect for sovereignty, is ignored by U.S. involvement in the Strait of Hormuz, an Iran-Oman affair. Magnier suggests the U.S. is using negotiations to gain time, manipulate oil prices, and dismantle Iran's leverage, including controlling the release of Iran's frozen assets and dictating how Iran spends its own money.
U.S. interference in Strait of Hormuz management (), U.S. firing against Iranian objectives triggering retaliation (), U.S. attempts to enlarge Omani passage to exclude Iran (), Qatar instructed to release only $6 billion of $12 billion, with U.S. control over spending (), Gulf countries unaware of $300 billion compensation (), U.S. aims to fill strategic oil reserves ().
2Lebanon-Israel Agreement: A Humiliation and Legal Invalidity
Magnier describes the U.S.-brokered agreement between Lebanon and Israel as a 'humiliation' for Lebanon, designed to legitimize Israeli occupation and disarm Hezbollah. He argues the agreement is legally invalid because the Lebanese President violated the criminal code (which considers Israel an enemy) and the constitution by signing it without proper parliamentary or cabinet approval. The agreement faces overwhelming opposition from the Shia majority, Druze, and various Christian groups, making its implementation impossible. It also demands Israeli verification of Hezbollah's weapons by door-to-door searches in South Lebanon and allows Israel to dictate the Lebanese army's presence and armaments in its own territory.
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Bere's opposition (), majority opposition from Shia, Druze, Christians (), Lebanese army refusal to clash with people (), Israeli demand for door-to-door verification (), agreement lacks Israeli withdrawal timetable (), 60 villages and 55,000 people remain homeless (), President violated criminal code 27375 (), sectarian imbalance in cabinet votes ().
3U.S. Military Aid to Lebanon and Threat of Foreign Intervention
The U.S. military aid provided to Lebanon is intended for the Lebanese army to fight its own people, not Israel, as explicitly stated by U.S. envoy Thomas Barak. This aid comes with conditions, including an Israeli veto over Lebanese army officers and the types of weapons allowed in South Lebanon. The agreement also controversially grants the Lebanese President the right to invite foreign forces to implement the MOU, a move with historical precedents of negative outcomes for Lebanon (e.g., U.S. Marines in 1958, Syrian intervention in 1976, Israeli intervention in 1982). Magnier identifies Syria as the most likely foreign force to intervene, potentially with Turkish approval, but notes the high risk of such an action.
Thomas Barak's statement on arming Lebanese army to fight its own people (), Israeli dictation of Lebanese army weapons in South Lebanon (), U.S./Israel veto power over Lebanese army officers (), President's right to ask for foreign forces (), historical examples of foreign interventions in Lebanon (), Syria as potential intervener ().
Lessons
- Policymakers should scrutinize the implementation and adherence to international agreements, particularly when one party is perceived to be negotiating in bad faith or actively undermining clauses.
- Analysts of Middle Eastern geopolitics must consider the internal political dynamics and public sentiment within nations like Lebanon, as these can significantly impact the viability and enforceability of international agreements.
- Businesses operating in or relying on stability in the Middle East should factor in the high risk of renewed conflict stemming from unresolved disputes over strategic waterways and territorial sovereignty, as highlighted by the violations of the Iran-U.S. MOU and the contentious Lebanon-Israel agreement.
Quotes
"The paragraph five it says upon the signing Iran will make arrangement. It is Iran that makes the arrangement, not the US."
"The Americans declare immediate and permanent ter termination of all military operations on all front which means why the Americans are firing against Iranian objectives in Iran and that triggered the Iranian retaliation."
"The Lebanese army said, 'I will not clash with the people and I am not going to become a police for the Israelis'."
"He said we are arming the Lebanese army to fight its own people. These are his word they are on YouTube on Google you can find it. He said we are not arming the Lebanese army to fight Israel. We aring to fight its own people."
"How can you ask to eliminate the resistance in Lebanon when you have a prime minister of Israel saying my plan to occupy part of your country?"
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