Alex Krainer: This Changes Everything: A Massive Military Comeback Is Underway
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Ukraine's defeat is inevitable, with current Western support prolonging demilitarization.
- ❖European leaders are changing their stance on Russia under US pressure, possibly due to corruption leverage.
- ❖The US aims to dismantle NATO and the EU, fostering a new security architecture with Russia.
- ❖Trump's public rhetoric on Israel and Iran masks a strategy for US-Iran engagement and reduced Israeli influence.
- ❖BRICS nations are building a collective security framework to resist Western 'monoculture' imposition.
Insights
1Ukraine's Imminent Defeat and Western Obstruction
The Ukraine conflict is moving towards Ukraine's final defeat. Current Western actions, including drone attacks and support for 'asymmetric warfare,' are desperate attempts to derail a Russian victory and prevent cooperation between the US (under Trump) and Russia. These actions are framed as 'scops' designed to prevent a peace settlement that would signify a defeat for the 'transatlantic Anglo-American NATO strategy' to destroy Russia.
Guest states, 'we're going rapidly towards Ukraine's final defeat,' and 'everything that we see now happening are desperate attempts to derail Russian victory.' Mentions New York Times piece insinuating Trump's involvement in attacks to derail US-Russia cooperation. ()
2US Pressure Reshaping European Leadership Rhetoric
Key European leaders, previously 'war hawks' like Emmanuel Macron, Finnish President Alex Stubb, and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, have dramatically shifted their rhetoric regarding Russia. They now advocate for dialogue and acknowledge Russian security concerns, aligning with the US approach. This shift is attributed to pressure from the American administration, potentially leveraging information from corruption investigations in Ukraine involving 'tens of billions of US dollars' of laundered American taxpayer money.
Macron, who 'was ready to send troops to Ukraine,' now says 'Russia is not an enemy' and 'we have to talk to the Russians.' Stubb and Pistorius made similar statements. Guest connects this to 'corruption investigations in Ukraine' and 'tens of billions of US dollars of American taxpayer money that got laundered somewhere.' ()
3US Strategy to Dismantle EU and NATO
The ultimate objective of the US and Russia is to completely change the European security architecture, potentially leading to the disintegration of NATO and the European Union. The US National Security Strategy reportedly includes a passage indicating intent to 'push back against the current direction of the development of European Union,' suggesting active opposition to EU developments and support for sovereigntist movements within Europe.
Guest states, 'ultimate objective that the Americans and the Russians have is to completely change the security architecture on the European continent,' leading to 'disintegration of NATO and the disintegration of the European Union.' Cites US National Security Strategy document. ()
4Europe's Authoritarian Drift and Weaponized Sanctions
The ruling establishments in the EU and key European governments are driving towards an authoritarian bloc, repressing political opposition and implementing harsh censorship to control narratives. The case of Colonel Jacques Baud illustrates a 'matrix' where individuals can be socio-economically 'death sentenced' without judicial process or recourse, becoming a burden on their support networks. This system punishes individuals and their dependents based on arbitrary listing by 'nameless bureaucrats.'
Guest states European establishments are 'definitely driving in the authoritarian direction,' wanting to create 'an authoritarian block.' Describes Colonel Baud's case as creating a 'matrix' to 'disenfranchise any individual' without 'judicial process, any due process,' resulting in a 'socioeconomic death sentence.' ()
5Trump's Covert Middle East Realignment
Despite public rhetoric, Trump's Middle East policy aims for constructive engagement with Iran and a strategic distancing from Israel. His public statements about Israel and attacking Iran are for his pro-Zionist voter base. The 'fake war' against Iran (pre-announced attacks, no casualties) indicates a desire to negotiate. Trump has stated he does not seek regime change in Iran and his administration's actions in Syria have reportedly upset Israelis. The US intelligence community has concluded that Israeli interests are 'antithetical' to US interests in the region.
Guest states Trump 'does not like Benjamin Netanyahu' and Netanyahu congratulated Biden on 'stolen election.' Claims Trump's statements on Israel are for 'constituents.' Describes the 'fake war' against Iran (). Mentions Trump's 'different policy towards Iran' and 'deterioration of the relationship between the United States and Israel.' Cites 2012 US intelligence community report on Israeli interests being 'antithetical' to US interests. ()
6BRICS Building Global Security Architecture
BRICS nations are moving to establish a collective security architecture that extends beyond the Eurasian continent (Shanghai Cooperation Organization - SCO) to include Africa and South America. This is a response to the 'rules-based international order' which seeks to impose a 'monoculture' of trade terms, currencies, social policies (e.g., LGBT parades, climate religion), and healthcare (e.g., vaccinations). The goal is to provide support and plug vulnerabilities for sovereign nations in the Global South against destabilizing actions by Western interests, such as mercenaries, terror organizations, or special forces.
Guest states, 'SEO is Eurasian continent but the vulnerabilities...exist in South America, they exist in Africa.' Argues for 'collective security architecture' to 'give countries like Burkina Faso and Chad and Sudan and Nijair...support.' Describes the 'rules-based global order's' imposition of 'monoculture type development' and BRICS' resistance. ()
Bottom Line
Russia may strategically prefer the Ukraine conflict to continue to fully demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, rather than accepting an immediate ceasefire that allows Ukrainian and NATO forces to regroup and rearm.
This suggests that Russia's battlefield objectives extend beyond territorial gains to the complete destruction of Ukraine's military potential. It implies that Western military aid, while intended to support Ukraine, might inadvertently be contributing to Russia's long-term goal of attrition.
Analysts should consider Russia's long-term demilitarization goals when assessing the effectiveness of Western aid and potential peace negotiations, rather than solely focusing on territorial shifts. This perspective could inform different diplomatic strategies or aid packages.
Trump's choice of Jared Kushner and Witkov for sensitive negotiations with Russia, instead of established diplomats like Lavrov or even figures like JD Vance, is driven by a need for 'truthful liaison' and trust amidst internal opposition and media demonization.
This highlights the deep distrust within the US political establishment and the perceived need for a parallel, trusted channel for critical foreign policy initiatives. It suggests that official channels are seen as compromised or prone to sabotage.
When analyzing US foreign policy, look beyond official diplomatic appointments and public statements to identify informal or highly trusted channels that may be driving actual policy. Understanding these 'shadow' negotiations can provide a more accurate picture of strategic intent.
Key Concepts
Rules-Based Global Order vs. Sovereign Multipolarity
This model frames the current global conflict as a clash between an established 'rules-based international order' (seen as a reincarnation of the British Empire, driven by globalist elites) and a rising 'multipolar' system where sovereign nations seek to trade and develop on their own terms, free from external imposition.
Asymmetric Warfare & Narrative Control
This model highlights the use of non-conventional tactics (terrorism, drones, cyberattacks, propaganda, censorship, economic sanctions) to achieve strategic objectives, particularly to prevent peace, destabilize adversaries, or control public perception when direct military confrontation is undesirable or unwinnable. It also includes the weaponization of financial systems to 'disenfranchise' individuals without due process.
Lessons
- Monitor shifts in rhetoric from European leaders for signs of alignment with US policy, particularly regarding Russia and the future of NATO/EU.
- Analyze US national security documents and statements for explicit or implicit intentions to reshape international alliances and institutions, especially concerning the EU.
- Pay attention to the development of BRICS' collective security initiatives and their expansion into the Global South as a counter-balance to existing global orders.
- Examine US Middle East policy for subtle indications of rapprochement with Iran and a re-evaluation of unconditional support for Israel, beyond public pronouncements.
- Be aware of the potential for 'socioeconomic death sentences' through non-judicial sanctions and censorship in Europe, and advocate for due process protections.
Quotes
"Peace in Ukraine is a defeat of this transatlantic Anglo-American NATO strategy of attempting to destroy Russia. They lost. They understand that they lost, but they need a piece that will preserve their beach head."
"It appears that Emanuel Macron has come on board with the American approach."
"The ultimate objective that the Americans and the Russians have is to completely change the security architecture on the European continent. And so I I think that if there if they are successful, we we're probably going to see a disintegration of NATO and the disintegration of the European Union."
"The ruling establishments that is in charge in in in the European Union and in the governments of Germany, France and u and Great Britain, they're definitely driving in the authoritarian direction. They want to create Europe as an as an authoritarian block."
"This is a socioeconomic death sentence only it's worse because you know if they put you in prison or or they or they they killed you disappear and in disappearing you're no longer a burden on anybody if they sanction you, you become a burden on exactly the people who are your uh social support network and you know the punishment extends to your dependence."
"For as long as the Ukrainians are fighting, the Russians are moving towards their objective."
"If I were a Zionist, I wouldn't trust Trump at all."
"If you take a coldblooded analysis Israel is all downside for the United States."
Q&A
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