Pepe Escobar: Israel Just Got Outplayed - The MoU That 'Beat' Israel Where It Hurts
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Iran-US MOU is primarily a US attempt to buy time and mitigate a severe oil supply deficit and domestic political pressure.
- ❖Iran's demands, including sanctions relief and return of $12 billion, were largely accepted, signaling a strategic victory for Tehran.
- ❖Pakistan, with China's backing, played a pivotal role in mediating the MOU, leveraging its relationships with both Iran and the US.
- ❖Israel's attempts to derail the MOU through military action in Lebanon were met with an immediate, credible threat of Iranian retaliation against Israel itself.
Bottom Line
A critical, undisclosed risk assessment indicated that by mid-August, the US would face an emergency level oil shortage, unable to use strategic reserves, leading to a global crisis. This dire economic forecast, rather than geopolitical pressure, was the primary driver for Trump to sign the MOU.
This suggests that the US's foreign policy decisions, particularly regarding Iran, are heavily influenced by internal economic vulnerabilities and the need to stabilize energy markets, rather than purely strategic or military considerations.
Nations capable of influencing global energy supply or mediating energy agreements (like Pakistan/China) gain significant leverage over US policy, creating opportunities for new diplomatic and economic alignments that challenge traditional Western dominance.
As the US faces strategic defeat in West Asia, it is likely to seek diversions in its 'backyard,' with Cuba identified as the number one candidate for renewed US intervention or destabilization efforts.
This implies that a perceived loss of influence in one region could directly lead to increased aggression or covert operations in another, particularly against long-standing adversaries. It highlights the interconnectedness of global geopolitical pressure points.
For Russia and China, understanding this potential shift allows for pre-emptive measures to support Cuba and other Latin American nations, potentially expanding their influence in the Western Hemisphere and further challenging US hegemony.
Lessons
- Monitor developments in US-Iran relations, particularly regarding the promised sanctions relief and return of Iranian funds, as their fulfillment (or lack thereof) will indicate the true commitment to the MOU.
- Observe the geopolitical roles of Pakistan and China in West Asia, as their successful mediation of the Iran-US MOU positions them as significant power brokers in regional security architecture.
- Pay close attention to US foreign policy shifts towards Latin America, especially Cuba, as a potential indicator of diversionary tactics following strategic setbacks in other regions.
Quotes
"This is a play for time. Trump has a three-stage strategy to sell this MOU. Number one, he's going to say that the free flow of oil in the Strait of Hormuz is back thanks to him."
"If Israel continues to bomb Dahiyeh, we are ready to start bombing Israel now. Now means literally now. We have our finger on the trigger and we have the list of targets already."
"The big big picture, the big plan includes subduing Iran, regime change, controlling the Strait of Hormuz, controlling energy flowing from Iran, and most of all, imposing the petrodollar on Iran and everybody else."
"He got the numbers and he said in 2 months everybody is totally [expletive]. The global economy is [expletive]. So this means you have to restart the flow of oil like yesterday. And that would be the main reason for the MOU."
"Lebanon is more important than one of the provinces of Iran, I would say. This is how important is Lebanon for Iran."
"The key point is that the US is not going to be part of the game anymore, essentially. And that's that's well. For them is is going to be impossible for them to admit it."
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