Primary Preview; UAW Strike In Michigan w/ Daniel Nichanian, Josh Jager | MR Live
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Progressive candidates are experiencing a resurgence in Democratic primaries, leveraging public sentiment against APAC money.
- ❖The Democratic consultant class is financially threatened by grassroots, people-powered campaigns that bypass traditional ad buys and mailers.
- ❖California's top-two primary system forces strategic voting, sometimes leading voters to prioritize shutting out a party over ideological alignment.
- ❖New Jersey's strong party machine is weakening, creating opportunities for progressive insurgent candidates.
- ❖UAW Local 2093 workers at American Axle (Dauch Corporation) went on strike after 18 years of wage stagnation, having had their pay cut in half during the 2008 financial crisis.
- ❖American Axle has made over $8 billion in profits in the last decade, while workers' top wages have only increased by $4/hour, falling significantly behind inflation.
- ❖Picket line safety is a major concern, with reports of contractors hitting striking workers with vehicles.
Insights
1Progressive Resurgence and APAC's Declining Influence
Progressive candidates are making significant gains in Democratic primaries, reversing previous setbacks. A key factor is the growing liability of accepting APAC money; candidates found hiding such funds often see their poll numbers flip within weeks, indicating a shift in voter sentiment.
The host notes that after 2024, when progressive efforts 'went a little backwards because of all that APAC money,' now 'the APAC money has now become a massive liability in these primaries really in the past six to eight months.'
2Democratic Consultant Class Resistance to Grassroots Campaigns
Democratic consultants are actively working to derail progressive candidates because their business model relies on large-scale TV, digital, and mailer campaigns. The success of grassroots, people-powered campaigns that focus on canvassing and door-knocking directly threatens the consultants' financial interests, leading them to criticize 'unconventional' candidates.
Emma Vigeland states that a Democratic consultant's 'pocketbook is under threat with campaigns like this. The success of campaigns that are relying on canvassing and door knocking and in-person voter outreach is a direct threat to her pocketbook because consultant firms... make their cash off commission on large-scale uh uh TV ad buys and digital media ad buys and these mailer campaigns.'
3UAW Local 2093 Strike: 18 Years of Wage Stagnation Amidst Billions in Profit
Workers at American Axle (Dauch Corporation), UAW Local 2093, are on strike after their top wages were cut in half to $18/hour in 2008 following the GM bailout. Despite the company making over $8 billion in profits in the last decade, current top wages are only $22/hour, significantly below the $28/hour needed to match 2008 wages with inflation, and far from the $44/hour if 2008 wages had kept pace with inflation and typical increases.
Josh Jaeger states, 'our top wage at the time was $18 an hour. Our current top wage is $22 an hour. We've managed to gain back $4 an hour in 18 years.' He adds, 'American Axle has made over 8 billion dollars in profits in the last 10 years also.'
4Dangerous Picket Line Conditions for Striking Workers
Strikers at American Axle are facing dangerous conditions on the picket line, with company-hired contractors and security personnel reportedly driving through the lines without yielding, leading to multiple instances of workers being hit by vehicles.
Josh Jaeger reports, 'We've had a few instances already where contractors that were hired by the company are blowing through the picket lines. They're not giving us time to get out of the way. I've watched personally one young man get hit by a van three times... I personally was hit by a car last night.'
Bottom Line
The weakening of traditional party machines and ballot design changes in states like New Jersey are creating new avenues for progressive insurgent candidates to succeed, challenging long-standing establishment control.
This suggests that progressive movements are not just gaining ideological traction but are also finding ways to dismantle structural barriers to entry, potentially leading to a more diverse and representative political landscape.
Activists and progressive organizations should study and replicate successful strategies for ballot reform and challenging party machines in other states to expand progressive influence.
The UAW's substantial $800 million strike fund provides significant leverage, allowing Local 2093 to sustain their strike for an extended period, countering management's expectation of a short 'war of attrition.'
This financial backing empowers unions to demand more substantial concessions and prevents companies from simply waiting out workers, shifting the power dynamic in labor negotiations.
Labor movements should prioritize building robust strike funds and publicizing their financial strength to deter management from underestimating their resolve and capacity for prolonged action.
Key Concepts
Consultant Class Self-Preservation
This model describes how political consulting firms, which profit from large-scale media buys and mailer campaigns, are financially incentivized to oppose grassroots, people-powered campaigns that rely on canvassing and direct voter outreach. Their business model is directly threatened by the success of campaigns that don't funnel money through traditional advertising channels.
Strategic Voting in Top-Two Primaries
In California's top-two primary system, voters often cast ballots not based purely on their preferred candidate, but strategically to ensure their party is represented in the general election or to shut out an opposing party. This dynamic can consolidate votes around perceived frontrunners, even if they aren't the first choice, and can be heavily influenced by polling data.
Lessons
- Support UAW Local 2093 workers: If local, visit their picket line at 15802 Offen Road in Three Rivers, Michigan, or visit their website UAW2093.org for more information on how to help.
- Engage in local and state primaries: Research candidates beyond federal races, especially in local elections for prosecutors, sheriffs, and state legislative seats, as these can have significant policy impacts.
- Be aware of political consultant incentives: Recognize that criticisms of grassroots campaigns from Democratic consultants may be financially motivated, not purely ideological, and evaluate candidates based on their platforms and community support.
Notable Moments
Discussion of how APAC money has become a 'massive liability' for candidates in recent primaries, causing polls to flip when hidden donations are exposed.
This indicates a significant shift in voter perception and a potential weakening of a powerful lobbying group's influence in Democratic politics.
Emma Vigeland's explanation of how Democratic consultants' financial interests are threatened by grassroots campaigns, leading them to oppose progressive candidates.
This exposes the underlying economic conflicts within the Democratic Party and highlights why establishment figures often resist insurgent progressive movements.
Josh Jaeger's account of UAW Local 2093 workers' wages being cut in half in 2008 and only recovering $4/hour in 18 years, while American Axle made $8 billion in profit.
This stark contrast vividly illustrates the long-term impact of corporate concessions on workers and the immense wealth disparity that has grown since the 2008 financial crisis.
Jaeger's report of workers being hit by vehicles on the picket line, highlighting the dangerous and aggressive tactics faced by strikers.
This underscores the physical risks and intimidation tactics workers face when exercising their right to strike, revealing the high stakes of labor disputes.
Quotes
"The APAC money has now become a massive liability in these primaries really in the past six to eight months. Um every time Drop Site breaks a story about how one candidate has been hiding their APAC money, the polls flip within weeks."
"Your pocketbook is under threat with campaigns like this. The success of campaigns that are relying on canvassing and door knocking and in-person voter outreach is a direct threat to her pocketbook because consultant firms... make their cash off commission on large-scale uh uh TV ad buys and digital media ad buys and these mailer campaigns."
"Our top wage at the time was $18 an hour. Our current top wage is $22 an hour. We've managed to gain back $4 an hour in 18 years. That doesn't keep up with any type of inflation, no type of increases."
"American Axle has made over 8 billion dollars in profits in the last 10 years also."
"I've watched personally one young man get hit by a van three times. Pushed him out of the way. Another truck clipped a young person. I personally was hit by a car last night trying to aid in showing the picketers what to do as their hired security is trying to get a car out. They're pushing me out of the way, directed the car forward, it hit me."
Q&A
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