Special Report: U.S. & Israel Launch Unprovoked Attack on Iran, Risking Broader Regional War
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The U.S. and Israel conducted a joint, unprovoked attack on Iran, striking over 500 targets.
- ❖Initial strikes in Iran killed over 200 people, including at least 60 children in an elementary school.
- ❖Iran retaliated by launching attacks across the Middle East, targeting Israel, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, and hitting several U.S. bases.
- ❖President Trump called for regime change in Iran and launched attacks without U.S. congressional approval.
- ❖International law experts and UN officials condemned the attacks as an illegal 'war of aggression,' violating the non-use of force principle.
- ❖The Israeli public showed a 'resigned and jubilant' response, with widespread panic buying but also consensus for war.
- ❖Analysts debated whether the war's true objective was regime change or a short-term political gain for Trump and Netanyahu.
- ❖There are reports of Iran's Revolutionary Guards attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil export route.
Insights
1U.S.-Israel Attack Deemed Illegal and Unprovoked
Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute, stated the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran constitutes an illegal 'war of aggression' under both international and domestic American law, lacking congressional approval and occurring amidst active negotiations where Iran had offered significant concessions. He argues Trump opted for war, seeking 'capitulation' rather than a deal.
Trita Parsi: 'This is clearly an illegal war and a war of aggression. It's illegal in terms of international law. It clearly is illegal in terms of domestic American law. This issue has not been debated. It has not been voted on by Congress.' He also noted Omani foreign minister's report of Iranian concessions making a deal 'dramatically stronger' than the 2015 Obama deal, including zero enriched uranium.
2Immediate Regional Retaliation and Civilian Casualties
Iran responded swiftly by attacking Israel and multiple U.S.-allied Gulf states (UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan), hitting several U.S. bases. The initial U.S.-Israeli strikes caused significant civilian casualties in Iran, including over 60 children killed in an elementary school, which Nagar Mortazavi and Trita Parsi highlighted as immediately coloring the perception of the war among Iranians.
Iranian state media reported an Israeli strike hit an elementary girls' school in Manab, killing at least 85 people, including 60 children. Iran reported at least 200 people killed so far. Trita Parsi noted the high casualty rate at a girls' school on the first day 'has already colored the view of a lot of Iranians inside of Iran who do not care for this regime.' Nagar Mortazavi confirmed Iran's threat to 'retaliate and turn this into a regional war.'
3Israeli Public's 'Schizophrenic' Response to War
Ory Goldberg, an independent Israeli political analyst, described the Israeli public's reaction as a 'schizophrenic combination of resigned and jubilant.' Israelis are resigned to the necessity of war with Iran, with no political opposition, but also experienced panic buying and uncertainty about the war's duration.
Ory Goldberg: 'Israelis are...a schizophrenic combination of resigned and jubilant. We can do both apparently ever since Israel began its genocidal efforts in Gaza.' He added, 'There's absolutely no political opposition...Israelis are completely resigned to the notion that war with Iran is necessary.'
4War Objectives Unclear and Potentially Maximalist
Ervand Abrahamian, Professor Emeritus at CUNY, argued the administration's war objectives are unclear and contradictory. He suggested 'regime change' rhetoric might camouflage a more drastic goal: the 'destruction of the whole nation and state of Iran,' leading to chaos and civil war, similar to other Middle Eastern countries, which would be disastrous for the region and Europe.
Ervand Abrahamian: 'The administration's gone to war without making basically clear what the objectives are. This could be intentional.' He suspected 'they themselves are confused.' He posited the 'real reason is much more maximalist...destruction of the whole nation and state of Iran...start a civil war and then have maybe a 10 years of basically chaos where you don't have to worry about Iran because Iran doesn't exist.'
5Global Implications and European Hypocrisy
Ishan Tharoor, former Washington Post columnist, emphasized the alarming regional impact, particularly the 'puncturing' of Gulf states' image as stable 'oases' for business and tourism. He also highlighted the 'hypocrisy' and 'timid statements' from European leaders who, despite recent rhetoric about a rules-based order, are acquiescent to U.S. actions, failing to condemn violations of international law.
Ishan Tharoor: 'The scenes we're seeing across the Gulf...debris and rocket strikes and drones hitting Bahrain and Kuwait and Doha and in Dubai...this is pretty alarming.' He noted European governments 'putting out very careful, timid statements...not really leaning into any kind of rhetoric about...sovereignty or international law.'
Bottom Line
The U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, despite significant Iranian nuclear concessions in ongoing negotiations, suggests that the primary driver for the conflict was not a nuclear threat but a strategic choice aimed at achieving 'capitulation' or political leverage.
This implies that diplomatic solutions, even when favorable, may be disregarded if a more aggressive, maximalist outcome is sought, setting a dangerous precedent for international relations.
International mediators and non-aligned states could leverage this insight to expose the true motives behind such conflicts, fostering greater transparency and potentially building a stronger coalition against unilateral military actions.
The Israeli public's 'resigned and jubilant' acceptance of war with Iran, coupled with a lack of political opposition, indicates a deeply entrenched narrative that frames this conflict as an inevitable and necessary defense, potentially blinding them to its broader consequences.
This societal consensus makes it challenging to de-escalate or question the war's objectives from within Israel, prolonging conflict and increasing regional instability.
Independent media and civil society organizations could focus on challenging this ingrained narrative by providing diverse perspectives and highlighting the human and economic costs of prolonged conflict to foster a more critical public discourse.
The U.S. administration's 'unbound' approach to foreign policy, disregarding international and domestic legal frameworks, risks normalizing the 'law of the jungle' where might makes right, potentially encouraging other global powers like Russia and China to act similarly.
This erosion of the rules-based order undermines global stability and makes future conflicts more likely and less predictable, with severe consequences for smaller nations and international cooperation.
International legal bodies and alliances of states committed to multilateralism could actively work to reinforce international law through robust condemnations, sanctions, and the establishment of tribunals for crimes of aggression, setting a clear boundary against unilateral force.
Opportunities
Develop alternative global energy supply chain resilience strategies.
Given Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil export route, businesses and governments should invest in diversifying energy sources, developing alternative shipping routes, and building strategic reserves to mitigate the economic impact of such geopolitical choke points.
Key Concepts
War of Choice
A conflict initiated by a state when its core security is not immediately threatened, often driven by political objectives or a desire for 'capitulation' rather than a negotiated settlement, as argued by Trita Parsi regarding the U.S. attack on Iran despite Iranian concessions.
Rules-Based International Order
A global system of norms, laws, and institutions designed to govern state behavior and promote peace, which Reed Brody argues was fundamentally violated by the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, akin to Russia's actions in Ukraine. Europe's muted response highlights a perceived hypocrisy in upholding this order.
Law of the Jungle
A state of international affairs where power dictates actions rather than established laws or norms. Reed Brody used this term to describe the U.S. actions, suggesting that if powerful nations disregard international law, it legitimizes similar actions by other global powers like Russia and China.
Lessons
- Scrutinize official justifications for military action, especially when presented as 'preemptive' or 'regime change,' by cross-referencing with international law and independent expert analysis.
- Recognize the potential for 'war of choice' scenarios where diplomatic solutions are bypassed for political objectives, even when favorable concessions are on the table.
- Understand that civilian casualties, particularly early in a conflict, can significantly shape public opinion and resistance within targeted nations, even among those disaffected with their own regime.
- Monitor the responses of international bodies and allied nations to unilateral military actions, as their reactions (or lack thereof) can indicate the erosion or reinforcement of the rules-based international order.
Notable Moments
Report of an Israeli strike hitting an elementary girls' school in Manab, killing at least 85 people, including 60 children.
This highlights the immediate and devastating civilian toll of the conflict, potentially galvanizing internal opposition against the attackers rather than the Iranian regime, as noted by Trita Parsi.
Oman's foreign minister criticizing the U.S. for attacking Iran in the middle of negotiations, stating 'active and serious negotiations have yet again been undermined.'
This provides concrete evidence that the attacks were not a last resort but occurred despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and Iranian concessions, challenging the narrative of an unavoidable conflict.
Reports of Iran's Revolutionary Guards issuing VHF transmissions stating 'no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz.'
This signifies a major escalation with direct global economic implications, as the Strait is the world's most vital oil export route, threatening global energy markets and supply chains.
Quotes
"This is clearly an illegal war and a war of aggression. It's illegal in terms of international law. It clearly is illegal in terms of domestic American law. This issue has not been debated. It has not been voted on by Congress."
"Trump opted to go for war because what he clearly seems to be looking for is not a deal but capital and surrender."
"Israelis are...a schizophrenic combination of resigned and jubilant. We can do both apparently ever since Israel began its genocidal efforts in Gaza."
"I think they're thinking more in terms of not the destruction of the regime but the destruction of the whole nation and state of Iran...start a civil war and then have maybe a 10 years of basically chaos where you don't have to worry about Iran because Iran doesn't exist."
"The hypocrisy at this point is is is not even on the it's it's irrelevant because we're seeing this as an administration that uh first and foremost the through line in everything that it does is um a kind of constant reminder to the rest of the world that it is unbound, that it is its primacy is paramount and that it can do it is allowed to to sh set the terms as it sees fit."
"These attacks are a clear violation of the foundational principle of the post-war legal order, uh, which is the non-use of force."
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