Labor Fights to Expect in 2026 | Keith Brower Brown | TMR

Verizon workers, represented by CWA and IBEW, are entering a crucial contract negotiation in 2026. A significant issue is retiree healthcare, particularly for older workers nearing retirement age but not yet eligible for Medicare. Verizon's strategic shift from copper to fiber optics and wireless has led to a declining unionized workforce, making this contract a fight for the future of their benefits and job security.

Keith Brower Brown notes the 2016 Verizon strike and explains, 'This is the first time they're bargaining a whole new contract and a strike is totally possible.' He adds, 'a really big fight this year is with all these older workers like the bulk of the workforce are getting closer to retirement age what kind of health care are they going to get when they retire is a huge battlefield in this contract coming up.'

Healthcare workers, particularly nurses, are pushing for safe staffing ratios in their contracts to protect patient care, similar to teachers fighting for smaller class sizes. This demand is intensified by widespread hospital closures, especially in rural and working-class areas, driven by Medicaid cuts and the end of ACA subsidies. Unions like NYSNA and those at Kaiser are challenging management's profit extraction and seeking state intervention to fill funding gaps.

Brown states, 'healthcare workers for many years now have fought to get safe staffing ratios in their contracts... to protect their patients and ensure good care.' He links this to 'massive cuts coming down from Medicaid and then private insurance rates jacking up with the end of the Affordable Care Act subsidies,' leading to 'layoff threats all over the country.'

The United Steel Workers (USW) utilize 'pattern agreements' in sectors like oil refining, aluminum, rubber, and steel. This strategy involves targeting a financially robust company (e.g., Chevron in oil) to negotiate a strong contract, then using that agreement as a 'pattern' to demand similar terms from other companies in the same industry. This approach maximizes leverage and raises standards across an entire sector.

Brown explains, 'a pattern agreement is you do one company and that sets the pattern for a chain of other companies down the line.' He cites the 2022 Chevron refinery strike in Richmond, California, as an example where 'they knew like Chevron's going to hurt if we shut down this facility.'

Sean Fain's call for unions to align contract expirations with May 1st, 2028, is a strategic move to maximize collective bargaining power. While a two-year contract is short, some unions, particularly in healthcare, may consider it to align with this date. The UAW itself has significant auto parts contracts expiring in 2026, representing an opportunity to raise wages for the lowest-paid segment of the auto industry, which saw concessions in 2008.

Brown notes, 'in 2026, probably the last chance we'll see unions intentionally line up for May 1st, 2028.' He highlights auto parts contracts as the 'first big battle in the auto sector' since the 2023 strike, aiming to 'raise the floor for the lowest paid part of the auto industry.'

The fight against AI's unchecked use in the workplace is a growing demand in union contracts across various industries. The WGA, following its 2023 strike, is pushing for even stronger language to prevent AI from generating content using members' work. This concern extends to the News Guild, which seeks limits on 'AI slap' news content, and even the Steelworkers, who are demanding restrictions on AI as a surveillance tool in oil refineries.

Brown mentions the WGA's 2023 strike winning 'significant firsttime contract language saying, 'We're drawing the line and how much of our material you can... regurgitate as AI slap Netflix content.'' He adds that the News Guild is campaigning for 'limits on AI slap as news content' and Steelworkers are 'pushing for limits on AI use as a surveillance tool in the workplace.'