NEW POLLS: Trump’s Iran War is Deeply Unpopular
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Early polling indicates strong public disapproval for military strikes against Iran, with 59% of adults and 68% of independents disapproving.
- ❖Trump's actions contradict his 'America First' non-interventionist campaign promises, potentially alienating voters who supported him to avoid foreign wars.
- ❖The administration lacks a coherent narrative for the strikes, with no single goal receiving more than 14% public belief.
- ❖Voters primarily hired Trump to improve the domestic economy and lower prices, viewing foreign policy distractions as frustrating.
- ❖The hosts suggest this issue could be one of the few things that erodes Trump's strong support among Republicans, similar to George W. Bush's approval decline after the Iraq War.
Insights
1Widespread Public Disapproval for Iran Strikes
Early polling data from CNN and the Washington Post shows significant public opposition to military strikes against Iran. CNN reported 41% approval and 59% disapproval among adults, with independents disapproving at 68%. The Washington Post found 39% overall support and 52% opposition, and 59% opposition among independents.
CNN poll: 41% approve, 59% disapprove (adults); 32% approve, 68% disapprove (independents). Washington Post poll: 39% overall support, 52% opposed; 28% support, 59% opposed (independents).
2Trump's Actions Contradict 'America First' Platform
The hosts argue that Trump's military action in Iran directly conflicts with his long-standing 'America First' message and campaign promises to avoid foreign interventionism and 'stupid wars.' This creates a disconnect with voters, including some of his base, who supported him specifically for this stance.
Sarah Longwell states Trump has 'been teaching people to have a negative view on foreign interventionism' and that 'America first isn't a slogan. It's a statement of prioritization.' Tim Miller recounts an uncle voting for Trump in 2016 specifically because 'the wars were stupid.'
3Lack of Coherent Narrative for the Strikes
Polling reveals that the public, including Trump's supporters, does not understand the administration's main goal in Iran. No single reason for the strikes garnered more than 14% belief, indicating a failure to articulate a clear purpose, which makes it difficult for supporters to defend the policy.
Washington Post poll on administration's main goal: 'show power, take control' (14%), 'unsure of goals' (13%), 'change Iranian regime' (12%), 'help Iranians or stabilize region' (12%), 'stopping nuclear program' (9%), 'money or oil' (9%), 'distract from Epstein' (8%), 'protecting the US' (7%).
4Economic Focus Over Foreign Policy for Voters
Voters, particularly those who supported Trump, prioritize domestic economic issues like lowering prices and affordability. Foreign policy actions that do not directly translate into economic benefits are seen as distractions and can lead to frustration among the base.
Sarah Longwell notes that 'people who voted for Trump because they wanted him to lower prices' will disapprove of actions 'not directed at lowering prices.' She emphasizes that 'their frustration with the economy means that they are not tolerant of anything that he does that doesn't directly translate into a better economy for them.'
Key Concepts
Wedge Issue
A political issue that divides a political party or group, or that divides the electorate, often used to unify one's own side while fracturing the opposition. The hosts argue Trump's Iran policy is acting as a 'reverse wedge issue,' dividing his own side while unifying the opposition.
America First as Prioritization
The concept that 'America First' is not just a slogan but a statement of prioritization, focusing on domestic issues like veterans, lowering prices, and the economy, rather than foreign adventurism. Trump's actions in Iran are seen as a betrayal of this prioritization.
The W Line (Bush Line)
A reference to the low approval ratings George W. Bush experienced after the Iraq War, suggesting a threshold of public disapproval that could have severe political consequences for a president engaged in a protracted foreign conflict.
Lessons
- Political strategists should recognize that foreign policy can become a 'wedge issue' against a candidate, especially if it contradicts core campaign promises.
- Campaigns must maintain a consistent narrative; shifting stances on key issues like foreign intervention can alienate even loyal voters.
- Leaders should ensure a clear, unified explanation for military actions, as public confusion about objectives can erode support.
- Candidates should prioritize voter concerns, particularly economic ones, as distractions from these core issues can lead to disapproval.
Notable Moments
Discussion of the 'W line' (Bush line) as a potential political consequence for Trump.
This analogy highlights the historical precedent of a president suffering significant political fallout from an unpopular war, suggesting a similar risk for Trump if the Iran conflict escalates.
Anecdote about a Piers Morgan show panel where Trump supporters were divided on the Iran strikes.
This real-world example illustrates the fracturing within Trump's base, with some supporters waffling or outright opposing the strikes, reinforcing the polling data.
Quotes
"Trump picked up about 20% of his cultists. Uh 59% disapprove. Uh the independence number I think is the most telling. 32 approved, 68 disapprove among independents."
"Trump has been teaching people to have a negative view on foreign interventionism... there's a lot of people who voted for Trump... saying, 'Look, we're we're not going to do these stupid wars. We're not going to get involved in these places. for America first.'"
"He's fracturing fracturing his own side and unifying the opposition."
"The number one thing he got it elected to do was to lower prices. And so everything he does that is not that frustrates people for whom that was the central promise."
Q&A
Recent Questions
Related Episodes
Trump 1 Year Approval TANKS Over Economy, ICE Raids
"One year into his second term, Donald Trump's approval ratings on the economy, immigration, and foreign policy have significantly declined, driven by an 'expectation vs. reality' gap in policy implementation and a perceived lack of focus on domestic affordability."
SHOCK BREAKING: TRUMP PRESSER JUST MADE ME NEARLY THROW UP!
"The host details a "nauseating" Trump cabinet meeting, dissecting his rambling, his cabinet's "pampering," and his questionable statements on war and policy, alongside a progressive Christian politician's impactful response to a death threat."
Liberal Media TURNS AGAINST Democrats As Stunt BACKFIRES After Trump And Elon Musk Pull Chess Move!
"The host argues that Democrats' government shutdown strategy, aimed at defunding ICE and virtue signaling, backfired as airport chaos mounted, prompting counter-moves from Trump and Elon Musk, and even criticism from liberal media outlets."
HOT TOPICS | Pam Bondi, Donald Trump & the Distraction From the Epstein Files!
"Don Lemon dissects alleged resignations from the Trump administration, exposes the 'holy war' narrative, and critiques the public's confusion amidst economic downturns and conflicting war justifications."