Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Amazon MGM Studios acquired the 'Melania' movie for $40 million, with 70% going directly to Melania Trump's production company, Muse.
- ❖The total investment, including a $35 million marketing budget, reached $75 million, making it vastly over-budget for a conservative documentary.
- ❖The film needs to gross approximately $150 million to break even, a target only three documentaries in history have achieved.
- ❖Director Brett Ratner, facing #MeToo accusations, is seen as using the film to regain Hollywood standing through political connections.
- ❖The movie is characterized as a staged 'reality TV show' or 'heography,' focusing on 'lifestyle porn' and Melania's personal narrative, rather than objective reporting.
- ❖Despite a reported 80% full screening in Dallas, tracking suggests a $5-10 million opening, far short of the $50 million needed for a $150 million lifetime gross.
- ❖The film avoids controversial topics like January 6th and Melania's 'Einstein visa,' and even at Jimmy Carter's funeral, focuses solely on her mother's death.
Insights
1Exorbitant Investment for a Niche Documentary
Amazon MGM Studios spent $40 million on the rights and $35 million on marketing for the 'Melania' movie, totaling $75 million. This is an unprecedented sum for a documentary, especially compared to successful conservative documentaries like Dinesh D'Souza's, which typically cost around $2 million and gross $5-15 million. The film requires a $150 million gross to break even, a figure only three documentaries have ever achieved globally.
Sunny Bunch states, 'We're talking about a $40 million purchase price by Amazon MGM studios just for the rights... 70% of that goes directly to Melania Trump.' He adds, 'Amazon MGM Studios paid $75 million between the rights, the production, and the marketing of this thing. A $35 million marketing budget.' He contrasts this with typical conservative documentaries made for 'about $2 million.'
2Director's Personal Agenda and Political Rehabilitation
Director Brett Ratner, who faced severe #MeToo accusations (including forcing oral sex and masturbating in front of Olivia Munn), is attempting a Hollywood comeback. The film is framed as an act of 'sycophancy' towards the Trump administration, facilitated by connections like Steve Mnuchin, with the goal of regaining industry favor, potentially leading to projects like 'Rush Hour 4.'
Sunny Bunch explains, 'This movie exists at least in part because Brett Ratner would really like to be making movies again. He got me too pretty hard.' He later notes, 'One of the ways he has seen to get back in is to buddy up with the Trump administration through his business partner and friend Steve Minutuchin.'
3The Film as 'Heography' and Reality TV
The 'Melania' movie is not a documentary but a highly staged 'reality TV show crossed with Entourage' or 'heography.' It features professional camera work, a good score, and focuses on 'lifestyle porn,' such as decorating and fashion, rather than serious policy or political events. It notably omits any mention of January 6th and frames Melania's personal grief over her mother's death as central, even during Jimmy Carter's funeral.
Sunny Bunch describes it as 'an absolute category error... This is not a documentary. It's a reality TV show.' He adds, 'It's this weird combination of lifestyle porn with heography and really good camera work.' He specifically mentions 'No January 6 stuff' and Melania's focus on her mother's death at Carter's funeral.
Bottom Line
The 'Melania' movie's business model suggests a shift from profit-driven entertainment to politically motivated investment, where securing favor or rehabilitation outweighs commercial viability.
This indicates a potential erosion of traditional market principles in certain segments of the entertainment industry, where political alignment can unlock disproportionate funding or opportunities, even for projects with poor commercial prospects.
Analysts and investors need to scrutinize projects with unusual funding structures, especially those tied to political figures, to identify hidden agendas or non-commercial motivations that could impact returns or reputation.
The film's 'audience of one' (Donald Trump) implies that its true value is not in public consumption or critical acclaim, but in its ability to serve as a personal tribute or political tool.
This challenges the conventional understanding of media production, where audience engagement and box office performance are paramount. It suggests that some high-budget productions are essentially vanity projects or political offerings.
Media companies and content creators should be aware of this 'audience of one' phenomenon, especially in politically charged environments, as it represents a distinct, albeit niche, market for content that serves specific personal or political ends, rather than broad appeal.
Lessons
- When evaluating media projects, look beyond stated commercial goals to identify potential political or personal motivations, especially for projects with unusually high budgets or controversial figures attached.
- Recognize that 'documentary' labels can be misleading; analyze the content's production style and narrative focus to determine if it's genuine reporting or a form of 'heography' or reality TV.
- Consider the broader implications of financial decisions in entertainment, particularly how large investments in non-commercially viable projects might signal attempts at political influence or personal image rehabilitation.
Quotes
"This isn't this isn't a movie. It's an open air bribe. Is that unfair?"
"This movie exists at least in part because Brett Ratner would really like to be making movies again. He got me too pretty hard."
"You cannot understand why this movie is getting made. You cannot understand why Amazon MGM Studios paid $75 million between the rights, the production, and the marketing of this thing."
"Describing this as a documentary is an absolute category error... This is not a documentary. It's a reality TV show."
"This is a $75 million production with Princeton advertising uh that has an audience of one and I'm sure he'll be very happy with it."
Q&A
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