Polls Say Trump Is Tanking. Adam Serwer Doesn’t Believe Them. | Bulwark Podcast
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Supreme Court's 'colorblind' philosophy, as articulated by Chief Justice Roberts, is seen as a naive and malicious approach that enables discrimination by equating remedies for racism with racism itself.
- ❖Donald Trump's political success demonstrated that there is a significantly lower political cost for overt racism than previously believed, emboldening the Republican party.
- ❖The current gerrymandering efforts, particularly in Tennessee, are overtly designed to dilute black voting power, mirroring historical disenfranchisement tactics.
- ❖Historical precedent from post-Reconstruction shows that severing communities from democratic accountability leads to increased vulnerability to violence, economic dispossession, and discrimination.
- ❖Current polling data may be unreliable in gauging public sentiment in the Trump era, as he activates voters who do not typically show up in polls.
- ❖The 'male doomer industry' on social media exploits economic dislocation among young white men, pushing reactionary content that blames others for their problems and promotes taking away rights and choices from other groups.
Insights
1Historical Precedent for 'Colorblind' Discrimination
The current judicial philosophy, particularly regarding voting rights, echoes historical figures like James Jackson Kilpatrick, a former segregationist who evolved to advocate 'colorblindness.' Kilpatrick realized that by framing racial discrimination remedies as 'racist,' he could achieve his policy goals of maintaining de facto segregation without overtly discriminatory laws. This historical parallel suggests a calculated strategy rather than genuine neutrality.
Kilpatrick's shift from overt segregationist to 'colorblindness' advocate, as detailed through his personal correspondence, where he admits it was a mercenary decision to maintain de facto segregation without being an 'open clansman' ().
2Supreme Court's View on 'Liberty to Discriminate'
The Supreme Court, particularly Justices like Samuel Alito and John Roberts, appears to regard the 'liberty to discriminate' as an actual constitutional liberty, while dismissing the 'liberty not to be discriminated against' as a 'fake thing' imposed by 'foolish liberals.' This perspective allows for indifference to actual racial discrimination while taking umbrage at accusations of racism.
Serwer states, 'the court regards the liberty to discriminate as an actual liberty and the liberty not to be discriminated against as sort of a fake thing' (). He cites Alito's indifference to racial discrimination and Roberts's 'reactionary colorblindness' formulation: 'the way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race' ().
3Trump's Normalization of Overt Racism and its Political Cost
Donald Trump's political success demonstrated that the price for being overtly racist in American politics was not as high as previously believed. This realization removed restraints on Republican leadership, who previously felt a political cost for overt racism (e.g., Bush era's attempts at racial outreach). Trump's ability to use racist rhetoric without significant public perception damage (due to his 'business guy' image among low-information voters) emboldened the party to pursue more aggressive, racially targeted policies.
Serwer argues that 'Trump showed that the price to pay for being overtly racist was not nearly as much as they thought it was' (). He contrasts this with the Bush era's efforts to appear inclusive and cites Trump's use of terms like 'shithole countries' and calling black people 'garbage' without significant political repercussions ().
4Post-Reconstruction Parallels: Vulnerability from Disenfranchisement
The current efforts to dilute black voting power, exemplified by Tennessee's redistricting, are not merely partisan but risk severing entire communities from democratic accountability. Drawing parallels to the post-Reconstruction era, Serwer warns that such disenfranchisement historically led to increased vulnerability, economic dispossession, violence, and a breakdown of legal protection for black communities, as politicians no longer feared losing their votes.
Serwer discusses how full disenfranchisement after Reconstruction led to increased violence and lynching, as local authorities stopped enforcing laws to protect black people. He states, 'if politicians do not fear losing your vote, they will overlook all kinds of things' ().
5Unreliable Polling in the Trump Era
Traditional polling methods have become unreliable in gauging public sentiment due to Trump's unique ability to activate voters who do not typically participate in polls. This makes it difficult to accurately assess the extent of public anger or support for certain policies until actual election results are in.
Serwer states, 'I do not trust the polling. Like, I simply do not... Trump has to some extent has made polling unreliable' (). He notes Trump 'seems to activate people who do not show up in polls but do show up at the ballot box' ().
Bottom Line
The perceived 'culture change' towards racial equality after the Civil Rights Movement was more a product of legal restraints than genuine societal transformation.
Removing these legal restraints (e.g., weakening the VRA) reveals that the underlying cultural biases and desire to discriminate persist, leading to a rapid regression in civil rights protections and practices.
Advocates for racial justice must recognize that legal frameworks are not just reflections of culture but powerful shapers of it. Strategies should focus on re-establishing and strengthening legal protections, rather than solely relying on cultural shifts, to prevent further backsliding.
The 'male doomer industry' on social media actively exploits economic dislocation among young white men, channeling their frustrations into reactionary political views that blame other groups for their problems.
This phenomenon creates a significant political challenge for the Democratic Party, as these narratives are highly effective in radicalizing a demographic that feels economically and socially marginalized, making traditional outreach difficult.
To counter this, political parties and social movements need to develop compelling narratives and policies that address the legitimate economic anxieties of this demographic without resorting to scapegoating or misogyny. This requires understanding the root causes of their frustration and offering constructive, inclusive solutions, rather than simply dismissing their concerns.
Key Concepts
Reactionary Colorblindness
A judicial and political philosophy that claims to be 'colorblind' but, in practice, opposes any measures designed to remedy racial inequality, effectively maintaining existing disparities. It equates attempts to address racism with racism itself, thereby enabling de facto discrimination under the guise of neutrality. This model is exemplified by figures like James Jackson Kilpatrick and, according to Serwer, Chief Justice John Roberts.
Virtue Signaling (Political Context)
The act of publicly expressing opinions or sentiments that indicate one's moral values, often to enhance one's social standing or political appeal. The podcast suggests that while often maligned, political leaders 'virtue signaling' (e.g., Bush signing the VRA) can create a societal expectation for ethical behavior, which, when abandoned, allows for more overt and harmful actions without political consequence.
Lessons
- Recognize that legal protections are fundamental to maintaining social progress; their erosion can quickly reveal persistent societal biases, necessitating renewed focus on legislative and judicial advocacy.
- Be wary of 'colorblind' arguments in policy and law, as they can be a sophisticated means to perpetuate de facto discrimination under the guise of neutrality, as evidenced by historical figures like Kilpatrick.
- Understand that political rhetoric, especially from high-profile figures, can significantly alter the perceived 'cost' of overt racism, influencing the actions of political parties and potentially leading to more aggressive discriminatory policies.
Notable Moments
The host, Tim Miller, expresses a recent fundamental belief change to becoming 'very pro-virtue signaling,' arguing that leaders appealing to virtue, even if performative, is better than appealing to division.
This highlights a re-evaluation of political communication strategies, suggesting that even symbolic gestures towards positive values can have a restraining effect on overt harmful actions by political actors, contrasting with the current climate where such signals are absent.
A Tennessee House Majority Leader, William Lambert, claims he is 'not privy to those demographics' when asked if Memphis is a predominantly African-American city during a debate on redistricting Shelby County.
This moment exemplifies the 'blatant' and 'absurd' denial of racial motivations in gerrymandering efforts, showcasing the current political climate where officials openly disregard demographic realities to justify policies that dilute minority voting power.
Quotes
"The court regards the liberty to discriminate as an actual liberty and the liberty not to be discriminated against as sort of a fake thing that was imposed by foolish liberals."
"Trump showed that the price to pay for being overtly racist was not nearly as much as they thought it was."
"The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race. But by that he means like trying to do anything about racism."
"It was not that there was, you know, the tremendous culture change that we thought we witnessed after my parents' generation was not so much a culture change as a legal change."
"If politicians do not fear losing your vote, they will overlook all kinds of things."
"I do not trust the polling. Like, I simply do not."
Q&A
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