John Mearsheimer: US LOSING War With Iran
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖John Mearsheimer asserts the US is not winning its conflict with Iran, which is incentivized to prolong the war into an attrition campaign.
- ❖US Senators, after classified briefings, report that the administration's war goals do not include destroying Iran's nuclear program or achieving regime change, contradicting public statements by President Trump.
- ❖The actual US strategy appears to be 'nation destruction'—repeatedly bombing Iranian military production facilities (missiles, boats, drones) without a long-term plan, creating an 'endless war' cycle.
- ❖Concerns are mounting over the potential deployment of US ground troops in Iran and active intelligence/material aid from Russia and potentially China to Iran.
- ❖The US's foreign policy is seen as incoherent, with a lack of clear objectives and an inability to define victory or an exit strategy.
- ❖The US is perceived as 'indebted' to the UAE, influencing its policy in Sudan by designating the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood as terrorists, which benefits the UAE-backed RSF, despite the RSF's genocidal actions.
Insights
1US is Losing, Iran Benefits from Protracted War
Professor John Mearsheimer states the war is not going well for the United States, which lacks an off-ramp. He argues Iran has an incentive and the means to continue the conflict, turning it into a protracted war of attrition because the US has not achieved a decisive victory comparable to WWII.
Mearsheimer's analysis: 'it's quite clear that the war is not going well for the United States... the Iranians have an incentive to continue the war to turn it into a protracted war of attrition.'
2Incoherent US War Objectives and Strategy
Senators Chris Murphy and Richard Blumenthal, after classified briefings, revealed a significant disconnect in US war goals. Murphy stated that internal planners confirmed the war is not about destroying Iran's nuclear program or regime change, despite Trump's public claims. Blumenthal expressed that his questions remained unanswered and that the US seems on a path to deploying ground troops to achieve 'any of the potential objectives,' highlighting the ambiguity.
Senator Murphy's tweet thread: 'war goals do not involve destroying Iran's nuclear program... regime change is also not on the list.' Senator Blumenthal: 'My questions have been unanswered... We seem to be on a path toward deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish any of the potential objectives here.'
3Strategy of 'Nation Destruction' Leading to Endless War
The hosts interpret the revealed strategy as 'nation destruction' rather than nation-building. The primary goal is to destroy missile, boat, and drone factories. However, planners hinted at 'more bombing' when production restarts, leading to an 'endless war' cycle without a clear end or victory condition.
Host's interpretation of Murphy's findings: 'we're just going to do nation destruction... to cause as much damage as we possibly can. Then, we're going to stop. And the second that they try to start rebuilding anything, we're going to attack them again.' Murphy's report: 'what happens when you stop bombing and they restart production? they hinted at more bombing which is of course as he says endless war.'
4Potential for Russian and Chinese Aid to Iran
Senator Blumenthal raised concerns about 'active Russian aid to Iran putting in danger American lives,' including intelligence and potentially other means. He also suggested China 'may be assisting Iran.' A US official, Steve Whitco, mentioned Russia denied sharing information when asked by the president.
Senator Blumenthal: 'the spectre of active Russian aid to Iran... Russia seems to be aiding our enemy actively and intensively with intelligence and perhaps with other means. And China also may be assisting Iran.' Steve Whitco: 'the Russians said that they have not been sharing.'
Bottom Line
The US is designating the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood as a specially designated global terrorist group, a move that significantly benefits the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, despite the RSF's alleged genocidal actions.
This action suggests US foreign policy is being influenced by its 'indebtedness' to allies like the UAE, potentially at the expense of human rights and stability in other regions, and contradicts efforts to pressure the UAE to withdraw support for the RSF.
This highlights an opportunity for independent media and analysts to scrutinize US foreign policy decisions for hidden influences and unintended consequences, particularly in complex geopolitical landscapes where allies have conflicting interests.
Lessons
- Question official narratives on foreign conflicts, especially when stated objectives appear inconsistent or lack a clear path to resolution.
- Demand transparency from elected officials regarding war goals, costs, and exit strategies, particularly when the potential for 'endless war' or ground troop deployment is discussed.
- Investigate the role of allied nations and their influence on US foreign policy decisions, especially in regions where their interests may diverge from stated US values or strategic goals.
Quotes
"It's quite clear that the war is not going well for the United States... the Iranians have an incentive to continue the war to turn it into a protracted war of attrition."
"My questions have been unanswered and I will demand answers because the American people deserve to know. And I guess I am most concerned about the threat to American lives of potentially deploying our sons and daughters on the ground in Iran."
"War goals do not involve destroying Iran's nuclear program... regime change is also not on the list. So they're going to spend hundreds of billions of your taxpayer dollars, get a whole bunch of Americans killed, and a hardline regime... will still be in charge."
Q&A
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