LIVE: Mass Protests ERUPT In Iran - IRGC Launch Missiles At Arab States
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Mass protests have erupted in over 20 major Iranian cities, with students and young people chanting anti-government slogans.
- ❖The IRGC launched missile and drone attacks against Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq, targeting the Kuwait International Airport for the second time in days.
- ❖The US military retaliated with strikes against IRGC facilities in southern Iran and maintains a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
- ❖The host asserts that the US, under President Trump, is deliberately avoiding an all-out war while continuing to 'suffocate' the Iranian regime economically and militarily.
- ❖A 60-day negotiation deadline has passed, with the US government confirming it will no longer engage in talks with the Iranian regime.
- ❖An IRGC air base in Shiraz experienced a 'mysterious explosion' or 'gas leak' resulting in a massive fire, suspected to be sabotage.
- ❖The US denied visas to 15 IRGC 'handlers' who attempted to travel with Iran's national football team to the World Cup, intended to monitor players.
- ❖Lebanese President Joseph Aun publicly condemned the IRGC for exploiting Lebanon through Hezbollah, indicating a shift in regional sentiment.
- ❖An Iranian senior military adviser publicly begged the US for $24 billion, framing it as a 'test of trust' for negotiations, which the host ridiculed.
Insights
1Widespread Protests Signal Deep Internal Instability in Iran
Mass protests have erupted across more than 20 major and medium-sized cities in Iran, driven by young people and students. Chants like 'students would rather die than accept humiliation by the Islamic occupiers' and 'don't be afraid, we are all together' highlight the deep-seated discontent against the government's failures, including basic safety, freedom, and creating a brighter future. The host notes that the regime, despite past threats of 'shoot to kill' for protesters, has not immediately launched a full crackdown, suggesting a weakened state and lack of unity.
Over 20 cities experiencing huge protests by young people and students against government failures (). Chants translated: 'students we would rather die than accept humiliation by the Islamic occupiers' (), 'Don't be afraid. Don't be afraid. We are all together' (). Host mentions the regime's past fatwa to 'shoot to kill' even one protester, but they have not done so, indicating they are 'terrified' and 'weakened' (, ).
2IRGC's Desperate Aggression and US Retaliation
The IRGC launched multiple missile and drone attacks against Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq, targeting international airports and US forces. This aggression is framed as a desperate attempt to provoke an all-out war, which the host claims would create unity within the struggling Iranian regime. The US military, however, has refused to 'take the bait,' instead retaliating with targeted strikes on IRGC military facilities in Sir Guruk and Gh Island in southern Iran, while maintaining a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
IRGC launched more attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq (). US military retaliated, destroying IRGC positions in southern Iran (). IRGC trying to drag Americans and Arabs into an all-out war for internal unity (). US decided not to take the bait and continues to paralyze the regime (). Attacks included missiles and drones on Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and US forces (). US forces intercepted multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and drones () and subsequently struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites ().
3US Strategy to 'Suffocate' Iran Regime Through Blockade and Non-Negotiation
The US government, under President Trump, has adopted a strategy of continuous pressure and non-negotiation to weaken the Iranian regime. This involves a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to drain resources and finances, creating internal infighting. Following a 60-day negotiation deadline, the US confirmed it would no longer talk to the Iranian regime, rejecting all 'surrender deal' proposals. This approach is presented as effectively 'suffocating' the regime and preventing it from strengthening.
President Trump and the US government have confirmed they will no longer talk to the regime in Iran (). US military continues operation against the regime in the Strait of Hormuz, blockade continues, draining resources and finances (). President Trump rejected every single deal sent from Tehran (). US military squeezing the IRGC is a one-way attack (). Beyond the 60 days, the US government will no longer talk to anybody from Iran ().
4IRGC Propaganda Debunked and Internal Weakness Exposed
The IRGC's propaganda efforts are failing, with their claims of destroying US military bases in Bahrain repeatedly debunked, even by traditionally sympathetic media like Al Jazeera. Furthermore, the IRGC's use of medium-range ballistic missiles for short-range targets, when launched from close proximity to Kuwait, suggests potential shortages or logistical problems with their short-range arsenal, indicating a weakened military capability. The US also exposed the regime's attempts to send IRGC 'handlers' with the national football team to the World Cup, denying their visas.
IRGC claimed three times to have destroyed the US fifth fleet headquarters in Bahrain, with no evidence (). Al Jazeera spent weeks debunking false claims from the Iranian regime (). IRGC used medium-range ballistic missiles for targets '2 seconds away from Kuwait,' raising questions about short-range missile availability or launcher problems (, ). US government denied visa access to 15 'IRGC handlers' intended to monitor football players at the World Cup ().
Bottom Line
The IRGC's use of medium-range ballistic missiles for short-range targets, despite being launched from close proximity to Kuwait, suggests a potential depletion of their short-range missile inventory or issues with their ballistic missile launchers.
This implies a significant degradation of IRGC's conventional missile capabilities, possibly due to US and Israeli defense operations, making their military posture less flexible and more reliant on less efficient, longer-range systems for immediate threats.
Intelligence agencies could further investigate IRGC's missile inventory and production capabilities to identify specific weaknesses and inform future counter-proliferation strategies or targeted sanctions.
The Lebanese President, Joseph Aun, publicly condemned the IRGC for exploiting Lebanon through Hezbollah, a stance previously considered too risky for Lebanese leaders.
This shift indicates a potential weakening of Iran's regional influence and a growing willingness among Arab leaders, backed by the US and Israel, to openly challenge Iranian proxies, potentially leading to a realignment of power dynamics in the Levant.
Diplomatic efforts could capitalize on this shift to further isolate Hezbollah within Lebanon and support Lebanese sovereignty, potentially opening avenues for internal political reform and reducing Iranian leverage in the country.
Lessons
- Monitor official US government and military statements (e.g., US Central Command) for accurate updates on Middle East conflicts, as traditional media narratives may be contradictory.
- Assess geopolitical risks in the Middle East by understanding the US strategy of 'suffocating' the Iranian regime through economic and military pressure, rather than direct large-scale conflict.
- For businesses or individuals with interests in the Middle East, heed US State Department travel advisories, particularly the 'Do Not Travel' warnings for Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and Yemen.
Notable Moments
Footage of Iranian protesters chanting 'students would rather die than accept humiliation by the Islamic occupiers' and 'don't be afraid, we are all together' in multiple cities.
These chants demonstrate the deep-seated anger and defiance of the Iranian populace, particularly youth and students, against the ruling regime, highlighting the internal pressure the government faces.
The host ridicules an Iranian senior military adviser for publicly begging the US for $24 billion as a 'test of trust' for negotiations.
This moment underscores the perceived desperation of the Iranian regime for financial relief and the host's interpretation of their diplomatic overtures as disingenuous attempts to secure funds rather than genuine peace.
Quotes
"Students, we would rather die than accept humiliation by the Islamic occupiers."
"Don't be afraid. Don't be afraid. We are all together."
"Every problem in the Middle East tracks back to Iran. Hezbollah, Iran. Shia militias that are destroying and threatening Iraq, Iran. Hamas, Iran. The Houthis, Iran. The Assad when he was in Syria, Iran. The only kind the way I mean everywhere you turn, they're behind all of it. They are a destabilizing dangerous evil force that had to be dealt with. They have to be weakened."
"If Trump takes the negotiation seriously, $24 billion is not much to America. If he wants to reach an agreement with Iran, this $24 billion is a test of trust that Iran wants to have with Trump. This is a test that America must pass and the path will be open."
Q&A
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